Exploring Policy Design Complexity

1. Exploring the Complexity of Policy Design Rosário Macário and José Viegas Instituto Superior Técnico UniversidadeTécnica de Lisboa Duration: 48 months Started: November 2010 Finish: October 2014

2. Motivation • Integrated strategies are implemented through the combination of sectorial policies and measures to achieve cumulative positive effects or to mitigate negative effects of any of them. • Integrated strategies can accrue synergies between policies and/or measures and that is the main reason for policy packaging • Policy packaging can also occur to increase public acceptability, by adding some compensation to social groups who would otherwise clearly be losing. • Not a new problem ! … But design and implementation of integrated strategies is still a challenge since there are numerous barriers to concerted decision processes

3. Aim • The ultimate goal of the ExPoD project is to: • understand decision making processes in BRT systems and to • develop a formal structure for retrospective analysis of the various interplaying policy components, and • finally develop a systems dynamic model to search for well designed and promising policy packages.

4. Interactionwithother BRT ALC projects BRT system performance BRT ALC ExPod Decision processes and policy packaging Institutional design

5. ExPoDapproach Policies vs measures • A first step in this process is to obtain a clear view on different types of policies that can be devised. • From the outset we propose to define policies as public initiatives developed in different areas of responsibilities (or different decision areas, normally materialized by government bodies) with specific purposes and using measures as the main instruments of intervention. • In our definition one measurecan be the instrument of more than one policy and some examples of policy areas re: land use and transport policy; energy policy; fiscal policy; innovation and technology policy; etc. • In literature (as well as in practice) we find a very blurred distinction between policies and measures

6. The real world • The analysis of policy design and implementation require the understanding of a multi-agent complex system often with multiple levels of government • Policy packaging often means “cherry picking” components governed by different public sector areas, calling for negotiation and agreement whenever clear hierarchies are absent

7. Method • A set of case studies where retrospective analysis of the various interplaying policy components is possible so that we can deepen the understanding on barriers to policy design and causes for policy underperformance • The use of inductive case studies will allow us to grasp these relations and hopefully find some qualitative and quantitative elements in support of our analysis. • The qualitative and quantitative information obtained will be the input to induce a system dynamics model to support the design of policy packages.

8. Groupingmeasures to implement policies (I) • Life-style oriented measures, • where intervention is only of subsidiary help since the basic element is a change of attitude towards mobility and material consumption. Information and education play a strong role here since knowing the consequences (e.g. environmental damage, etc) of a given transport policy or the effect of certain transport choices may well influence behavioral change.; • Market oriented measures, • which assume that people are willing to change their lifestyle or mobility behavior if others do the same and no material disadvantage will result. In these cases measures like fiscal reforms or changed property rights might change the incentive structure. This approach relies on the public acceptance of price as a mechanism to allocate services and goods;

9. Groupingmeasures to implement policies (II) • Regulation oriented measures, • which rely upon legal and regulatory changes, technical standards and norms (e.g. speed limits, maximum weight of vehicles, etc), on innovative planning methodologies (e.g. spatial planning and transport impact assessment) and on government reform. In general this approach is rather rationalist although it can be tempered with strong participatory processes to provide the argumentative element; • Provision of public infrastructure and public transport services, • which is often adopted as a policy approach and seen as associated with regulation oriented policies, with which it is also often confused.

10. Criticalelements • The most critical element of this analysis is the ability to effectively assess performances, so that we can identify the best assembled policy packages and respective measures. • At the outset we consider that assessment has to cover both policies defined at the strategic level, and thus with a high level of abstraction, but also measures (policy materialization) defined at the tactical level (planning) and effectively implemented at the operational level, and by then with low (if any) level of abstraction • Feed-back cycles are the privileged instrument to assess the definition of strategic objectives against impacts and operational objectives against results and they rely on performance indicators

11. ExPoDpillars • The ExPoD project builds in three main pillars: • Decision-making processes • Policies and packages of measures • Agents’ behavior

12. Workstructure • WP1Literature review • WP2Exploratory survey • WP3Inductive Case studies • WP4Analytical research on policy packaging • WP5Design and implementation of SD tool • WP6Deductive Case studies • WP7 Guidelines on policy packaging for BRT systems

13. Preliminaryselectionof cases

14. Bus Rapid Transit Across Latitudes and CulturesVREF Center of Excellence Thankyou for yourattention ! Rosário Macário rosariomacario@civil.ist.utl.pt José Viegas viegas@civil.ist.utl.pt