“King Tide” on Sept. 29, 2015 Nag Marsh, Prudence Island, RI ( Photo credit : Daisy Durant)

1. “King Tide” on Sept. 29, 2015 Nag Marsh, Prudence Island, RI (Photo credit: Daisy Durant) “Ecosystems already under stress are likely to have more rapid and acute reactions to climate change; it is therefore useful to understand how multiple stresses will interact, especially as the magnitude of climate change increases.” Staudt et al. 2013. The added complications of climate change: understanding and managing biodiversity and ecosystems. Front Ecol Environ 11(9): 494-501.

2. Applying CCVATCH in RI – Project Planning Workshop • Objectives: • Provide an introduction to the Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool for Coastal Habitats • Describe the NERRS Science Collaborative science transfer project (regional context) • Plan for the application of CCVATCH in Rhode Island

3. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool for coastal habitats An Introduction

4. National Estuarine Research Reserves The National Estuarine Research Reserve System uses its living laboratories to find solutions to crucial issues facing America’s coasts, including climate change and resilience.

5. National Estuarine Research Reserves Brackish Stream Eelgrass Meadow Dune Salt Marsh Flatwoods Freshwater Stream Salt Marsh Mangrove Forested Wetlands Pitcher Plant Bog

6. CCVATCH Concept Climate Effects Adaptive Capacity Stressors HABITAT 0

7. CCVATCH Description CCVATCH is a spreadsheet based decision support tool which allows users to assess the potential for climate effects to directly affect habitats and interact with habitat stressors and adaptive capacity to affect the habitat’s function and ability to persist. Exposure The change in climate the habitat is likely to experience Sensitivity How the habitat is likely to be affected by climate exposure. Potential Impact Adaptive Capacity The potential to ameliorate the effects of exposure or sensitivity Vulnerability The degree to which the habitat is susceptible to adverse effects of climate change.

8. Exposure Anticipated change in climate attributes that will potentially influence the habitat • CO2 • Temperature • Precipitation change • Sea level change • Extreme climate events

9. Non-Climate Stressors Site conditions/factors that have been shown to impact the function or integrity of ecological habitats • CO2 • Temperature • Precipitation change • Sea level change • Extreme climate events • Invasive/nuisance Species • Nutrients • Sedimentation • Erosion • Environmental Contaminants

10. Adaptive Capacity Inherent traits or external factors that allows a habitat to adjust to a changing climate • CO2 • Temperature • Precipitation change • Sea level change • Extreme climate events • Degree of fragmentation • Barriers to migration • Recovery / regeneration ability • Diversity of functional groups • Invasive/nuisance Species • Nutrients • Sedimentation • Erosion • Environmental Contaminants • Management actions possible • Human / institutional response

11. CCVATCH Components • Scoring Spreadsheet • Numerical scores for sensitivity are entered for each climate X stressor for each habitat • A total sensitivity-exposure score is calculated for each habitat • Adaptive capacity scores are entered for each habitat • Certainty scores are assigned for each score entered • A matrix combines the sensitivity and adaptive capacity scores to create the overall vulnerability score

12. Certainty

13. CCVATCH Components Guidance Document • Background on impacts of stressors on habitats • Review of research on each climate X stressor interaction • Assessment questions • Scoring examples • List of literature, web, other resources • Example facilitation plan

14. CCVATCH Applications • Prioritize restoration & resiliency planning efforts and acquisition areas • Education and outreach to decision makers • Guide policy and funding decisions • Determine main sources of vulnerability • Compare vulnerability across geographic locations • Identify research and monitoring needs • Identify future timing of significant management decisions

15. Implementing CCVATCH in RI • NBNERR Management Plan Revision • Statewide Salt Marsh Habitat • NERRS Sentinel Site Monitoring • 2012-13 Salt Marsh Assessment (RISMA) • Spring 2014 Salt Marsh Symposium • 2015 Statewide Salt Marsh Map • RI Coastal Wetlands Restoration Strategy 2015

16. Salt Marsh Habitat

17. Salt Marsh Habitat Quonochontaug

18. Salt Marsh Habitat Rocky Hill

19. Salt Marsh Habitat Grotto Brook

20. Salt Marsh Habitat Coggeshall

21. Salt Marsh Habitat Blue Bill Cove

22. Exposure-Sensitivity

23. Exposure-Sensitivity

24. Exposure-Sensitivity

25. Exposure-Sensitivity ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

26. Adaptive Capacity Adaptive Capacity: Conditions present in a habitat (or likely to be in future) that ameliorate the sensitivity or exposure of the habitat or increase its resiliency ?

27. Resources

28. Facilitated Meetings for Scoring Environmental Contaminants Current Condition CO2: Temperature: Extreme Climate: Precipitation: Sea Level:

29. Facilitated Meetings for Scoring Environmental Contaminants Current Condition CO2: Temperature: • Presumed tolerance to historic and persistent levels of exposure however “cost” may be reduced ability to tolerate climatic stress • Increased contaminant uptake • Enhanced contaminant toxicity • Increase in pesticide exposure • Increased plant productivity may positively influence accretion rates Extreme Climate: Precipitation: Sea Level: • Short term seasonal drought concentrates contaminant levels beyond tolerance levels • Altered land use patterns may enhance exposure • Increased sensitivity to contaminants at elevated salinity levels • Greater risk of high levels of contaminant exposure due to runoff, coastal flooding

30. Certainty

31. Overall Vulnerability High Very Low Vulnerability Low Vulnerability Moderate Vulnerability ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Low Vulnerability Moderate Vulnerability High Vulnerability Moderate Vulnerability High Vulnerability Very High Vulnerability Low High SENSITIVITY-EXPOSURE

32. General Process

33. Acknowledgements Thanks to the following individuals who were instrumental in the early planning and development [Eric Brunden, Nina Garfield, Patty Glick, and Patty Delgado] and to members of the scientific community who took time to review and provide suggestions on this guidance document [Norm Christensen, Scott Neubauer, R.E. Turner, and Mike Unger]. The development of this tool was made possible, in part, through a pilot project funded by a NERRS Science Collaborative Grant entitled Improving management of coastal habitats: Testing a tool to assess the vulnerability of coastal habitats to climate change impacts.

34. NSC Science Transfer Grant Implementing CCVATCH in the Northeast

35. General Process • Share Resources, Outreach Product Development Regional Regional Regional Regional

36. Regional Process • Assemble Team and Hold Pre-meeting to Assign Research, ID Data Needs • Compile and Review Resources, Research, Information Sources 1. Reserves share task of identifying information sources/data needs and compile draft NE resource document 2. Reserves work with local partners to apply CCVATCH at their sites; new information sources/data are added to draft NE resource document 3. NE resource document finalized and distributed; represents current ‘state of knowledge’ regarding climate change impacts on assessed habitats in the NE

37. Regional Process • Hold Facilitated Meetings for Scoring

38. Regional Process • Share Resources, Outreach Product Development • Finalized Northeast regional resource document is posted to www.ccvatch.com to provide general ‘state of knowledge’ and support CCVATCH applications by other agencies • Relative vulnerabilities of assessed habitats at individual Reserves are used for decision support (e.g. restoration, acquisition, etc.); case studies are conveyed through a variety of formats to other Reserves and potential user groups • Relative vulnerability scores across multiple habitats are translated into fact sheets or technical reports to communicate regional climate change impacts to coastal decision makers • Identified research needs are available and posted to www.ccvatch.com; serve as a resource to inform build-out of NERRS initiatives (e.g. Sentinel Site program) and are distributed to universities, funding agencies as appropriate

39. Acknowledgement This work is sponsored by the National Estuarine Research Reserve System Science Collaborative, which supports collaborative research that addresses coastal management problems important to the reserves. The Science Collaborative is funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and managed by the University of Michigan Water Center.

40. Questions? Robin Weber, Stewardship Coordinator Narragansett Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve robin@nbnerr.org; 401.683.7369

41. RI Project Logistics • Frequency/duration of meetings • One/month, as needed • Half day, full day • Team structure • Team lead(s), notetakers • Limited (4-6/day), unlimited (all available) • Expert elicitation process • Team participation • Personal interview, on-line survey • Data collection & resource review • Team member assignment by stressor, habitat • Resource document build-out & sharing • Format: full abstracts, brief summaries by reference, overview of all available references