Use of Regional Climate Models in Impacts Assessments and

1. Use of Regional Climate Models in Impacts Assessments and Adaptations Studies From continental to regional and local scale The CREAS (Cenários Climáticos REgionalizados de Mudança de Clima para América do Sul) initiative in South America Jose A. Marengo CPTEC/INPE Sao Paulo, Brazil 2005

2. Project strategy summary To provide high resolution climate change scenarios in the three hot spots (most populated and economically important basins in South America: Amazon, Sao Francisco and Parana-La Plata) in South America for development of studies that should lead to raising awareness among government and policy makers in assessing climate change impact, vulnerability and in designing adaptation measures.

3. Amazonia: land use changes and impacts on climate and hydrology, population and biodiversity GEWEX-LBA project: -Physical climate and surface hydrology -Water chemistry -Carbon -Atmospheric chemistry -Biogeochemistry -Human dimensions

4. Limitations of climate projections from AOGCM Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCMs) are the modeling tools traditionally used for generating climate change projections and scenarios. The horizontal atmospheric resolution of present day AOGCMs is still relatively coarse, order of 300 km, and regional climate is often affected by forcings and circulations that occur at smaller scales. As a result, AOGCMs cannot explicitly capture the fine scale structure that characterizes climatic variables in many regions of the world and that is needed for many impact assessment studies. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are useful tools for generating high resolution climate change scenarios for use in climate impacts and adaptation studies.

5. Why regional models? The issue of the spatial resolution in scenarios must be put in the context of other uncertainties of climate change. Studies and analyses of climate change impact and adaptation assessments recognize that there are a number of sources of uncertainty in such studies which contribute to uncertainty in the final assessment. The importance of high resolution climate scenarios for impacts and adaptation studies remains to be thoroughly explored in Brazil and South America. Most of these activities have been linked to implementation of scenarios for the UNFCC National Communications on Climate Change at the country level (PRECIS). In studies so far, mainly concerning agriculture and water resources, significant differences in the estimated impacts based on spatial resolution are found. So far it has been explicitly demonstrated that the necessary adaptation measures varies with the spatial resolution. And of course, this point could be deduced from the fact that the level of impacts varies.

6. Applying regional climate change scenarios to impact studies: Experiences in South America: The CREAS project An initiative from Brazil has been the implementation of CREAS (Regional Climate Change Scenarios for South America). CREAS is being established as consequence of a GEF-Ministry of Environment/PROBIO project lead by CPTEC in Brazil for studies on impacts of climate change in natural ecosystems in Brazil (PROBIO). Additional funding for CREAS comes from the GOF-UK CLIMATE CHANGE & ENERGY PROGRAMME: Using Regional Climate Change Scenarios for Studies on Vulnerability and Adaptation in Brazil and South America, and the National Climate Change Program from the Ministry of Science and Technology. This project aims to provide high resolution climate change scenarios in the three most populated basins in South America for raising awareness among government and policy makers in assessing climate change impact, vulnerability and in designing adaptation measures.

7. Regional climate change scenarios in South America other regions CREAS (Cenários REgionalizados de Mudanças de Clima para América do Sul or Regional Climate Change Scenarios for South America)

8. CREAS objectives • To produce high resolution climate change scenarios for 2071-2100 for South America (hopefully, other time slices too) • To assess the uncertainty in South American regional climate change scenarios produced by various regional climate models. • To quantitatively assess the risks arising from changes in regional climate over South America, • To estimate changes in extremes like intense rainfall, heat waves, flooding and wind storms, by providing a robust estimation of the likelihood and magnitude of the changes • To demonstrate the value of the wide-ranging scenarios by applying them to impacts models focusing on effects on adaptation and mitigation strategies for key sectors (agriculture, conservation, hydroelectricity, health, tourism, etc.) • To provide climatic information usable to assess socio-economic and policy related decisions for which such improved scenarios could be beneficial, and to interact with government agencies, policy makers and stake holders for assessments of vulnerability • To collaborate (not to interfere) with other countries in the implementation of their National Communications to UNFCC by providing regional climate change scenarios for their domains

9. Vulnerability Documentation on current exposure to climate risks/hazards (climate variability) Actual vulnerability Climate-hydrological modeling Assessments of actual adaptative capacity Assessments of changes in future exposition to climatic risks Socio-economical studies Future Vulnerability Assessments of future adaptative capacity Implementation of measurements of adaptation to climate change and reduction of vulnerability

10. Impacts on natural ecosystems Source: E. Salati-FBDS

11. Motivation Both Brazil and other countries in the region would benefit greatly from this initiative, as it would provide more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties by increasing the range of future climate projections (i.e. plausible representations of the future and not merely predictions of the future) available to all. Furthermore, the concept of stakeholder and policy maker engagement in natural sciences research in Brazil is undergoing initial and incipient development. Traditionally, engagement of those actors has been the ground of the social sciences. However, it is very clear that the road connecting scientific knowledge to policy making and implementation has not been fully paved as yet in Brazil, but it is mandatory if the results of environmental science are effectively to benefit society.

12. How is the downscaling to be done?. CREAS PLAN A1B, A2, B2 Scenarios HaDAM3 link to NAARCAP and PRUDENCE ?? ?? ECHAM 5 Provide bounding conditions 2040-2070 future 1960-1990 current RAMS FUNCEME REMO Max Planck Int. Eta/ CPTEC CPTEC/Brazil HADRM3 Hadley Centre MM5 CIMA/Argentina RegCM3 USP/Brazil UNFCC FUNCEME/ CPTEC CLARIS-EU Being done at CPTEC

13. CREAS- Regional Climate Change Scenarios for S. America-Strategy Global IPCC models (HadCM3) Future scenarios IPCC A2, B2 Baseline 1961-90 Modelos de IPCC: HadAM3P Maps of climate change A2, B2 minus basline, 2071-2100 and other time slices Baseline regional models 1961-90 Modelos regionais Downscaling Maps of climate change A2, B2 for 2071-2100, and other time slices (South America, countries, and other regions) Eta/CPTEC 40 km RegCM3/USP 50 km HadRM3/PRECIS 50 km

14. CREAS- Regional Climate Change Scenarios for S. America-Strategy IPCC global models (HadAM3P) Users and decision makers government and policy makers society, NGO, academics Socieconomic development Adaptation and mitigation measures Vulnerability Assessments Downscaling (40-50 km) RCM (Eta, RegCM3,HadRM3) Impacts of climate change Detection and attribution Development and Applications Products: (Paper, digital and GIS) -Maps of climate change projections for time slices, A2, B2 (and uncertainties) -Reports, publications…. .. Capacity building Regional climate change scenarios: A2, B2, 2071-2100 and other time slices, 3 regional models -Science -Training and capacity building

15. How to approach scientific and non scientific community? In this project, we envisage a three-pronged approach to engage stakeholder and policy makers with its results for effective use of more credible regional scenarios of climate change for South America. a) Firstly, we are going to influence government policy makers in charge of implementing nationally the global environmental conventions, and the Forum Brasileiro de Mudanças Climaticas and other environmental programs in Brazil and other countries involved; b) Secondly, we are participating in climate change fora in Brazil and in some international meetings projects on Amazonia and the La Plata Basin, to broadly divulge project results to stakeholders from many sectors of society; and, c) Thirdly, we are going to organize two meetings with stakeholders from government and private sectors for all countries involved (2006 and 2007).

16. Expected products and deliverables • Development and transferability of methods for assessing consequences of climate change • Vulnerability indicators of societal impacts • Development of protocols and guidelines • Future scenarios for agricultural production • Future scenarios for hydroelectric operations and development • Future scenarios for water demand for human settling • Future scenarios for health and disease spread • Future scenarios of wind and solar energy potential • Capacity building, training and educational activities including publication of educational materials, web sites and GIS material • Development of “white papers” jointly between scientists and policy makers • Integrated regional data sets ready to be used in GIS • …..

17. Participants Partners: CPTEC (leader), USP, EMBRAPA, ANA, ONS, FBDS, UFRGS, INMET, FIO-Brazil; Argentina (INTA, UBA/CIMA); Peru (SENAMHI, UNALM, IGP); Ecuador (INAMHI); Bolivia (SENAMHI); Colombia (IDEAM); Uruguay (INA, SMN); Paraguay (DHN). Itaipu Binational (Paraguay-Brazil), Salto Grande (Uruguay), Yacireta (Paraguay-Argentina). Look for contacts with hydroelectric operators in Colombia, Ecuador, Peru. The project also entails strong scientific collaboration with the UK Hadley Centre in sharing knowledge and capacity for the implementation of climate change scenarios at a more detailed and precise scale than is currently being done. The project also looks for strong collaboration with international programs suc as the Global Water System Project (GWSP) for understanding how society can best adapt to future climate changes.

18. Expected impact The availability of regional climate change models for contrasting scenarios such as the A2 (high emissions) and B2 (low emissions) and the provision of these scenarios to government authorities will potentially impact on decision and policy making. We expect that developed climate change impact modelling will be applied at both the basin and state levels, using suggested vulnerability analyses and adaptation measures. It is also expected that the models will be relevant and useful to countries in the three hot spots and activities (Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador, Colombia, Paraguay and Uruguay), as these countries will have access to data and any other generated product as requested.

19. New developments (GOF + LBA) The GOF-UK project Using Regional Climate Change Scenarios for Studies on Vulnerability and Adaptation in Brazil and South America has been recently recognized as ENDORSED PROJECT pf the ESSE-Global Water System Project GWSP. Collaboration with LBA: Use of regional climate change projections for the LBA Amazon Scenarios for integrated modelling studies on global change (GHG gases+aerosols+land use changes+socioeconomics). This will provide all of us with more visibility among the international programs that work on the issues of climate change, water resources, and the applications for vulnerability and impacts as well as for the involvement of policy makers and stake holders

20. Documents Produced: Relatorio 1 PROBIO-GEF

21. Documents Produced: Newsletter No.1 Boletim do Projeto GOF UK CPTEC