Step 2 Draft a set of four prototype regional scenarios

1. Scenarios to Aid RegionalFood Security Policy FormulationBased on “Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean”(GECAFS Report No. 2)John Ingram1, Thomas Henrichs2, Polly Ericksen1, Monika Zurek31 GECAFS International Project Office, Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, UK john.ingram@eci.ox.ac.uk & polly.ericksen@eci.ox.ac.uk2 National Environmental Research Institute, Denmark thhe@dmu.dk3 Food and Agriculture Organisation of the UN (FAO), Italy monika.zurek@fao.org Regional Scenario Analyses Scenario analyses conducted at regional level help to systematically explore policy and technical options for improving food security in the face of environmental and other stresses. They provide a suitable framework for (i) raising awareness of key environmental and policy concerns; (ii) discussing viable adaptation options; and (iii) analysing the possible consequences of different adaptation options for food security and environmental goals. In 2005 the international research project “Global Environmental Change and Food Systems” (GECAFS), in collaboration with FAO, MA, EEA and UNEP, and with funding from ICSU and UNESCO, developed a set of prototype scenarios for researching the interactions between food security and environmental change at the Caribbean regional level. The exercise involved four main steps. Food Security: Components & Determinants Food security is when “all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (FAO, 1996). Food security is based on three components (i) food availability; (ii) food access; and (iii) food utilisation. Each component has a number of main “determinants” (shown in italics). Step 1 Identify key regional GEC and policy issues through stakeholder consultation workshops involving regional scientists and policymakers Step 2 Draft a set of four prototype regional scenarios based on the broad rationale, assumptions and outcomes of the MA scenarios exercise, but allowing for regional deviation where needed GEC Drivers Example for land use change Socioeconomic Drivers Example for regional cooperation and politics • Main GEC Issues • Climate variability & extreme events • Water availability • Land degradation • Sea currents & salinity • Biodiversity loss • Sea level rise • Main Policy Issues • Regional cooperation • Food security and self-sufficiency • Trade policies and competitiveness • Exporting quality produce & processed products • Poverty in rural communities The region is heavily dependent on food imports which provide a mixed diet for the majority, but locally-produced roots, tubers & fish are the main foods for a significant minority. Step 3 Describe and systematically assess developments per scenario for key each food security determinant Example for three “determinants” of Food Access Step 4 Plot and compare each assessment of food security outcomes using the food security “determinants” as axes • Key Outcomes • Raised awareness of GEC with policy-makers and other stakeholders • Raised awareness of policy issues and process with GEC researchers • Integrated information from different fields to explore possible developments • Systematically structured debate relating to environmental issues and food security • Science-policy regional “team” built based on shared vision, understanding and trust • Global-to-regional scenario downscaling method tested www.gecafs.org