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Triennial Review of the Emission Inventory SB 2174 Public Workshop November 2000

This workshop provides an overview of the SB 2174 emission inventory, its purposes, data improvements, and accessibility. It also discusses the roles and responsibilities of various agencies, improved data systems, and better emission estimation models.

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Triennial Review of the Emission Inventory SB 2174 Public Workshop November 2000

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  1. Triennial Review of the Emission InventorySB 2174 Public WorkshopNovember 2000 California Air Resources Board

  2. Agenda • Introductions • Overview of SB 2174 • Purpose of the Inventory • The Vision - What we are aiming for • Today’s 2000 Emission Inventory • Verification

  3. ARB Contacts • Dennis Goodenow (Stationary & Area Sources) (916) 445-4292 dgoodeno@arb.ca.gov • Dilip Patel (EMFAC 2000) (626) 450-6141 dpatel@arb.ca.gov • Archana Agrawal (Off-Road) (626) 450-6136 aagrawal@arb.ca.gov • Bob Effa (Ambient Verification) (916) 323-4950 beffa@arb.ca.gov • Brad Crane (Ambient Verification) (916) 322-2340 bcrane@arb.ca.gov

  4. ARB Contacts (Cont.) • Robert Gammariello (Mobile Source Verification) (626) 450-6138 rgammari@arb.ca.gov • Dale Shimp (Biogenics & Stationary Verification) (916) 324-7156 dshimp@arb.ca.gov • ARB Web Site: • http://www.arb.ca.gov

  5. SB 2174 Overview

  6. SB 2174 Overview • What does SB 2174 require • What sources are included • What pollutants are included • What products are we taking to the Board

  7. The Purposes of the Emission Inventory

  8. The Purposes of the Emission Inventory • Control Strategy Development • SIP Planning • Rule Development • SIP Tracking • Public Notification

  9. The Vision for tomorrow

  10. Data Improvements and Standardization • Definition of Facility • Numbering Convention • Criteria and Toxic Data Merged • Power Plants • Refineries • QIP

  11. Interactive WEB Sites • CEIDARS III • New Forecast System

  12. Greater Public Accessibility • Emission Inventory data on the WEB • Forecast data is available • Community Inventories • Risk Data on the WEB

  13. GIS-Based Emission Inventory • Looking to develop Emission Inventory using GIS • PM categories are there now • All Source categories - Mobile, Stationary, Area-wide, etc,

  14. Comprehensive Data Integration • Toxics Data • Criteria Emissions Inventory Data • Compliance Data • Permit Data • Ambient Air Quality Data

  15. Multi-media Is An Option • CAL-EPA’s Goals • We are one of the pilots • US EPA is on track

  16. Today’s 2000 Emission Inventory

  17. Roles and Responsibilities • ARB • Districts • Other State and Local Agencies • US EPA

  18. Over 25 years of doing Emission Inventories • ARB and Districts working together • COGs, MPO, and Cal-Trans • Other State Agencies

  19. Improved Data Systems • CEIDARS II • CEIDARS-Lite • HARP • QIP

  20. More Detailed Categories • Over 800 EICs • Fuel type is available • Equipment type is available • The new PCC system

  21. Improved Emission Estimation Models • Area Source Model • EMFAC 2000 • Off-Road • Biogenics

  22. Better Data Presentation • Standard Reports • WEB Presentation • Custom maps

  23. STATEWIDE 1995 ANNUAL AVERAGE EMISSIONS INVENTORY (TONS/DAY)

  24. STATEWIDE 2000 ANNUAL AVERAGE EMISSIONS INVENTORY (TONS/DAY)

  25. Statewide ChangesNOx for 2000

  26. Statewide ChangesROG for 2000

  27. Emission Inventory Categorization • Stationary Sources • Area-wide Sources • Mobile Sources –- On-Road –- Other-Mobile • Non-Anthropogenic Sources

  28. Stationary Sources Refineries Manufacturing Food processing Electric utilities Chemical production

  29. Stationary Sources contd. Gas ‘Em Fast Aggregated Point Point

  30. Area-WideSources Farming Paved & unpavedroad dust Solvents Consumerproducts Open burning

  31. What Data Are Available • Point Sources • Facility Data • Device Data • Stack Data • Process Data • Emissions Data

  32. What Data Are Available (cont) • Area Sources – Process Data – Emissions Data • Forecasted Emissions

  33. How To Access The Data • ARB WEB • Standard Reports • Call for Custom Reports

  34. The QA/QC Process • Systematic Checks • Manual Review of Data • Reliability Studies • Cross checks

  35. Forecasted and Seasonal Inventories • Base-year Emissions • Growth Assumptions • Control Factors • CEFS Processing

  36. California’s EMFAC2000 Model Overview and Status Report

  37. Status of California’s On-RoadEmissions Inventory Model • Objective: • Develop a seamless, integrated, internally consistent, highly resolved and flexible platform for the estimation of emissions and the relative benefits of emission control strategies • EMFAC2000 adopted by the board in May of this year pending the incorporation of staff recommended modifications • Model finalized last month

  38. Statewide Emissions Inventory(Year 2000)

  39. Significant Changes in Emission Factors • Model run on a UC basis • Incorporation of latest test data • Re-definition of evaporative processes • Re-evaluation of I/M • Reflection of recently adopted standards • Addition of A/C effects

  40. Significant Changes in Emission Factors • Addition of effects of humidity • Non-linear treatment of deterioration • Revision to speed adjustment factors • Chassis based HDV inventory • Addition of Idle emission rates for HDVs • Addition of off-cycle NOx and PM • Addition of PM 2.5 emission rates

  41. Significant Changes in Activity • Hourly activity estimates • County specific registration and accrual • Revised temperature profiles • Addition of humidity profiles • Re-examination of VMT • Extended age distribution • Class specific speed distribution

  42. Significant Changes in Activity • Expanded technology groups • Use of “time-on” and “time-off” matrix • Expanded vehicle class definitions

  43. Expanded Capabilities Ability to calculate: • County specific • Monthly specific • Hourly specific • Technology group specific • Age specific Emissions rates and/or inventories

  44. What Have We Learned? • Estimation of activity is as important, or more important than estimation of emissions • Increase in inventory signifies: • Underestimation of deterioration • Overestimation of in-use program benefit • Over-optimistic assumptions related to new standards

  45. Comparative Pass Car Inventory Hydrocarbon Exhaust (SCAB)

  46. Comparative Pass Car Inventory Evaporative Hydrocarbon (SCAB)

  47. Comparative Pass Car Inventory Carbon Monoxide (SCAB)

  48. Comparative Pass Car Inventory Oxides of Nitrogen (SCAB)

  49. What’s on the Horizon? • Consistent facility and trip based emission estimates • Trip chaining (exhaust and evaporative) • Geographical information system platform • GPS information • Revisions to activity information • Grade adjustment factors • Cross county VMT • Spatial allocation of starts and soaks • Weekday / weekend activity for ozone modeling

  50. What’s on the Horizon? • Addition of toxics • Addition of greenhouse gases (NH3/N20) • Addition of Non-fuel related evaporative emissions • More extensive use of BAR datasets • Expansion of vehicle classes and fuel types • Revisions to projected in-use emission rates • Development of “what if?” Analysis tools

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