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System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling;

System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling; Linking European Science and Society Integrated Project EU FP6 Theme 1.6.3 Global Change and Ecosystems Martin van Ittersum Wageningen University, The Netherlands. WP leaders and co-leaders. •. •. •. •. UNEW. NLH. LU. FLD. •. •.

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System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling;

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  1. System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling; Linking European Science and SocietyIntegrated Project EU FP6 Theme 1.6.3 Global Change and Ecosystems Martin van Ittersum Wageningen University, The Netherlands

  2. WP leaders and co-leaders

  3. • • • • UNEW NLH LU FLD • • Simulistics L UEAB • UEDIN • UNIABD • TEAGASC • NUI Galway • UBER • ZALF • UBonn • WU • Alterra • LEI • SGGW • PRI • ILE ASCR • VUZE • UEvora • INRA • CIRAD • • • - CRA IDSIA SUPSI IAMM Mali: IER USA: UVM • • • JRC AntOptima Cemagref

  4. Contents • Call EU-FP6 – Agriculture for Sustainable Development • SEAMLESS Integrated Project • SEAMLESS versus SENSOR • Some experiences

  5. 1. Theme 1.6.3 call Call for IP EU Framework Programme 6 Theme 1.1.6.3 Global Change and Ecosystems V. Strategies for sustainable land management Topic V.1.1.a Sustainable use of land -Enhanced impact assessment and management tools for sustainable land use with a multifunctional approach Topic V.2.1.a Agriculture for Sustainable Development – Farming system management and multifunctional use of agriculture and agro-forestry to implement the Sustainable Development Strategy

  6. 1. Call requirements • Capabilities to: • Analyze behavioural changes of main categories of farming systems in relation to rural development options • ‘Measure’ multiple functions of agriculture and internalize them into policy analysis • Assess interactions between EU, associated candidate countries and rest of the world • Bottom-up and top-down analysis

  7. 2. Call interpretation – scientific view • Research has been: • partial in issues; • partial in scales; • partial in disciplines; • ad hoc in its software solutions; • developing models and procedures for specific usages and with poor re-usability; • insufficiently targeting at users. …. .Fragmentation and poor re-usability…. Fantastic challenge and opportunity to work on breakthroughs via FP6

  8. 2. Call interpretation - SEAMLESS-IF • We propose an integrated framework offering a generic, flexible, modular and operational structure that enables: • analysis at the full range of scales • analysis of the environmental, economic and social contributions of a multifunctional agriculture • analysis of a broad range of issues and agents of change Ex-ante assessment of agricultural, environmental and rural development policies

  9. 2. Operational (example) questions • Effects of (economic) policies at EU level and WTO regulations => Top-down analysis • Changes driven by environmental policies and technological innovation at various scales => Bottom-up analysis • Examples: • Price policies milk and sugar and effect within EU and DCs • Nitrate Directive and effects on farms and regions • Cross-compliance policies and effects in EU-25 • Climate change, options for mitigation and adaptation, including biomass production • Within EU-25, but also interactions with the rest of the world

  10. Which agriculture in 2010 and where in Europe ? EU and NUTS-2 level Thomas Heckelei

  11. How will EU and WTO cotton policy impact on Mali’s agriculture? Will 2200 farm households still live there? Agricultural Region/Landscape Odra river – Pyrzice Region - Poland A typical landscape in Mali E. Majewski B. Rapidel

  12. Will protecting the water resources reduce competitiveness of 50 000 ha of grain crops? Watershed/Natural resources Odrariver – Pyrzice Region - Poland E. Majewski

  13. 2. SEAMLESS-Integrated Framework What does it comprise: • Indicators and assessment procedures • Quantitative models and tools • Knowledge base: data, models, ‘experiments’ • Software architecture: integration and re-use of data and models • Procedures for testing and improving • Procedures for user involvement: the process

  14. 2. Users • Prime users: EC • Other users: national and regional policy agencies • Research community • Derive questions and indicators interactively

  15. Global Global Global Continental Continental Continental National National National Regional Regional Regional Farm Farm Farm Field Field Field 2. Multiple scale capabilities - SD

  16. Choose indicators OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK Example: sugar policy reform OK

  17. Global GTAP GTAP Continental & CAPRI – Market module CAPRI – Market module National NDICATORS NDICATORS NDICATORS Regional CAPRI - Regional module LANDSCAPE Models CAPRI - Regional module LANDSCAPE Models I I I Farm FarmSystemSIMulator FarmSystemSIMulator Field AgriculturalProductionExternalitiesSimulator AgriculturalProductionExternalitiesSimulator 2. Multiple scale assessment capabilities Dashboard: assessment and presentation of multiple indicators Other procedures to assess quantitative and qualitative indicators CAPRI: Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact analysis GTAP: Global Trade Analysis Project

  18. Sustainability Impact Assessment: Tools for ENvironmental, Social and EcOnomic Effects of Multifunctional Land Use in European Regions Coordinator: ZALF, Leibnitz Centre for Agricultural Landscape and Land Use Research, Müncheberg, Germany System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling; Linking European Science and Society Coordinator: Wageningen University, The Netherlands Plant Production Systems 3. SEAMLESS and SENSOR Integrated Projects

  19. Tourism Conservation Nature Agriculture Forestry Transport Energy Global Continental SEAMLESS National SENSOR Regional Farm Field 3. Relationships between SEAMLESS and SENSOR

  20. 4. Some experiences • Science • Unprecedented collaboration of scientists across disciplines and scales of analysis • Methodologies for integration for this hardly exist • Potentials: • breakthroughs in modeling agricultural systems • modular system and software allows re-use • Risks: • carrying too much detail from field/farm to European and scale; • missing emerging properties at higher scales • Research management and efficiency • Enormous communication efforts needed (>150 scientists): emails, intranet, traveling • Partner research agendas may not match this degree of ‘seamless’ integration

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