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E missions from A viationAERO. AERO Modelling System. Hans Pulles ICAO Briefing to UNFCCC SBSTA22 Bonn, May 2005. E missions from A viation AERO. Overview of AERO modelling system. E missions from A viation AERO. AERO Data.

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Emissions from AviationAERO

AERO Modelling System

Hans Pulles

ICAO Briefing to UNFCCC SBSTA22

Bonn, May 2005


Emissions from Aviation AERO

Overview of AERO modelling system


Emissions from Aviation AERO

AERO Data

  • Unified database built from 4 independent databases; base year 1992

  • Model system verified for 1992 and 1997/1998 (including economics)

  • Comparison year with UNFCCC data: 1999

  • Results …………


Emissions from AviationAERO2K

AERO2KAviation Emissions Inventory for 2002 and 2025

Chris Eyers

ICAO Briefing to UNFCCC SBSTA22

Bonn, May 2005

DLR■Manchester Metropolitan University■NLR■DTI■Airbus France■EUROCONTROL■QinetiQ


Emissions from Aviation AERO2K

AERO2k Overview

  • An inventory of global aviation emissions for the year 2002 based on:

    • an aircraft movements database

    • aircraft fuel usage predictions,

    • engine emissions data.

  • A forecast of global aviation emissions for 2025 based on predicted aircraft movements

  • A tool to assess aviation emissions now and in the future

DLR■Manchester Metropolitan University■NLR■DTI■Airbus France■EUROCONTROL■QinetiQ


Emissions from Aviation AERO2K

The AERO2k Inventory

  • AERO2K creates a database of global aviation emissions for the year 2002 based on:

    • Actual 2002 aircraft movements database

    • Updated aircraft fuel usage predictions based on PIANO modelling tool

    • Updated engine emissions data

    • New particulate and distance flown data

  • AERO2k produces a forecast of global emissions for 2025 based on predicted aircraft movements

  • Based on publicly available data

  • Uses latest available data from DLR Fuel Flow method

DLR■Manchester Metropolitan University■NLR■DTI■Airbus France■EUROCONTROL■QinetiQ


Emissions from Aviation AERO2K

AERO2K – Data Integration

DLR■Manchester Metropolitan University■NLR■DTI■Airbus France■EUROCONTROL■QinetiQ


Emissions from Aviation AERO2K

Allocation onto global grid

  • Fuel and emissions are allocated onto global grids.

  • The method determines length of path flown in each cell (e.g. blue line on flight path shown).

  • Fuel and emissions allocated accordingly.

latitude

longitude

DLR■Manchester Metropolitan University■NLR■DTI■Airbus France■EUROCONTROL■QinetiQ


Emissions from Aviation AERO2K

Forecast for 2025

  • Factors or methods describing:

    • change of fuel burn (sfc),

    • change of emissions characteristics,

    • selection of aircraft types (based on ASK & load factor),

    • uplift on numbers of movements

  • Factors specific to regions

  • Factors produced by UK DTI (in conjunction with Airbus) are applied within the AERO2k software tool to produce a forecast of global emissions for 2025

DLR■Manchester Metropolitan University■NLR■DTI■Airbus France■EUROCONTROL■QinetiQ


Emissions from Aviation AERO2K

Improvements over previous inventories

  • Other inventories (ANCAT/EC2, NASA, AERO, FAST, AEM, Corinair etc) exist and all have their specific application

  • AERO2K aims to provide the “best available” aviation emissions data, via:

    • Improved routing assumptions and representation of flight profiles for present day traffic

    • Updated and improved methodologies for determining fuel usage

    • New inventory parameters e.g. flown distances per grid cell per hour (for contrail impact analysis) and CO/HC and particle number emission indices

DLR■Manchester Metropolitan University■NLR■DTI■Airbus France■EUROCONTROL■QinetiQ


Emissions from Aviation AERO2K

Applications

  • AERO2K software tool can be re-run or developed further to produce, for example,

    • selected datasets (eg national emissions)

    • other forecasts (eg using FESG forecast)

    • other base years or forecast years

    • comparison of data with other inventories/methodologies

DLR■Manchester Metropolitan University■NLR■DTI■Airbus France■EUROCONTROL■QinetiQ


Emissions from Aviation AERO2K

AERO2k Overview

  • Gridded 4D emissions results:

    • 2002 inventory

    • 2025 forecast

  • Results available at:

    http://www.cate.mmu.

    ac.uk/aero2k.asp

  • Results by Country to follow ……………..

Gridded fuel data (total mass) for one full day

NOx - 2002 internal and Eastbound traffic from Europe

DLR■Manchester Metropolitan University■NLR■DTI■Airbus France■EUROCONTROL■QinetiQ


AERO2K


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