World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water

1. Climate Information forAdaptation and Risk ManagementOpen Panel of CCl Experts – 4 (OPACE – 4) World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water • WMO WMO www.wmo.int

2. WMO CCl Structure 15th Intersessional Period 2010-2013 CCl-CAgM-CHy Working Group on Climate Food and Water Task Team on Climatological Normals President Dr Thomas Peterson (USA, RA IV) Vice President Serhat Sensoy (Turkey, RA VI) Rapporteur to reviewthe Guide to Climatological Practices Expert Team on Strategy for Capacity Building for Climate Services Expert Group on Quality Management for Climatology OPACE 4 Climate Informationfor Adaptation andRisk Management Co-Chairs: Dr Rodney Martinez (Ecuador, RA III) Dr Albert Martis (N. Antilles, RA IV) OPACE 1 Climate Data Management Co-Chairs: Dr Song Lianchun (China, RA II) Dr William Wright (Australia, RA V) OPACE 2 Climate Monitoring and Assessment Co-Chairs: Dr Fatima Driouech (Morocco, RA I) Dr Manola Brunet (Spain, RA VI) OPACE 3 Climate Products andServices and their Delivery Mechanisms Co-Chairs: Dr Kiyoharu Takano (Japan, RA II) Dr Jean-P. Céron (France, RA VI) Management Group 1.1 Expert Team on Climate Data Base Management Systems 2.1 Joint CCl-CLIVAR-JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection & Indices 3.1 CCl-CBS Expert Team on Regional Climate Centers 4.1 Expert Team on Climate Risk & Sector-Specific Climate Indices 3.2 Task Team on CLIPS Evolution 2.2 Joint Rapporteurs on World Weather and Climate Extreme Records 1.2. Task Team on Data Rescue 4.2 Task Team on User Participation in Climate Outlook Forums 3.3 Task Team on Global Seasonal Climate Update 1.3. Task Team on Observational Standards and Practices 2.3 Task Team on National Climate Monitoring Products 4.3 Task Team on User Interface 4.4 Task Team on Climate Risk Management 2.4 Task Team on Definitions of Extreme Weather and Climate Events OPACE:Open PAnel of CCl Experts

3. Climate Information for Adaptation and Risk Management: OPACE 4 Structure Co-chairs: • Dr. Rodney Martinez (Ecuador) and • Dr. Albert Martis (Netherlands Antilles) Teams: • Expert Team on Climate Risk and Sector-specific Climate Indices (ET-CRSCI) …Lisa Alexander • Task Team on User Participation in Climate Outlook Forums(TT- UPCOF) …Brad Lyon • Task Team on User Interface(TT-UI)…Roger Stone • Task Team on Climate Risk Management(TT-CRM)…Deborah Hemming

4. Climate Information forAdaptation and Risk Management: Objectives and Core Activities of CCl OPACE 4 Objective: to improve decision-making for planning, operations, risk management and for adaptation to both climate change and variability (from seasonal to centennial) Achieved through: a higher level of climate knowledge, and by access to and use of actionable information and products, tailored to meet user’s needs. Better decisions enabled through: provider-user liaison, dialogue, response Priority sectors:agriculture/food security and water resources (in multidisciplinary effort with partners, supported by CAgM and CHy) Over time:health, energy, tourism, transportation, finance/insurance, urban, coastal... In contribution to: the Climate User Interface Platform of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS).

5. ET – CRSCI Expected Deliverables • A collection and analysis of existing sector-specific climate indices with particular (Agriculture, water and DRR) applications at national and regional scales • Methods and tools, standardized software and associated training materials required to produce new sector-specific climate indices for systematic assessment of the impact of climate variability and change and to facilitate climate risk management and adaptation (to be done in collaboration with WMO Technical Commissions, particularly CCl OPACE II and with relevant agencies and organizations if required) • Technical publication on climate indices for sectoral application in risk assessment and adaptation • Pilot training workshop (one region) on development of the indices • Workshop Report/Publication

6. TT – UPCOFExpected Deliverables • Guidance and promotional material to enhance user participation in Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) and in post-COF user interaction • Review and assessment of the approaches in the existing and ongoing user outlook forums (e.g. MALOF, HYDROF) • Guidance and promotional materials, for the use of sectoral agencies, on the establishment and operation of sector-focused, sector-driven outlook forums in conjunction with Climate Outlook Forums (COFs), particularly the water resources management and agriculture/food security sectors (to be done in collaboration with relevant agencies, organizations and WMO Technical Commissions, particularly CHy and CAgM) • Specific proposals to establish a number of sector-driven user outlook forums with clear linkages to RCOFs, to take climate outlooks into account • Guidance for RCOFs to more efficiently communicate climate outlooks to the users, along with uncertainty aspects

7. TT – CRMExpected Deliverables • A concept paper on CRM (WMO and external inputs) • An online compendium of best practices in CRM (examples for various sectors) • A strategy documentoutlining requirements for extending CRM concept to members, proposals for development and implementation of training and outreach initiatives, tools • report to CG-XVI

8. TT – UIExpected Deliverables • A collection of existing case studies relevant to quantifying the social and economic benefits of using climate information, products and services; • A guideline for users and for national climate services providers on integrating climate information including predictions into climate risk management, adaptation strategies and planning, to include a user-friendly terminology (this guidance will help providers take steps towards development of user-tailored products with appropriate language and formats, and will help users understand and interpret the available products and propose how to optimize their use); • Information on the susceptibility of various sectors to climate variations and change; on the use of climate information in climate risk management and adaptation by specific sectors; in the form of an online catalogue including InfoNotes; • Contribution of climate perspectives including, inter alia, on climate support and data requirements, to the CBS-CCl-CHy Expert Team on Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services for Improved Humanitarian Planning and Response, for its implementation plan; • A poster on user interface; • A final summary report to CCl-MG of accomplishments of TT-UI and on recommendations for future efforts.

9. TT – UIPriority Deliverables • A compilation of existing case studies relevant to quantifying the social and economic benefits of using climate information, products and services; • Information on the susceptibility of various sectors to climate variations and change; on the use of climate information in CRM / adaptation by specific sectors; in the form of an online catalogue including InfoNotes. • A guideline for users and for national climate services providers on integrating climate information including predictions into climate risk management, adaptation strategies and planning, to include a user-friendly terminology (this guidance will help providers take steps towards development of user-tailored products with appropriate language and formats, and will help users understand and interpret the available products and propose how to optimize their use);

10. Climate Services embedded within User’s Risk Management Framework The user’s physical environment (rain, heat, storms, location, etc), range of activities and the circumstances in which these are carried out (debt, health, etc), as well as the broader issues of economics, policy, trade, stability, etc) that affect the user’s life and work are all important to managing risk; The users live and work in a complex, integrated, climate-environment-society system – multidisciplinary approaches are needed for risk management – climate is one of many factors the user needs to consider What are the user’s core issues and decision criteria; who makes the decisions, is climate important (short-term, long term), what else is important – what is the timing cycle for decisions? Tailoring and provision of user-focused climate products and services should reflect understanding of the user’s decision process and priorities, help users address problems, optimize opportunities, reduce risks – do we know what capability the user has to change, based on climate information?

11. Climate Services embedded within User’s Risk Management Framework What are the climate characteristics in the user’s environment: historical patterns, short and long-term trends, short to longer term predictions including uncertainty, and possible climate change? What products will interest the user (relevant and useful)? If the user needs something the providers do not presently produce – will the system be able to develop it? To what extent does the user know in what ways, and to what extent, his activities are susceptible to climate variations? To what extent is the user able to react to opportunities and avoid risks – does the user understand potential consequences of actions (or inaction) based on use of climate information? Can WMO and partners in GFCS help build knowledge relevant to the users (e.g. the effects of climate variability and change on the health ..agriculture ..water resources sectors)?

12. Pre-requisites for climate services

13. Successful user interaction:characteristics Satisfied users (through verbal or written feedback, surveys or questionnaires) – increased trust in products and providers Active projects with user involvement (building joint knowledge and capacity) Repeated or renewed projects with users, or ramped-up (more detailed) projects (continuity of relationships and mechanisms for interface) User initiatives to begin a liaison with the climate provider for information and services Direct agreement to contract with users (with reduced bureaucracy) Transformation of a product, development of a new product or service, an increase in climate station density or coverage, increased applied climate research or addition of variables measured, based on dialogue with users (applies to all providers, incl. NMHS, RCC) Recognized local ‘champions’ for the user engagement, and legislated or binding relationships (e.g. within government ministries) Good relations with local media

14. Case Studies: approach • quality is more important than quantity; • it is important to identify what a good/robust case study should include; • the priorities (as identified by the High-Level Task Force) will be on agriculture, water resources, health and DRR, noting that agriculture may include important sub-sectors (e.g. for forestry and fisheries); • Users will also be very interested in the relationships of climate to other sectors including energy, urban and built environment (including construction), tourism (including recreation and sport); transportation and finance/insurance …so if time and opportunity permit….

15. Guideline for users and providers • TT-UI will work closely with TT-CRM, in the development of the CRM concept • This CRM concept will be included in the guideline • reliable sources for input were considered and proposed • The Guideline will cover: • Steps users and providers need to take to establish UI • essential steps for users in acquiring, interpreting and using climate information • A general systems approach to applying climate information

16. Summary: A systematic approach in applying climate forecasts to decision-making to achieve best practice (after Hammer, 2000) • Understand the system and its management: it is essential to understand its dynamics and opportunities for management intervention i.e. identify decisions that could influence desired systems behaviour or performance; • Understand the impact of climate variability/climate change: it is important to understand where in the system climate is an issue; • Determine the opportunities for tactical/strategic management in response to the forecasts. If forecasts are now available, what possible options are there at relevant decision-points? How might decisions be changed in response to forecasts? What nature of forecast would be most useful? and What lead-time is required for management responses? • Evaluate the worth of tactical or strategic decision options: the quantification and clear communication of the likely outcomes e.g. economic or environmental, and associated risks of a changing a management practice are key to achieving adoption of the technology.

17. Summary: A systematic approach in applying climate forecasts to decision-making to achieve best practice (after Hammer, 2000) • (To achieve best practice) Implement participative implementation and evaluation: working with managers/decision makers generates valuable insights and learning throughout the entire process: i.e. identifying relevant questions/problems and devising suitable technologies and tools. • Provide feedback to climate forecasting research in the NMHS or university: rather than just accepting a given climate forecast, consider what specific improvements would be of greatest value in the system. This can provide some direction for the style of delivery of forecasts and for climate research of value for the agricultural sector (Hammer, 2000; Hammer et al., 2001; Stone and Meinke, 2007).

18. Impediments to user uptake of climate information • Lack of skill in the product • content of product is not what the user needs (or scale may be inappropriate) • the user’s circumstances may not allow them to fully apply the information (inability to change, adapt, seize opportunity or avoid impact) • unclear outcome of a forecast – impacts/consequences ambiguous • user confusion because of multiple, possibly conflicting, products • user mistrust in the process, provider, or product • user reliance on traditional practices and knowledge • resistance to probabilistic information • user lacks expert assistance to interpret and advise • user does not know of his susceptability to climate, and does not seek products • user does not understand potential value of the climate information

19. Thank you Merci Спасибо Gracias شكرا 谢 谢