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Tonight’s Agenda

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Tonight’s Agenda

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  1. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.  Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing in any financial instruments does not guarantee that an investor will make money, avoid losing capital, or indicate that the investment is risk-free. There are no absolute guarantees in investing. HAWKTRADE and its members do not bear any responsibility for losses or gains made by members trading on their personal accounts based on analysis from HAWKTRADE meetings.

  2. Tonight’s Agenda • Economic Data • Current Events • BRICs

  3. ISM Manufacturing Index: 50.8 • Any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. • Between 43 and 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the sector is contracting. • Below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.

  4. Jobless Claims: 397K • Jobless claims continue to come down but ever so slowly • Better than Expectations

  5. FOMC Summary • Keeping the fed funds target unchanged, the Fed retained language that rates will remain exceptionally low through mid-2013 • Will continue to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasuries in Operation Twist. • Remains moderately positive about economic growth • Sees a stronger economy in the third quarter and now expects a moderate pace of economic growth in coming quarters. • Leaving the door open for additional ease with the emphasis on significant downside risks remaining

  6. Draghi is the new ECB president - Jon Claude Trichet retired

  7. Samsung Tops Apple as No. 1 Smartphone Maker ‏

  8. Groupon advanced 31 percent in its trading debut

  9. MF Global Falls Victim to Europe ‏

  10. S&P 1257 is the break-even point for year If the market goes above that level, it could trigger BUY orders‏

  11. The High Speed China/Asia/BRICs The Slow Speed Developed Markets (DM)

  12. Brazil Russia India China

  13. Goldman Sachs: “The last decade saw the BRICs make their mark on the global economic landscape. Over the past 10 years they have contributed over a third of world GDP growth and grown from one-sixth of the world economy to almost a quarter. Looking forward to the coming decade, we expect this trend to continue and become even more pronounced” BRICs http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/brics-decade.html

  14. Commodity Producing Country • Gerdau: (GGB) • Vale: (VALE) • Petrobras: (PBR) • BancoSandtander: (BSBR) Brazil

  15. Commodity Producing Country • Gazprom: (OGZPY) • Mechel: (MTL) • Mobile TeleSystems: (MBT) • Vimple Communications: (VIP) Russia

  16. ETFs: • iPath MSCI India: (INP) • WisdomTree India Earnings Fund: (EPI) • PowerShares India: (PIN) India

  17. China Export Led -Export Dependent

  18. Currency Situation • China has their currency pegged to the U.S. dollar in order to keep their currency cheap • Good for them - Bad for us • When China starts to appreciate their currency, it will lower the DM's currency against China's • Would make the DM more competitive • Should boost growth in DM since exports is the #1 way to boost an economy and have high growth/GDP

  19. Bloomberg Video /

  20. Video Summary • If China does appreciate their currency too quickly, many factories could go bankrupt since they have slim profit margins • If that happens unemployment could sky-rocket, and with a 1.3 billion person population, massive social unrest could occur

  21. The Transition • When countries have massive growth and become rich (usually through exports), it's natural for that economy to transition into a service/consumption economy like the U.S. and Europe • The solution to this 2-speed global economy is for countries like China to slowly transition into a higher consumer/service economy • social unrest

  22. Export/ Manufacturing Country • Macau • Las Vegas Sands: (LVS) • Wynn Resorts: (WYNN) PetroChina: (PTR) Aluminum Corp of China: (ACH) China

  23. BRIC ETFs (BRIL): 2X Bull

  24. Thu 20 Oct 11 | 07:03 AM ET Jim O’Neil Start min: 1:00

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