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WEATHER AWARENESS Joe Sienkiewicz Science and Operations Officer NOAA Ocean Prediction Center opc.ncep.noaa

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WEATHER AWARENESS Joe Sienkiewicz Science and Operations Officer NOAA Ocean Prediction Center www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov NOAA Forecast Responsibility High Seas Warning Categories GALE – 34-47 knots Force 8/9 STORM – 48-63 knots Force 10/11

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

WEATHER AWARENESS

Joe Sienkiewicz

Science and Operations Officer

NOAA Ocean Prediction Center

www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov

noaa forecast responsibility
NOAA Forecast Responsibility

High Seas Warning Categories

GALE – 34-47 knots Force 8/9

STORM – 48-63 knots Force 10/11

HURRICANE FORCE - >64 knots Force 12

noaa forecast responsibility9
NOAA Forecast Responsibility

Wind Warning Categories

GALE – 34-47 knots Force 8/9

STORM – 48-63 knots Force 10/11

HURRICANE FORCE - 64 knots and greater Force 12

Tropical Cylone Warning Categories

TROPICAL STORM – 34-63 knots Force 8-11

HURRICANE - >64 knots Force 12

slide10

NWS Ocean Prediction Center

Responsibilities

High Seas Text

North Pacific and North Atlantic

Offshore Waters Forecasts

New England Waters

Mid

-

Atlantic Waters to 250 nm

Washington and Oregon Waters

California and Northern Mexican Waters

Weather Fax Graphic Products

North Pacific and North Atlantic

Surface, 500 mb, Sea State analyses

Surface and 500 mb Forecasts to 5 days

  • WARNINGS

GALE

STORM

HURRICANE FORCE

slide12

NOAA/NWS

Ocean Prediction Center

Offshore Zones

offshore waters forecast
Offshore Waters Forecast

ANZ089-182030- 1030 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2007

.SYNOPSIS FOR MID ATLC WATERS...

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E INTO THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON

INTO TONIGHT...THEN PASS E OF THE AREA LATE MON. THE HIGH WILL

MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE SRN WATERS MON NIGHT AND TUE

MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OVER THE AREA TUE...

WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SRN WATERS LATE

TUE...THEN DISSIPATE WED MORNING. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE INTO

THE WATERS N OF THE FRONT ON WED...THEN SPREAD OVER THE

ENTIRE AREA THU.

offshore waters forecast14
Offshore Waters Forecast

BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON OUT TO 36N 70W TO 34N

71W 1030 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2007 .

.THIS AFTERNOON...W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7

FT...EXCEPT 7 TO 13 FT E OF 1000 FMS...HIGHEST NE.

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING

TO 3 TO 5 FT...EXCEPT TO 5 TO 10 FT E OF 1000 FMS...HIGHEST E.

.MON...WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KT BY AFTERNOON...THEN

INCREASING TO S TO SW 15 TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS BECOMING 4 TO 7 FT

THROUGHOUT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS NW.

.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING

TO 5 TO 10 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS NW.

.TUE...SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT EARLY...THEN BECOMING N TO NE 15 TO

20 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 11 FT...THEN SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 8

FT LATE...HIGHEST NE.

.WED...E TO NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT BECOMING E TO SE 10 TO 15 KT

LATE. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT...BECOMING HIGHEST SE.

.THU...S TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS BECOMING 3 TO 5 FT

. $$

slide15

Communications

How can you receive weather warnings and forecasts?

INMARSAT

NAVTEX

NOAA Weather Radio

E-mail

Single Side

-

Band

Weatherfax

SAT phone

slide16

Surface Charts

Analysis, 24, 48, 96 HR Forecasts

Fronts

Isobars

Pressure Centers

24 hour forecast of motion /

intensity

WARNINGS

slide22

Microwave SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE

Cyclone

Formation

Areas

Tropical Cyclone

Formation Areas

Bermuda

slide24

Surface Analysis

1200 UTC 17 Mar

slide25

NCEP GFS

PMSL

2m Temp

slide28

OPC Gridded

Wave Heights

1200 UTC 17 Mar

slide34

MATURE

GROWING

slide35

MAMMATUS

GREEN TINGE

slide37

SQUALL LINES

MAMMATUS

MAMMATUS

MAMMATUS

slide40

CELL

MOVEMENT

X

LINE

MOVEMENT

slide41

CELL

MOVEMENT

LINE

MOVEMENT

NOAA WEATHER RADIO

IS YOUR CONNECTION TO

THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR NETWORK

slide47

Thunderstorms

Squall drill

Down and stowed

Anchor

Tether in - ahead of time

Assigned tasks

slide48

THUNDERSTORM TIPS

Know the forecast!

NOAA WX Radio

Fronts, troughs, boundaries

Watch the sky!!!

Gulf Stream

Flow parallel to the Stream

Max activity at night

AM Radio

Radar (rain clutter/sea clutter)

Act early!

slide52

Average Atlantic Hurricane Season

9.8 named storms

5.8 Hurricanes

2006 10 “named” storms

5 Hurricanes

slide53

18

17

16

15

14

13

12

11

10

slide63

16 JUN 2006

U.S. COAST GUARD, CANADIANS LOCATE DEBRIS FIELD,

CONTINUE THE SEARCH FOR MISSING SAILING VESSEL

Seas are reported to be 23 to 30 feet,

the winds are reported to be 50 to 90 knots. 

slide64

Roger A. Pielke, Jr. and Christopher W. Landsea

Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 2027-2033

slide65

Dealing with Hurricane Season

We are getting better at forecasting track and formation!

Intensity still a big problem!!!

Have seen more cyclones later in season…well into October

November and December

Know the climatology…formation areas and favored tracks

Hurricanes are just as dangerous in the northern latitudes

They move faster and are more efficient wave producers

La Nina – conditions for formation more favorable

Need to know the latest forecast

slide68

Before departing

The single most important decision for a successful voyage

may well be your departure time.

Know the forecast…ahead of time

Monitor the weather via Internet….same products

You will use at sea

Private weather routing service?

slide69

Underway

Monitor the weather..as part of watch keeping/navigation

Wind speed and/or direction changes

Barometer

Seas

Is the weather evolving as planned?

If not…determine and redefine options

KNOW THE CURRENT FORECAST!!!

Weatherfax

SSB

NOAA WX RADIO

email

slide70

“Shore deadlines too often get in the way

of making good nautical decisions.”

“the only schedule that really counts for

mariners, …is the one of weather systems.

John Rousmaniere

Fastnet, Force 10

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