February 2010
Download
1 / 24

2009 Industry Review - Candy USA - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 113 Views
  • Uploaded on

United States Confectionery Market. February 2010. U.S. Confectionery Market Overview. Recession ending??? GDP grew 6% in 4 th Quarter 2009 Stock market – DJ – 10,500 …and growing Retail sales surprise in 3 rd and 4 th quarter 2009 Interest rates remain low Consumer spending ????.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about '2009 Industry Review - Candy USA' - emily


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
February 2010

United States

Confectionery Market

February 2010



  • Recession ending??? GDP grew 6% in 4th Quarter 2009

  • Stock market – DJ – 10,500 …and growing

  • Retail sales surprise in 3rd and 4th quarter 2009

  • Interest rates remain low

  • Consumer spending ????

2010 USA Economic Trends

  • Issues to watch!

  • Unemployment still at 10%

  • Housing market still down

  • Oil prices rising again

  • Still difficult to borrow

  • Commodity prices head even higher

  • Savings rate up – spending down


  • Uptick in third and fourth quarter sales

  • Shopping trips declined

  • Big spending shift to value channels

  • Increased coupon usage

  • Confectionery seen as a recession resistant category

  • Organic sales decline

  • What’s going to happen with Holiday retail sales?

    • 2009 – 3.6% growth (SpendingPulse projection)

    • 2008 - declined 2.3%

    • 2007 - 2.4% growth

2010 USA Retail Trends


Cocoa Prices at Historic Highs

Cocoa price per ton

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2003


Sugar Prices near Historic Highs

Refined beet sugar f.o.b. Midwest

U.S. Cents per pound

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009


Corn Sweetener Prices near Historic Highs

Corn Sweetener Prices have stabilized but are high by historical standards.

U.S. $ per pound

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2003


Commodities pricing
Commodities Pricing

Milk – significantly lower in 2009

Peanuts – lower than 2008 but increasing

Walnuts – prices jumped at end of 2009

Pistachios – Iranian crop shortages drive prices higher

Almonds


The 2009 u s confectionery market
The 2009 U.S. Confectionery Market

The U.S. Retail Confectionery Category generates

approximately $29 billion in retail sales

%

$ Change

Retail Sales (NCA projection) $29.3 +3.6%

Manufacturers Shipments (NCA projection) $18.7 +3.4%

Domestic Manufacturer Shipments $17.9 +3.4%

Imports $2.0 +0.9%

Exports $1.2 -1.3%

The retail profit margin is approximately 35% for the confectionery category.

Estimated sales in billions

NCA Shipment Data and Global Trade Atlas Import/Export Data


Chocolate Candy represents approximately

58% of total confectionery dollar sales.

2009 Confectionery Categories Analysis

This analysis shows figures for 2009 shipments and retail sales.

NCA estimates based on Source:

2008 US Department of Commerce,

Census Bureau 311D, Confectionery Report and

NCA Manufacturer Shipment Reports, IRI Data


Confectionery sales steady
Confectionery Sales Steady

Due to price increases in the confectionery industry in 2009 the industry saw an increase in dollar sales combined with a decrease in tonnage.

2009- US Dept of Commerce 311 D Report and

NCA Manufacturers Shipments


2008 Per Capita Retail Sales

The average U.S. Consumer spent $93 on confectionery products in 2008

2008 US Department of Commerce 311D Confectionery Report


U.S. Confectionery

The Retail Market


Candy and gum ranked 4th among food categories december 2009
Candy and Gum Ranked 4thAmong Food Categories- December 2009

IRI Food, Drug & Mass

Excluding Wal-Mart 12/27/2009

Candy and Gum Ranked 4th among 2009 Food Categories in Food, Drug and Mass Outlets


Candy and gum is the 2 nd largest snack category
Candy and Gum is the 2nd Largest Snack Category

IRI Food, Drug & Mass

Excluding Wal-Mart 12/27/2009


2009 retail channel performance
2009 Retail Channel Performance

Based on 52 Week Sales – Ending December 27, 2009

Channel 2009 $ Sales 2009 % Growth

Supermarkets $4.9 +5.7%

Wal-Mart $4.0 +3.4%

Mass X Wal-Mart $1.4 +2.2%

Convenience Stores $4.6 +3.0%

Drug Stores $2.8 +3.0%

*Warehouse Clubs $2.5 +4.7%

*Dollar Stores $1.2 +6.1%

Vending $1.1 -1.9%

*Bulk $1.2 +2.1%

The confectionery retail market grew across all trade channels but supermarkets, dollar stores, and warehouse clubs outpaced the overall retail market in 2009.

* Indicates NCA estimate

  • Source: NCA estimates based on input from Information Resources, Inc. NCA/CMA Monthly Shipment Reports and U.S. Department of Commerce.

  • Sales Figures in billions


Confectionery

Seasonal Merchandising


What Affects Seasonal Sales?


Confectionery Seasonal Sales

(** in millions of dollars)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 projections *

Valentine’s Day - $971 $1,036 $1,024 $928 $935*

Easter - $1,884 $1,987 $1,846 $1,990 $1,970*

Halloween - $2,146 $2,202 $2,209 $2,207 $2,225*

Christmas - $1,389 $1,420 $1,376 $1,401 $1,420*

* – projections for 2010

Seasonal confectionery

sales grew

1.2% in 2009

Results and Projection as of February 2010

Source: Sales figures are compiled by National Confectioners Association

based on input from Information Resources, Inc. NCA/CMA Monthly Shipment

Reports and U.S. Department of Commerce


Seasonal confectionery trends
Seasonal Confectionery Trends

201020092008 2007 2006 2005 VALENTINE’S +0.7%* -9.4% -0.2% +6.7% +0.1% -4.0%

EASTER -1.0%* +7.9% -7.1% +5.4% +7.0% -7.6%

HALLOWEEN +0.8%* Even +0.1% +2.6% +2.8% +2.3% CHRISTMAS +1.4%* +1.8% -3.1% +2.2% +1.0% +2.4%

* IRI FD&M

NCA projects a 0.4% increase in 2010 for total seasonal sales.


Holiday dates days
Holiday Dates/Days

Holiday 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Valentine’s Sat. Sunday Monday Tuesday Thursday

Easter4/12 4/4 4/24 4/8 3/31

HalloweenSat. Sunday Monday Wed. Thursday

ChristmasFriday Sat. Sunday Tuesday Wed

Thanksgiving 11/26 11/25 11/24 11/22 11/28

Shopping Days 29 30 31 33 27

Indicates negative date for holiday sales

Indicates positive date for holiday sales

Indicates neutral date for holiday sales



Trends for 2009 2010
Trends - for 2009/2010

  • Core mass brands grew in units and dollars

    • Consumers moved to value channels and value brands

  • Seasonal sales rebound with improving economy

  • Dark chocolate sales continue to grow but at a slower pace

    • Dark chocolate sales increased 9% in 2009

  • Everyday gourmet chocolate flat in 2009

    • Consumers want gourmet product at a value price

  • Emerging trends in 2010

    • More private label chocolates

      • Upscale private label/gourmet packaging

    • Mass brands introducing more dark chocolate items

    • Exotic chocolate flavorings: citrus, spice, salt, fruits

    • High cocoa content chocolates

    • Gourmet packaging for chocolates


Trends for 2009 20101
Trends - for 2009/2010

  • Value products grew significantly

    • Nut/Coconut Candy grew 12.1%

  • Gummies and chewy candy grew 11.6%

  • Licorice grew 4.7%

  • Theater Box candies grew 6%

  • King sized candies up significantly

  • Sugar Free gum - +7.3% sales

  • Exotic fusion flavors

  • Fortified products

  • Seasonal candy increased in in 2009

  • Reflection of difficult economy

  • More favorable dates in 2009

  • Seasonal confectionery will grow 2.0%


  • ad