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Super-Regional Modeling Testbed to Improve Forecasts of Environmental Processes for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Coasts Wright, L.D.; Signell, R.; Friedrichs, C.; Harding, J.; Howlett, E.; Levin, D.; Luettich, R.; and Smith, E. 15 February 2011 ASLO 2011 Aquatic Sciences Meeting

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Super-Regional Modeling Testbed to Improve Forecasts of Environmental Processes

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Super regional modeling testbed to improve forecasts of environmental processes

Super-Regional Modeling Testbed to

Improve Forecasts of Environmental Processes

for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Coasts

Wright, L.D.; Signell, R.; Friedrichs, C.; Harding, J.; Howlett, E.; Levin, D.; Luettich, R.; and Smith, E.

15 February 2011

ASLO 2011 Aquatic Sciences Meeting

S41 Ecological Forecasting: Progress, Challenges and Prospects


Super regional modeling testbed to improve forecasts of environmental processes

Outline

  • Southeastern Universities Research Assn (SURA)

  • Motivation for the Testbed: Improving prediction of environmental processes

  • Design of this Testbed

  • Year 1 Products

  • Future work


Super regional modeling testbed to improve forecasts of environmental processes

SURA’s Mission:To advance nuclear physics, information technology, and facilitate better understanding of coastal and environmental phenomena that impact our lives.


Super regional modeling testbed to improve forecasts of environmental processes

Outline

  • Southeastern Universities Research Assn (SURA)

  • Motivation for the testbed: Improving prediction of environmental processes

  • Design of this testbed

  • Year 1 products

  • Future work


Improving forecasts of coastal environmental processes

Improving Forecasts of Coastal Environmental Processes

  • Factors:

    • open boundary conditions,

    • surface and river forcing conditions,

    • enhanced physics,

    • adjustable parameters,

    • data assimilation, numerics, amount of data assimilated,

    • skill of modelers(!),

    • vertical and horizontal resolution,

    • coupling to wave and met models.

  • “Which model is better?” is not the right question.

    • What factors in the simulation resulted in a better solution?

    • How much better?

    • At what cost?


Defining improvement

Defining Improvement

  • To measure improvement for environmental processes, we need to define skill metrics for specific environmental processes and often for specific region:

  • Inundation ✔

  • Hypoxia ✔

  • Search and rescue

  • Deep oil spills

  • Navigation

  • Harmful algal blooms

  • Diver operations

  • Alternative energy citing

  • Beach erosion

  • Regional impact of climate change

  • -- ALL REQUIRE DIFFERENT SKILL METRICS!

  • Operational centers will directly benefit from the community’s help in this process – too broad for NOAA and NAVY!


  • A common cyberinfrastructure for model data

    A Common Cyberinfrastructure for Model Data

    The ocean community needs a common cyberinfrastructure to access, analyze and display data from the different models: each model community currently has their own standards and toolsets.

    Structured Grids

    Unstructured Grid

    10 nodes

    5x5

    6x3

    Variety of Stretched

    Vertical Coordinates


    Super regional modeling testbed to improve forecasts of environmental processes

    Outline

    • Southeastern Universities Research Assn (SURA)

    • Motivation for the testbed: improving prediction of environmental processes

    • Design of this testbed

    • Year 1 products

    • Future work


    Super regional modeling testbed to improve forecasts of environmental processes

    A Testbed Framework for Coastal Ocean Models

    • Build a common infrastructure to enable access, analysis and visualization of all coastal ocean model data produced by NOAA, NAVY and IOOS

    • Develop skill metrics and assess models in three different regions and dynamical regimes, to ensure a robust and powerful infrastructure

    • Identify factors that could be transitioned to operations

    • Build stronger relationships between academia and operational centers through collaboration


    Super regional modeling testbed to improve forecasts of environmental processes

    Testbed “Management”

    7 members

    TestbedManagement

    Testbed Teams

    TestbedAdvisory/Evaluation Group

    Cyber Infrastructure

    Don Wright, Project PI

    Liz Smith, SURA

    Doug Levin, Program Mgr

    Rich Signell, USGS

    25 members

    Estuarine Hypoxia

    Chesapeake Bay

    Coastal Inundation

    Gulf and East Coast

    Shelf Hypoxia

    Gulf of Mexico

    Eoin Howlett, ASA

    21 members

    20 members

    24 members

    Shelf Hypoxia

    Gulf of Mexico

    Shelf Hypoxia

    Gulf of Mexico

    Carl Friedrichs, VIMS

    John Harding, MSU

    Rick Luettich, UNC-CH


    Super regional modeling testbed to improve forecasts of environmental processes

    Mapping services and browse application

    • CyberinfrastructureAll Regions – All Teams

    • Extending CI from OGC, Unidata and others (NOAA DMIT, USGS CDI) to support unstructured grids, and add functionality

    • Web Access via OpenDAP w/CF

    • Unidata Common Data Model/NetCDF Java Library API

    • Distributed search capability

    • Browser based map viewer (WMS)

    • Toolbox for scientific desktop analysis

    • All components standards-based!

    Search services

    Analyze in scientific desktop application


    Super regional modeling testbed to improve forecasts of environmental processes

    Shelf Hypoxia Gulf of MexicoHydrodynamic & biogeochemical hindcast comparisons of hypoxia models (stand alone) coupled to 3 different Gulf of Mexico hydrodynamics models

    Evaluation of two shelf hypoxia formulations (NOAA & EPA)

    ROMS Surface and bottom water oxygen

    By R. Hetland, K. Fennel and C. Harris

    mmol O2 m-3


    Super regional modeling testbed to improve forecasts of environmental processes

    Estuarine Hypoxia Chesapeake Bay

    1. Estuary:

    – 5 Hydrodynamic models

    – 3 Biological (DO) models

    – 2004 data from 28 CBP stations

    – Comparing T, S, max (dS/dz), DO via target diagrams

    2. Shelf: OBCs 5 hydrodynamic models

    Stratification (dS/Dz)

    Dissolved Oxygen

    Models doing better on oxygen than stratification!

    (by M. Friedrichs)


    Super regional modeling testbed to improve forecasts of environmental processes

    • Inundation Extra-tropical – Gulf of MaineTropical – Gulf of Mexico

    • 4 models: 3 unstructured grid +1 structured grid;

    • Coupledwave-storm surge-inundation (total water level)

    • Consistentforcing, validation and skill assessment using existing IMEDS tool,

    • Extensive observational data sets for historical storms Ike, Rita and Gustav in standard formats,

    • SURA has provided supercomputer resources.

    Extratropical Grid for Scituate, MA

    Tropical Grids for Galveston Bay


    Super regional modeling testbed to improve forecasts of environmental processes

    • Inundation Extra-tropical – Gulf of MaineTropical – Gulf of Mexico- 4 models: 3 unstructured grid +1 structured grid- Coupled wave-storm surge-inundation (TWL)- Consistent forcing, validation and skill assessment using existing IMEDS tool

    • Extensive observational data sets for historical storms Ike, Rita and Gustav in standard formats

    • SURA has provided supercomputer resources

    Interactive Modeling Evaluation and Diagnostic Systems

    Tropical Grids for Galveston Bay


    Super regional modeling testbed to improve forecasts of environmental processes

    http://testbed.sura.org


    Testbed year 1 products

    Testbed Year 1 Products

    • Foundation of a cyberinfrastructure framework for search, access and display of all NOAA, NAVY and IOOS model data, via browser and scientific desktop application

    • Skill metrics and identification of key performance factors and cost for three important dynamical regimes and environmental issues

    • Concept of Operations for transition from research to operations

    • Improved communication between research and operations


    Future work for the testbed

    Future Work for the Testbed

    • Expand to more regions and problems

    • Examine more factors (e.g. data assimilation)

    • Build out the cyberinfrastructure

    • Conduct training in the community

    • Sustaining future development


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