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Surviving Globalization in the Wood Products Industry

Forestry Global Overview. Historical BackdropChanging sources of industrial woodStagnating wood marketIncreasing foreign competitionSome new opportunities. Bad News/Good News for the US forest sector. Dynamic changes are occurring that may not be favorable to forestry in the long-term in much of US (or Lake States).Future in Forestry Moving to subtropical regions with their rapid biological growth.But, likely to be some broad economic and environmental benefits, and some local opportunities and niche" market possibilities..

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Surviving Globalization in the Wood Products Industry

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    2. Forestry Global Overview Historical Backdrop Changing sources of industrial wood Stagnating wood market Increasing foreign competition Some new opportunities

    7. Table 3: Worldwide Timber Yields

    8. Regions with Growing Production Plantation Countries: New Zealand, Brazil, South Africa, Chile Russia Recovering: to China market Eastern Europe, Europe: Japan, U.S. But Decreassed production in Malaysia, Indonesia

    10. Drivers of Recent Changes Reduced availability of natural and old growth forests Previous harvests, development Environmental constraints Coming on-line of plantations established in 1980-90s (long-term) Decline and Recovery of Russia But, also very recent short-term factors 1) Strong US $ makes US goods expensive and foreign goods, wood products cheap. 2) But recent decline of the US dollar has reversed that cost disadvantage. US wood exports could become increasingly competitive in foreign markets.

    13. Potential Future Productivity Increases Plantation Expansion Tree Improvement - traditional - genetic modification

    17. Demand Considerations

    21. Pressures Reducing the Growth in Wood Demand Stabilizing and aging populations Wood Substitutes Nonpaper packaging Nonwood Construction Newspaper substitutes, electronic Not quite the �paperless� office, but �

    24. Environmental Implications More wood from less land, means Less harvests from old growth and natural forests More forest land available for nontimber uses, e.g., forest reserves, wildlife, biodiversity reserves. Recreation But, intensive management on appropriate sites

    25. Table 8: Forests Today and Tomorrow: One View Circa 2000 Forest area 3.2 billion ha Industrial forests 0.9 Croplands 1.5 Potential for 2050 Forest area 3.4 Industrial Plantations 0.4 Croplands 1.1 � Source: Victor and Ausubel, Foreign Affairs, 2000 � �

    27. Environmental Implications Good news is that we are producing more agricultural and forestry produces from less and less land Overall eases pressures on the environment Opens options for other types of land uses including those devoted to the environmental

    29. Is There A Role for Improved Poplar in Minnesota? Hybrid Poplar Can Exhibit Rapid Growth in temperate climates Poplar hybrids are being developed for ALPAC mill in Northern Alberta Are there opportunities in Minn.? Wood Production vs. Expanded Ranchettes??

    30. Questions that Need to be Addressed Forestry will be competing with other wood producers, domestic and foreign and other land uses. Face continued opposition to tree cutting by some �greens� Will there be enough land provided for recreation, development and forestry? And, can producers make a sufficient profit? Will productivity be sufficiently high and inexpensive? What role might biotechnology play?

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