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Peter G. Black (1), Jonathan Talbot (2), Ivan Popstefanija (3),

The First Year SFMR Surface Wind Observations from AFRC WC-130J Aircraft: Impact on Operational Hurricane Forecasts and Warnings. Peter G. Black (1), Jonathan Talbot (2), Ivan Popstefanija (3), Eric Uhlhorn (4), James Franklin (5) (1) Naval Research Laboratory and SAIC, Inc., Monterey, CA

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Peter G. Black (1), Jonathan Talbot (2), Ivan Popstefanija (3),

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  1. The First Year SFMR Surface Wind Observations from AFRC WC-130J Aircraft: Impact on Operational Hurricane Forecasts and Warnings Peter G. Black (1), Jonathan Talbot (2), Ivan Popstefanija (3), Eric Uhlhorn (4), James Franklin (5) (1) Naval Research Laboratory and SAIC, Inc., Monterey, CA (2) AFRC, 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, Keesler AFB, MS (3) ProSensing, Inc., Amherst, MA (4) NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL (5) NOAA/NWS/NCEP National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Charleston, South Carolina 3-7 March, 2008

  2. 2007 SFMR Advisory Statistics • Atlantic TC’s • Number: 16 • Depressions Only: 2 • Sub-Tropical Cyclones: 1 • Tropical Storms: 8 • Hurricanes: 6 • Major Hurricanes: 2 (both CAT5) • Satellite-based Advisories: 214 • Aircraft-based Advisors: 56 • SFMR-based advisories: 25 • NOAA: 3 • AFRC: 22

  3. 2007

  4. UNDER SAMPLING ISSUE TA Doppler True Vmax vs. along-track Vmax

  5. CONCLUSIONS • A 9-year SFMR data set from 1998-2006, where SFMR mainly not assimilated in real time, shows that Best Track estimates of maximum wind over-estimated SFMR maximum wind estimates by 10-17%. • However, in 2007 when SFMR assimilated in real time, half the points are overestimates and half are underestimates, suggesting on average that Best Track and SFMR estimates are now aligned with each other. • With 3-5 AFRC aircraft flying in 2007, 31 inter-comparison cases were amassed, plus 3 from NOAA aircraft, whereas 9 years were required for 54 comparison cases in developmental data set. In 2008, all 10 AFRC WC-130J aircraft will be flying SFMRs in addition to the two NOAA P3s as well as the NOAA G-IV. • We are at a historic turning point in history for improving hurricane intensity observation and forecasting where the capability to observe the TC surface wind domain matches the improved coupled model capabilities to assimilate and model it. This alignment should provide the next best opportunity for improving hurricane intensity and structure forecasting.

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