2010 NWS Newport/Morehead City Annual Partners Meeting

1. 2010 NWS Newport/Morehead City Annual Partners Meeting May 17, 2010 Greenville, NC

2. Overview • What is NextGen? • NWS Strategic Plan 2011-2020 • Newport/Morehead City Programs & Initiatives

3. NextGen

4. NextGen • Next-Generation Air Traffic Control System (NextGen) is a Congressionally mandated initiative to modernize the U.S. Air Transportation System in order to: • Increase capacity and reliability • Improve safety and security • Minimize the environmental impact of aviation

5. NextGen • Improvements to the air transportation system will be achieved by applying: • Space-based navigation and integrated surveillance • Digital communications • Layered adaptive security • Weather integrated into decision-making • Advanced automation of Air Traffic Management • Net-centric information access for operations

6. NextGen • Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) • The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)has determined two thirds of this ispreventable with better access toimproved weather information • "A key finding, based on an analysis of several 2005-2006 convective events, is that as much as two-thirds of the weather related delay is potentially avoidable." Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee; Report of the Weather-ATM Integration Working Group; Oct 3, 2007

7. NextGen • “The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. economy was as much as $41 billion for 2007.” • Air-traffic delays raised airlines' operating costs by $19 billion. • Delays cost passengers time worth up to $12 billion. • Indirect costs of delay to other industries added roughly $10 billion to the total burden. “Your Flight Has Been Delayed Again;” Congressional Joint Economic Committee; May 2008

8. NextGen • NextGen goals are not achievable without improving integration of weather information intodecision support systems • NextGen weather vision (a major paradigm shift) is focused on: • Providing a multiple user common weather picture • Consistent and reliable weather information • An improved weather information datastorage approach containing observation and forecast data (i.e., 4-Dimensional Weather Data Cube) enabling NextGen dissemination capabilities

9. NextGen Weather Basics

10. Private Sector Observations Forecasting Numerical Modeling Systems Satellites Statistical Forecasting Systems Network Enabled Operations Data Integration NWS Forecaster Radars WIDB Aircraft 4D Wx SAS Forecast Systems Surface Forecast Integration Soundings Grids Decision Support Systems Custom Graphic Generators Custom Alphanumeric Generators Integration into User Decisions The 4-D Weather Data CubeA Conceptual Model

11. What is the 4-D WeatherSingle Authoritative Source? • The 4-D Wx Single Authoritative Source (SAS): • Is only a portion of the WIDB • Provides a common weather picture for National Air Space (NAS) participants (Airlines, DoD, FAA, etc.) • Is the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA • Is formed by merger of model data, automated gridded algorithms, climatology and observational data, and meteorologist input/data manipulation to ensure consistency and accuracy • NWS is the arbiter for the science and contents of the SAS

12. The Roadmap Ahead • Initial Operational Capability (2013) • Integrated environmental information sources • Common data standards and protocols • Initial integration of diverse weather elements into decision support tools • Intermediate Capability (2016) • Improved modeling and science enables higher resolution more accurate information • Full Network compatibility of environmental information • Direct integration of weather into Air Traffic Management Systems • Full Operational Capability (2022) • All NextGen requirements met and benefits achieved • High resolution, nested scale forecasts available for all elements • Full network connectivity ensures consistent information use across service areas and user groups

13. 4-D Weather CubeBroader Benefits • Aviation driven consistency and accuracy requirements will improve all NWS services • Consistency challenges not unique to aviation • More accurate public forecasts because of aviation driven high resolution modeling requirements • Improved severe weather lead times because of aviation driven convective forecasts • Implements “Warn on Forecast” technologies

14. 4-D Weather CubeBroader Benefits • Improved access to all NWS products and services via the cube • Supports automated decision assistance tools for other agencies and entities beyond FAA • IT and Data Management enhancements • Establish a central repository and access for critical NWS products and services beyond aviation • Support GEOSS requirements • Enhances continuity of operations • Extends the AWIPS enterprise services into a ‘system of systems’ linking AWIPS, MADIS, NDFD, CCS and NEXRAD

15. Summary • NextGen is more than aviation--- and will require significant changes in the way weather information is produced • The NextGen paradigm suggests that most weather information will be assimilated into decision support tools and the decision making process • NOAA has been designated as the Office of Primary Responsibility (OPR) to build and deploy a 4-D Weather Data Cube by IOC (2013) and beyond • Even though NOAA is the OPR, multi-agency teams are working all the issues involved with the cube

16. NWS Strategic Plan 2011 - 2020

17. NWS Mission • Provide weather, water and climate data, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy

18. NWS Vision • Keep Americans safe, healthy, and productive by delivering weather, water, and climate information Our vision calls for a new way of observing, forecasting and warning. We must move beyond just the forecast to providing information that eliminates or reduces the likely human and economic impacts of weather‐related events on the public, sectors, and ecosystems. Our goal is to provide information that allows decision makers to take preventative actions so fewer lives are lost or displaced and less damage is done to communities, businesses, and the environment.

19. Impact‐Based Decision Support - What Is It? Weather Forecast + Social and Economic Impacts & Risks = Impact‐Based Forecast Targets the individuals and economic sectors at‐risk Requires knowledge of user needs Why? Minimize the Human and Economic Impacts

20. What is a High Impact Event No standard, nationwide criteria define a high impact event. It could last minutes or months. It may impact millions of people or one sector, and it may vary in timing or location. It is any weather, water, or climate event that significantly impacts safety, health, the environment, economic productivity, or homeland security, such as: Persistent drought Convection over a congested air space Heavy rains that trigger flooding and harmful algal blooms Geomagnetic storms that threaten energy grids and communication systems Snow squall at rush hour An above average hot day

21. Impact Based DSS Means: • Producing highly accurate and specific forecasts on multiple time scales that integrate human, economic, cultural, risk and uncertainty criteria; • Communicating information in ways people can assess direct and indirect impacts in useful and relevant ways so benefits are realized; • Rethinking how and what we warn to target those at risk; • Integrating immediate feedback on the impacts of our forecasts and services; • Reaching out to sectors whose safety, health, productivity, or security is at‐risk: transportation and public health officials; water resource and environmental managers; • Empowering America’s entrepreneurs and businesses to gain full value from our information • Applying prediction capabilities to alert for broader ecological and health impacts; • Integrating user thresholds and impacts into the forecast process to communicate risks and uncertainty; enhancing visualization and collaboration to facilitate communication.

22. NWS Strategies It is no longer sufficient to produce an accurate forecast of severe weather and issue a timely warning. Our users must be able to properly use NWS information to realize safety, health, and productivity benefits. We envision forecasters focusing less on improving increasingly accurate model output and more on maintaining continuous situational awareness, interpreting information and providing decision support for high impact events with an understanding of user decision thresholds. We envision local and regional offices as decision support hubs delivering integrated environmental information for NOAA and other agencies, in partnership with the private sector. Delivery of decision support will be based on user needs: pushed by the forecaster or pulled by the user. It will be for the general public, sectors, organizations, or public officials.

23. NWS Strategies Scientific and technical advancements are essential enablers for providing impact‐based decision support. Most notably, the planned four‐dimensional environmental database, or 4D Cube, and associated forecaster tools will transform operations by integrating weather, water, climate, and environmental observations, forecasts, and decision‐making into a network‐enabled, continuously updated “virtual” repository. Next generation observations, Earth system models at all possible spatial and temporal scales, and advanced technologies will be enablers, extending capabilities to warn‐on forecast and to quantify forecast uncertainty. A critical component will be the linking of social and physical science to produce information and deliver services.

24. NWS Strategies Training, recruiting, and partnering are critical to the success of impact‐based decision support. NWS will develop strategies and commit resources to train our workforce beyond weather, water, and climate sciences to be better communicators and interpreters of NWS information, and to understand the risks and impacts of our forecasts. We want to recruit worldclass scientists, meteorologists and hydrologists who have communication, social science, and information technology skills. We want to recruit and partner with people from other disciplines: economists, behavioral scientists, ecologists, engineers, health experts, and the like.

25. Societal Outcomes of Our Vision • Society is better prepared for environmental events to prevent adverse impacts and maximize social and economic benefits from environmental information • Necessary actions to manage and respond to a changing climate are proactively taken • Clean usable water is available for homes, industry, agriculture, ecosystems, and recreation • Smart growth and economic productivity is fueled by trusted and available environmental information • Natural habitats, biodiversity, and human well‐being are restored and preserved in healthy ecosystems and communities

26. NWS Goals to Meet its Vision • GOAL 1: IMPROVE WEATHER DECISION SERVICES FOR EVENTS THAT THREATEN SAFETY,HEALTH, THE ENVIRONMENT, ECONOMIC PRODUCTIVITY, OR HOMELAND SECURITY • GOAL 2: DELIVER A BROADER SUITE OF IMPROVED WATER SERVICES TO SUPPORT MANAGEMENT OF NATION’S WATER SUPPLY • GOAL 3: ENHANCE CLIMATE SERVICES TO HELP COMMUNITIES, BUSINESSES, AND GOVERNMENTS UNDERSTAND AND ADAPT TO CLIMATE‐RELATED RISKS • GOAL 4: IMPROVE SECTOR‐RELEVANT INFORMATION IN SUPPORT OF ECONOMIC PRODUCTIVITY • GOAL 5: ENABLE INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES SUPPORTING HEALTHY COMMUNITIES AND ECOSYSTEMS

27. NWS Newport/Morehead CityProjects & Initiatives

28. Newport/Morehead City Projects & Initiatives • Raised Flood Stage at Williamston • Coordinated with Partners to Raise Flood Stage and Eliminate Unneccesary Warnings to the Public • Re-evaluating Other Locations As Well • Air Quality Alert Products • Worked with State to Coordinate on Adding the Capability for the Office to Issue the Air Quality Alert Product based on State Input • Will Allow us to Better Respond to Events Such as the Evans Road Fire in 2008 • Continue to Work on CI-FLOW Project • Project Creating the Capability to Forecast the Coupled Effects of Storm Surge and Freshwater Runoff • Project Set to Provide Output to the Office in an Operational Setting this Hurricane Season

29. Newport/Morehead City Projects & Initiatives • SWAN Wave Model Implementation • Utilizing SWAN Data to Develop an Experimental Issuance of a Marine Area Forecast Matrix with Detailed Wave Data • Explore other avenues to present the data in a customer usable format. • Local WRF Modeling • Configured a new cluster of Linux Machines to run a faster higher resolution local WRF model in real time for operations • Contributing Output to RENCI for Inclusion in a WRF Ensemble for the State of NC • Local Goal Develop a Methodology Utilizing High Resolution Local WRF Model to Show Hourly Sea Breeze Movement in Grids (2.5 km grid resolution coming within a year)

30. Newport/Morehead City Projects & Initiatives • Dual Polarization Radar • Scheduled to be a Beta Test Site with Installation in January 2011 • Many benefits to Precipitation Estimation and Storm Interrogation • Storm Surge Projects • Participating on NOAA-Wide Effort to Improve Storm Surge Forecasts by providing Forecasts of Total Water Level down to Street Level Accuracy • Participating on NWS Team to Experiment with New Storm Surge Warning and Explore Other Means of Conveying Surge Information • Inlet Observations and Forecasting Project • Working with Coast Guard to Obtain and Relay Inlet Conditions • Working with ECU, USACOE, UNC, and RENCI to Explore Potential for Creating High Resolution Forecasts of Inlet Conditions

31. Newport/Morehead City Projects & Initiatives • One Inch Hail Research • Local Research and Training to Support NWS Hail Size Warning Criteria Change • Hurricane Floyd 10 Year Anniversary Outreach • Completed Year Long Coordinated Effort to Promote Hurricane and Flooding Awareness • Implemented LSR Reporting for Snowfall Amounts • Responded to User Feedback to begin Providing Reports in a Format to Better Meet Their Needs • PowerPoint Significant Weather Event Briefings • Continue to Refine Briefing Content and Dissemination Lists • Water Level Observation Network • Obtaining Reports from NC Ferry Locations and Several Private Volunteer Observers