Estimates of Immigrant Civic Potential Prepared for Carnegie Corporation of New York

1. Estimates of Immigrant Civic PotentialPrepared for Carnegie Corporation of New York June 2008

2. Executive Summary • This report estimates the size and scope of three key groups of immigrants and their children: • Adult legal immigrants eligible to naturalize, • Adult naturalized immigrants, including those who are not registered to vote, and • U.S. citizen children of immigrants who will be of voting age by 2012. • At the end of this report we sum these three populations to an “immigrant inclusive” number that illustrates the magnitude of these communities. • Some of the key findings include: Adult Legal Immigrants Eligible to Naturalize There are 8.3 million legal immigrants eligible to naturalize. These immigrants represent a wide variety of countries of origin. More than 80 percent are located in ten states. Adult Naturalized Immigrants in Need of Voter Registration There are 14.9 million naturalized adults in the U.S. Many of these persons – 5.8 million or 39 percent – are not registered to vote. U.S. Citizen Children of Immigrants Who Will Be of Voting Age by 2012 Almost one in six or 16 percent of children aged 12-17 years are U.S. citizens who have an immigrant parent. In California the corresponding number is 41 percent. 71 percent of Asian and 48 percent of Latino children nationally are U.S. citizens who have an immigrant parent. Sum Total of These Populations The sum of these populations could represent one of ten adult citizens in the year 2012. These groups could represent 30 percent of adult citizens in California, 23 percent in New York, and 20 percent in New Jersey.

3. Legal Immigrants Eligible to Naturalize

4. There are 8.3 Million Legal Immigrants Eligible to Naturalize in the United States • The largest single group of immigrants eligible to naturalize is from Mexico. However, nine other countries of origin have at least 180,000 persons who could naturalize. • More than 80 percent of immigrants eligible to naturalize are found in ten states • California is home to 30 percent of immigrants eligible to naturalize, followed by New York (13 percent) and Texas (10 percent)

5. The Leading Groups Eligible to Naturalize Vary by State • Mexico is the leading country of origin of immigrants eligible to naturalize in many but not all states. • Cuba is the leading country of origin in Florida, while the Dominican Republic is the leading country in Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York. Red ink highlights groups that are at least 10% of a state’s legal immigrant population

6. Adult Naturalized Immigrants, Including Those Not Registered to Vote

7. Large Numbers of Naturalized Adults Are Not Registered to Vote • Almost 40 percent of adult naturalized immigrants were not registered in 2004. • By contrast only 28 percent of the overall U.S. population was not registered. • Naturalized immigrants in need of voter registration ranges from 30 percent in Arizona to 56 percent in Georgia.

8. Asian Immigrants Are Least Likely to Be Registered Voters • Among naturalized immigrants, rates of voter registration vary considerably among the major racial/ethnic groups. • 46 percent of naturalized Asian are not registered to vote. • 41 percent of naturalized Latinos are not registered.

9. U.S. Citizen Children of Immigrants

10. In Many States, Large Percentages of Young Persons Have an Immigrant Parent Percent of U.S. Citizen Children Who Have an Immigrant Parent • Nationally, 3.7 million or 16 percent of young persons aged 12-17 years are U.S. citizens who have an immigrant parent. • U.S. citizen children of immigrants are 41 percent of all young persons in California and 26 percent of young persons in New York. Source: 2005/2006 American Community Survey

11. Number of U.S. Citizen Children with an Percent of Children Who Total Number of Are Citizens with an Immigrant Parent Children Immigrant Parent All Children 23,304,530 3,734,180 16.0% Asian non-Latino 875,351 624,508 71.3% Latino 4,018,424 1,911,056 47.6% White non-Latino 14,317,565 759,253 5.3% Other non-Latino 4,093,190 439,364 10.7% Percent of Citizen Children 12-17 Years of Age with an Immigrant Parent by Race/Ethnicity Large Numbers of Asian and Latino Children Are U.S. Citizens Who Have an Immigrant Parent 71% of Asian children are U.S. citizens with a foreign-born parent 48% of Latino children are U.S. citizens with a foreign-born parent Source: 2005/2006 American Community Survey

12. Numbers of Asian/Latino Children with Immigrant Parents Are Particularly High in Some States More than three quarters of California and New Jersey Asian children are citizens who have an immigrant parent. More than 61 percent of California Latino children are citizens who have an immigrant parent.

13. The Potential “Immigrant Inclusive” Adult Population 13

14. An “Immigrant Inclusive” Adult Citizenry in 2012 Could Include Large Numbers of Persons Who Have a Close Connection to the Immigrant Experience • The “Immigrant Inclusive” population -- immigrants eligible to naturalize, naturalized adults and citizen children of immigrants turning 18 by 2012– potentially represents 12 percent of adults in that year. • This “immigrant inclusive” population potentially represents 29 percentof California adults and 23 percentof New York adults.

15. Methodology

16. About Rob Paral and Associates Rob Paral and Associates is a consulting firm that helps institutions understand the populations they serve and the impact of their programs. We collect and analyze information and present our findings in an accessible format. Our recent projects have included: • Helping a health policy organization determine the need for health insurance in legislative districts in Illinois. • Estimating the numbers of legal immigrants in U.S. metro areas for a national philanthropic organization. • Providing a legal aid corporation with information to understand the shifting needs of its clients. • Evaluating the impact of charitable giving and support for community foundations in the Midwest. • Developing policies and procedures needed by a state agency to communicate with limited-English clients. Direct outcomes of our work have recently been cited in The New York Times, the Washington Post, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, and a large number of other major news media outlets. Please contact Rob Paral and Associates at info@robparal.com, www.robparal.com, and 773-506-7308.