1 / 26

Census Bureau’s Interim and Final State Projections

Census Bureau’s Interim and Final State Projections. Population Projections Branch Population Division U.S. Census Bureau. Interim State Population Projections 2004 - 2030. Introduction. Rationale for interim population projections Section outline Methodology Assumptions

ellema
Download Presentation

Census Bureau’s Interim and Final State Projections

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Census Bureau’s Interim and Final State Projections Population Projections Branch Population Division U.S. Census Bureau

  2. Interim State Population Projections 2004 - 2030

  3. Introduction • Rationale for interim population projections • Section outline • Methodology • Assumptions • Proposed products

  4. Methodology • Cohort Component Method • Project Births, Deaths, Internal Migration, and International Migration separately • Basic Formula: • P1 = P0 + B - D + IIM - IOM + NIM • Where, • P0 = Base year population • B = Projected births • D = Projected deaths • IIM = Projected internal in-migration • IOM = Projected internal out-migration • NIM = Projected net international migration

  5. Assumptions • Fertility: • Fertility rates held constant, with adjustment to fit estimated births from 2001 to 2003 • Mortality: • Mortality rates held constant, with adjustment to fit estimated deaths from 2001 to 2003 • Internal migration: • Follow the IRS migration trends in region-to-state and state-to-region migration flows. • Hold the composition of 1995-2000 census migration flows constant. • International migration: • Follow the current international trends in states • Hold constant the composition of 1995-2000 immigrant population in the state

  6. Proposed Products • Highlights (Press release) • Summary tables with statistics such as median age, sex ratio, dependency ratio and graphs such as pyramids • Detailed age, and sex for all states, year by year (2004-2030)

  7. Final State Population Projections 2005 - 2030

  8. Introduction • Challenges to new projections • Data consistency issues between Census 2000 and previous censuses • Data consistency issues between census data and other data sources such as NCHS • Section outline • Methodology • Input data • Assumptions • Proposed products

  9. Methodology • Cohort Component Method • Project Births, Deaths, Internal Migration, and International Migration separately • Basic Formula: • P1 = P0 + B - D + IIM - IOM + NIM • Where, • P0 = Base year population • B = Projected births • D = Projected deaths • IIM = Projected internal in-migration • IOM = Projected internal out-migration • NIM = Projected net international migration

  10. Methodology • To project the demographic details, the formula should be expanded as follows: • 1 Pi,j,k = 0 P(i-1),j,k + Bj,k - Di,j,k + IIMi,j,k - IOMi,j,k + NIMi,j,k • Where, • i = age ( 0 - 85 and over) • j = sex (male, female) • k = race/Hispanic origin (White, Black, American Indian, Asian, Hawaiian, and multi-race by Hispanic origin, a total of 12 groups)

  11. Input Data • Starting point: • Census 2000 for base year and denominator of rates • Births 1999, 2000, 2001 for fertility rates • Deaths 1999, 2000, 2001 for mortality rates • Internal migration: • IRS annual migration flows data: 1975 -2003 • Census migration flows data: 1995-2000 • Foreign born population entering U.S. : 1995 - 2000 • Population estimates and component of change: 2001 to 2004 Age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for all data items except IRS

  12. Input Data • Projection years: • Projected national fertility rates • Projected national survival rates • Projected IRS region-to-state and state-to-region migration rates • Projected national population • Projected national births • Projected national deaths • Projected national international migration • Change in state fertility rates: 1990-2000 • Change in state survival rates: 1990-2000

  13. Base Population • Use modified Census 2000 race data (31 race combinations) • The “some other race group” was eliminated • http://eire.census.gov/popest/data/national/tables/files/MR(31)-CO.txt • Tabulate “Minimum and Maximum” race groups • Convert Census 2000 race groups to 1990 race groups, using equal fraction assignment procedure • State population estimates 2004

  14. Fertility Input Data • Births by age and race of mother from NCHS: • 1989, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2000, and 2001 • Bridged census 2000 female 15-49 by race • Age-specific fertility rates based on 1990 race only for 6 race groups • (1) Non-Hispanic total • (2) Non-Hispanic white • (3) Non-Hispanic black • (4) Non-Hispanic American Indian • (5) Non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander • (6) Hispanic origin total

  15. Mortality Input Data • Deaths by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin • 1989, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2000, and 2001 • Census 2000 by single years of age (0 ~ 100+), sex, race, and Hispanic origin (Bridged race groups) • Mortality rates by race and Hispanic origin • Same as fertility rates by race, only prepare 6 race / Hispanic groups and apply the mortality rates to appropriate race groups • Prepare complete life tables and survival rates • Development of mortality changes by state (1990-2000)

  16. Internal Migration Input Data • IRS region-to-state and state-to-region annual migration flows (1975 – 2003 time series): • For projecting total internal migration into the future • Census 2000 region-to-state and state-to-region migration flows between 1995 and 2000 by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin • For projecting the composition of internal migration by age, sex, race, and Hispanic demographic detail, controlled to projected IRS migration flows • Data issues about 2,550 state-to-state migration flows • Many small flows • Empty data cells by demographic detail

  17. International Migration Input Data • Estimates of net international migration rates by state 2001-2004 • Foreign-born population entering the U.S. by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, 1995-2000 • Projected national net international migration by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin

  18. Assumptions • Fertility: • Follow national trends, adjusted by state-specific change in fertility rates (1990-2000) • Mortality: • Follow national trends, adjusted by state-specific change in mortality rates (1990-2000) • Internal migration: • Follow the IRS migration trends in region-to-state and state-to-region migration flows. • Hold the composition of 1995-2000 census migration flows constant. • International migration: • Follow current international migration trends in the states and determined by projected net international migration for the U.S. • Hold constant the composition of 1995-2000 immigrant population in the state

  19. Fertility Rate Projection • Population base • Female 14-48+ base year population • Female 15-49+ expected survived population • Project fertility rates • Starting age-specific fertility rates… (f(t-1)) • Projected national total fertility rates…(F(t)) • Ratio of state total fertility rate change to national total fertility change… [f(2000)/f(1990)]/[F(2000 /F(1990)] • Projection formula: • f(t) = f(t-1) + (F(t) - F(t-1)) * [(f(2000)/f(1990)) / (F(2000)/F(1990))]

  20. Survival Rate Projection • Project survival rates • Starting age-specific survival rates… (s(t-1)) • Projected national survival rates…(Sn(t)) • Adjustment factor – Ratio of state-specific survival rate change to national survival rate change, using one minus probability of dying (1-Qx) by 5-year age… [s(2000)/s(1990)] / [Sn(2000)/Sn(1990)] • Projection formula: • s(t) = s(t-1) + (Sn(t) – Sn(t-1)) * [(s(2000)/s(1990)) / (Sn(2000)/Sn(1990))]

  21. Projection of IRS Migration Flows • Input time series (28 data points): • 204 region-to-state migration rates (1975-1976 to 2002-2003) • 204 state-to-region migration rates (1975-1976 to 2001-2003) • ARIMA time series projections of first difference in natural log of migration rates for the first 5 years (Using SAS program) • Interpolation from 5th year projected migration rates toward mean in the next 20 years • Hold the mean constant for remaining projection years

  22. International Migration Projection • Project total net international migration by state based on the estimates of net international migration, 2000-2004 • Project composition of net international migration • Population base • Proportion of foreign-born population • Control to projected total net international migration • Control to projected national international migration for the U.S.

  23. Proposed Products • Detailed age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for all states, year by year (2005-2030) • Detailed age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin with components annually for individual states • Summary tables with statistics such as median age, dependency ratio, sex ratio, etc. and graphs such as population pyramids.

More Related