Atmospheric Mercury Modeling Dr. Mark Cohen NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL)

1. Atmospheric Mercury Modeling Dr. Mark Cohen NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) College Park, MD, USA Meeting with John Sherwell, Power Plant Research ProgramMaryland Department of Natural Resources April 2, 2013, NCWCP, College Park MD

2. MODELING PRESENTATION OUTLINE • Trajectory-based Analysis • Meteorological Analysis • HYSPLIT-Hg – Great Lakes • HYSPLIT-Hg – Maryland • CMAQ-Hg – Li Pan • CAM-Chem-Hg -- Hang Lei this talk NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

3. MODELING PRESENTATION OUTLINE • Trajectory-based Analysis • Meteorological Analysis • HYSPLIT-Hg – Great Lakes • HYSPLIT-Hg – Maryland • CMAQ-Hg – Li Pan • CAM-Chem-Hg -- Hang Lei this talk NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

4. When we see high concentrations of mercury, where did the air come from? Beltsville, Maryland mercury site Reactive Gaseous Mercury episode NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

5. When we see high concentrations of mercury, where did the air come from? Baltimore Chesapeake Bay Washington D.C. NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

6. Gridded Trajectory Frequency and Residence Time Analysis NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

7. Rolison, J.M., W.M. Landing, W. Luke, M. Cohen, V.J.M. Salters. Isotopic Composition of Species-Specific Atmospheric Hg in a Coastal Environment. Chemical Geology 336, 37-49, 2013. • Distinctly different air mass patterns with different isotopic GEM signatures • Low d202Hg GEM samples appear associated with uniformly marine air masses • Hg(II)(aq) photoreduction to Hg(0)(aq) and subsequent volatilization has been shown to exhibit mass dependent fractionation --> enrichment in light isotopes in product Hg(0) • Thus, less Hg202, a heavier isotope, associated with the marine air masses NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

8. MODELING PRESENTATION OUTLINE • Trajectory-based Analysis • Meteorological Analysis • HYSPLIT-Hg – Great Lakes • HYSPLIT-Hg – Maryland • CMAQ-Hg – Li Pan • CAM-Chem-Hg -- Hang Lei this talk NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

9. Episode BV-20 episode analysis --> can we understand peaks?

10. Domain configuration from FantineNgan, Air Resources Laboratory Projection center: 40N, 100W Standard latitude: 30N, 60N Layers: 43, with model top at 50 mb (1st layer thickness is 33 m and 15 layers are below 850 mb) D01 D02 D03

11. Time series at Beltsville site ANE1: base case (EDAS IC/BC, 3D FDDA) ANE13: ANE1 + OBJ IC/BC + SFC FDDA + obs nudging ANE23: ANE13 but PX LSM, AMC2

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13. MODELING PRESENTATION OUTLINE • Trajectory-based Analysis • Meteorological Analysis • HYSPLIT-Hg – Great Lakes • HYSPLIT-Hg – Maryland • CMAQ-Hg – Li Pan • CAM-Chem-Hg -- Hang Lei this talk NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

14. Modeling Atmospheric Mercury Deposition to the Great Lakes.Final Reportfor work conducted with FY2010 funding from the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative.December 16, 2011. Mark Cohen, Roland Draxler, Richard Artz. NOAA Air Resources Laboratory,Silver Spring, MD, USA. 160 pages. http://www.arl.noaa.gov/documents/reports/GLRI_FY2010_Atmospheric_Mercury_Final_Report_2011_Dec_16.pdf http://www.arl.noaa.gov/documents/reports/Figures_Tables_GLRI_NOAA_Atmos_Mercury_Report_Dec_16_2011.pptx One-page summary: http://www.arl.noaa.gov/documents/reports/GLRI_Atmos_Mercury_Summary.pdf NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

15. 2005 Atmospheric Mercury Emissions (Direct Anthropogenic + Re-emit + Natural) Policy-Relevant Scenario Analysis NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

16. When puffs grow to sizes large relative to the meteorological data grid, they split, horizontally and/or vertically To simulate the global transport of mercury, puffs are transferred to Eulerian grid after a specified time downwind (~2 weeks), and the mercury is simulated on that grid from then on… This is how we model the local & regional impacts. But for globalmodeling, puff splitting overwhelms computational resources

17. Modeled vs. Measured Wet Deposition of Mercury at Sites in the Great Lakes Region NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

18. Standard source locations, MDN sites, and mercury emissions in the Great Lakes region NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

19. Keep track of the contributions from each source, and add them up Policy-Relevant Scenario Analysis Geographical Distribution of 2005 Atmospheric Mercury Deposition Contributions to Lake Erie NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

20. Modeling results show that these “regional” emissions are responsible for a large fraction of the modeled 2005 atmospheric deposition Results can be shown in many ways… • A tiny fraction of 2005 global mercury emissions within 500 km of Lake Erie Important policy implications! NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

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23. MODELING PRESENTATION OUTLINE • Trajectory-based Analysis • Meteorological Analysis • HYSPLIT-Hg – Great Lakes • HYSPLIT-Hg – Maryland • CMAQ-Hg – Li Pan • CAM-Chem-Hg -- Hang Lei this talk NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

24. MDN PA13 MDN PA60 MDN PA47 Prettyboy Reservoir Camden Deep Creek Lake Liberty Lake Reservoir MDN MD08 MDN PA00 Loch Raven Reservoir Chesapeake Bay Savage River Reservoir Canaan Valley Institute MDN MD99 Rock Creek Watershed Tuckahoe Creek Watershed MDN VA28 MDN VA08 Blackwater Wildlife Refuge St. Mary’s River Watershed Lake Anna MDN VA98 area and point receptors in and around Maryland in recent HYSPLIT-Hg modeling Smith Mountain Lake 24

25. Maryland-Region Area Receptors Included in Recent HYSPLIT-Hg Modeling Exercises

26. These receptors – and numerous point receptors – in and around Maryland have been included in recent HYSPLIT-Hg modeling… • To date, not enough resources to provide computational intensity required to produce source-attribution estimates for these Maryland receptors… • However, could be carried out, and in doing so, can leverage earlier model runs, i.e., can use all the runs done for the Great Lakes analysis, and just need to add simulations from “standard sources” in the Maryland region. NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

27. Thanks! NOAA Air Resources Laboratory