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The complex evaluation framework. Simple projects, complicated programs and complex development interventions. country-led planning and evaluation Non linear Many components or services Often covers whole country Multiple and broad objectives

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simple projects complicated programs and complex development interventions
Simple projects, complicated programs and complex development interventions
  • country-led planning and evaluation
  • Non linear
  • Many components or services
  • Often covers whole country
  • Multiple and broad objectives
  • May provide budget support with no clear definition of scope or services
  • multiple donors and agencies
  • context is critical

Large, complex

Complex interventions

  • May include a number of projects and wider scope
  • Often involves several blueprint approaches
  • Defined objectives but often broader and less precise and harder to measure
  • Often not time-bound
  • Context important
  • multiple donors and national agencies

Complicated programs

Simple projects

Small, simple

  • “blue print” producing standardized product
  • relatively linear
  • Limited number of services
  • Time-bound
  • defined and often small target population
  • Defined objectives
the special challenges of assessing outcomes for complex programs
The Special Challenges of Assessing Outcomes for Complex Programs
  • Most conventional impact evaluation designs cannot be applied to evaluating complex programs
  • No clearly defined activities or objectives
    • General budget and technical support integrated into broader government programs
    • Multiple activities
    • Target populations not clearly defined
    • Time-lines may not be clearly defined
special challenges continued
Special challenges continued
  • Multiple actors
  • No baseline data
  • Difficult to define a conventional comparison group
alternative approaches for defining the counterfactual for complex interventions
Alternative approaches for defining the counterfactual for complex interventions

1. Theory driven evaluation

3. Quantitative approaches

  • Qualitative approaches
  • Mixed method designs
  • Rating scales
  • Integrated strategies for strengthening the evaluation designs
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STRATEGIES FOR EVALUATING COMPLEX PROGRAMS

  • Counterfactual designs
  • Attribution analysis
  • Contribution analysis
  • Substitution analysis

Estimating impacts

The value-added of agency X

Theory-based approaches

Net increase in resources for a program

Mixed method designs

  • strengthening alternative counterfactuals
  • “Unpacking complex programs”
  • Portfolio analysis
  • Reconstructing baseline data
  • Creative use of secondary data
  • Secondary data
  • Triangulation

Qualitative approaches

Quantitative approaches

Rating scales

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