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Responding to climate ravages in pastoral areas of Kenya: Marsabit, Turkana and Kajiado

Responding to climate ravages in pastoral areas of Kenya: Marsabit, Turkana and Kajiado. Hannington Odame, PhD; David Gikungu, PhD and Elsie Kangai. Outline. Overview of climate change & food security Motivation for project Key findings: Rainfall patterns and trends

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Responding to climate ravages in pastoral areas of Kenya: Marsabit, Turkana and Kajiado

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  1. Responding to climate ravages in pastoral areas of Kenya: Marsabit, Turkana and Kajiado Hannington Odame, PhD; David Gikungu, PhD and Elsie Kangai

  2. Outline • Overview of climate change & food security • Motivation for project • Key findings: • Rainfall patterns and trends • Temperature patterns, trends • Vulnerability • Effects of climate change on pastoralism • Pastoralists’ responses to climate change • Proposed policy actions • Framework for research partnership

  3. Impacts of climate change on food security • Global • World food demand will be 40% higher by 2050 • Sub Saharan Africa and South Asia countries are more Vulnerable to Climate Change and Variability Global Community • Community • Engendering women and youth • Household • Low agricultural & livestock productivity & poverty National • National • High vulnerability in Arid & Semi-Arid Areas (ASALs) of Kenya • Kenya is a water deficit country: impact on feeds & fodder, household use Household

  4. Motivation Project: Managing Scarcity and Plenty: Towards a Climate Smart Pastoral Innovation in Kenya Funding partners: Open Society Initiative for Eastern Africa (OSIEA) Period: September 2018-August 2020 Goal: To strengthen evidence on climate- smart pastoral innovations and to build response capacity to climatic change/extreme weather conditions, market opportunities and policy.

  5. Motivation Specific objectives • To build evidence on climate-smart pastoral innovations through literature review & KIIs • To prepare pastoral communities for active participation in the policy processes • To provide spaces for sharing evidence on policy and practice

  6. Selected case studies • Kajiado: innovations in fodder and pasture • Marsabit: innovations in managing water supply • Turkana: the changing role of Community Disease Reporters (CDRs)

  7. Project activities • Project sub-domain: https://cspi.cabe-africa.org/ • Literature review –background report • Engagement of 3 local capacity builders • Commissioning of county situation reports • Facilitated 2 county level & 1 national policy dialogue platform • Video documentary • 3 policy briefs produced • B2B platform planned for June 2020

  8. Bottom-up approach to policy engagement

  9. Upcoming events

  10. Key findings: rainfall patterns • The rainfall patterns, like most parts of East Africa, are bimodal with two peaks, one in March-May, referred to as the Long Rains season, and the other one in October-December (Short Rains season –increasing more reliable). • The rainfall patterns are influenced, with varying effects, by atmospheric phenomena such as the El Nino, La Nina, Madded-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole. • The rainfall charts of the 1960-2014 period for Lodwar, Marsabit and Kajiado depict evident rainfall variability with extreme events

  11. Key findings: rainfall patterns • Neither of the two main rainfall seasons indicates a significant trend • The rainfall variability charts, however, depict a more decisive pattern with a tendency towards higher number of below normal rainfall incidents than the case for normal to above normal incidents in both MAM and OND seasons. • Climate change has largely been manifested by rising temperatures and erratic rainfall patterns.

  12. Rainfall patterns Marsabit MAM and OND seasons mean rainfall (1960-2014) Source: KMD, 2019 Marsabit receives an average annual rainfall of 712.9 mm

  13. Lodwar MAM and OND seasons mean rainfall (1960-2014) Source: KMD, 2019 Lodwar receives an average annual rainfall of 214.4 mm

  14. Standardized precipitation index for the MAM & OND season in Kajiado County (1970-2010) MAM Season OND season Source: KMD, 2019 Rainfall in Kajiado ranges from 300 mm in the Amboseli basin to 1250 mm in the Ngong Hills and Kilimanjaro areas –increasing incidences of drought

  15. Annual drought severity index in Kajiado County Source: Bobadoye et al (2016)

  16. Analyses of maximum and minimum temperatures over this 34-year period indicate a steady rising trend. Key findings: temperature patterns in Lodwar (Turkana County) Source: KMD, 2019

  17. Key findings: temperature patterns in Marsabit Marsabit mean maximum temperature Source: KMD, 2019 Marsabit is in a relatively cooler zone compared to Lodwar. Analyses of maximum and minimum temperatures over this 40-year period indicate a steady rising trend.

  18. Kenya vulnerability composite:A function of exposure, sensitivity and levels of adaptive capacity • Marsabit, Turkana & Kajiado experience high exposure to climate induced hazards • Affecting people, property and livelihoods

  19. Key findings: effects of climate change on pastoralism

  20. Key findings: effects of climate change on pastoralism cont’d

  21. High lack of adaptive capacity in the 3 counties: Marsabit, Turkana & Kajiado Source:

  22. Key findings: pastoralists’ responses to climate change • Pastoral communities are actively responding to changing climatic conditions • They make unique contributions towards resilience rooted in Indigenous Knowledge (IK) and practice: • strategies of maintaining genetic and species diversity provide a form of insurance under a changing climate; • mixed herd serving diverse purposes, • diversified use of landscape, mobility and access to multiple resources increases capacity to respond to changing climate; • traditional system of governance and social networks contribute to ability to collectively respond to environmental change thus enhance resilience. • Overall, IK systems are evolving and have a lot to offer, especially for interventions aimed at supporting vulnerable communities.

  23. Proposed policy actions POLICY ACTIONS Capacity building Empowering women & youth • Land use planning • Knowledge integration • Policy dialogue platform • Lesson learning & scale up Co-created Knowledge • Pastoral organisations/ champions • Women & food entrepreneurs • Documentation for learning and scale-up • Policy advocacy Pasture & fodder Drivers: Climate change, demography, innovation, policy Inclusive pastoral innovations Water supply Animal Disease Reporting Sustainable Development Resilience

  24. Framework for research partnership Local partnerships • County governments • Community Based Organizations (CBOs) • Social entrepreneurs on climate actions Areas for capacity development • Training on documentation and validation of Indigenous Technical Knowledge and climate change actions -for integration into new resilience frameworks • Technical support on utilization of big data on climate change actions to inform planning, budgeting and M&E. • Capacity development on political economy of policy processes with respect to the devolved system of governance. • Gender-mainstreaming into climate actions (intergenerational knowledge transfer, mentorship, youth & women) • Capacity needed to develop a pool of green investments for the water sector in ASAL counties in line with the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC’s)

  25. Thank you!

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