NCHRP 20-83 Long-Range Strategic Issues Facing the Transportation Industry

1. NCHRP 20-83Long-Range Strategic Issues Facing the Transportation Industry NCHRP 20-83Long-Range Strategic Issues Facing the Transportation Industry An Update Crawford Jencks ------------------- July 2011 RAC Meeting

2. Seven — $1.0 Million Projects • Freight and the economy MIT/Christopher Caplice • Technologies and system performance RAND Corporation/Steven Popper • Preservation, maintenance, and renewal Texas A&M Research Foundation/Stuart Anderson • Energy supplies and alternative fuels RAND Corporation/Paul Sorenson • Climate change PB Americas/Michael Meyer • Socio-demographics and travel demand NuStats/Johanna Zmud • Sustainability systems and organizing principles Booz Allen Hamilton/John Wiegmann

3. Project 20-83 Long-Term Strategic IssuesWHY? • The transportation industry faces challenges today, AND it will face new and emerging challenges decades from now that may reshape transportation priorities and needs. • DOTs must be prepared to anticipate the implications of the future. • Targeted research is needed to focus on these long-term strategic issues—lessen the “surprise factor.”

4. Overall Concept20-83 Series • Avoid being constrained by the present • Project outward 30-50 years • Create possible, representative future “what-if” scenarios • Determine factors influencing scenarios • Provide guidance on monitoring those factors and assessing the results: Is change occurring? • Offer strategies to state DOTs to adapt, mitigate, or revise change —Be proactive rather than reactive—

5. Program Goal No. 1: Anticipate the future issues so that we are better prepared to meet new and emerging challenges.

6. Program Goal No. 2: Explore visions of what the future should look like, so that we can help shape the future through our decision making. .

7. NCHRP 20-83 (01) Economic Changes Driving Future Freight Transportation Massachusetts Institute of Technology/Christopher Caplice Provide decision makers with a critical analysis of the driving forces behind high-impact economic changes and business sourcing patterns that may affect the U.S. freight transportation system. To be completed: December 2011

9. NCHRP 20-83 (02) Expediting Future Technologies for Enhancing Transportation System Performance RAND Corporation/Steven Popper Develop a process that transportation agencies can use to identify, assess, shape, and adopt new and emerging technologies to achieve long-term system performance objectives.  To b e completed: June 2012

10. Products • Practical framework for transportation professionals to think more effectively about technology. • Tools to assist in technology assessment. • Guidelines for agency use of the assessment results. • Case study of bridge inspection technologies.

11. NCHRP 20-83 (03) Long –Range Strategic Issues Affecting Preservation, Maintenance, and Renewal of Highway Infrastructure Texas A&M Research Foundation/Stuart Anderson Guidance for transportation stakeholders on emerging materials, tools, approaches, and technologies that could be used to deal with long-range (30 to 50 years) highway infrastructure maintenance, preservation, and renewal needs and ensure satisfactory system condition and performance. To be completed: June 2013

12. Phase I Key Results • Identified 67 scenario drivers for 13 technical areas • Developed 78 scenarios for 13 technical areas (six per area based on negative, mid-range, and positive worlds) • Aggregated 67 into 13 critical drivers • Climate Change • Economic Growth • Priority on Environmental Quality • Funding • Government Role • Mobility • Population Density • Public Commitment to Sustainability • Resources/Energy • Road Freight • Security • Technology/Innovation • Transportation Choices/Complexity

13. Phase I Results • Critical Scenario Driver Impact – Examples • Economic Growth • Expected Future: Some positive change with slow growth rate • Alternative Future: Constant and flat or some negative change and a declining growth rate • Public Commitment to Sustainability • Expected Future: More commitment with slow rate of commitment • Alternative Future: Less commitment with even slower rate of commitment • Final Scenarios – Multi-driver based and not Linear (under development)

14. NCHRP 20-83 (04) Effects of Changing Transportation Energy Supplies and Alternative Sources on Transportation RAND Corporation/Paul Sorenson • Determine how the mandate, role, funding, and operations of DOTs will likely be affected by future changes in long-term energy supply and demand • Identify strategies and actions that can be used by the DOTs to plan and prepare for these effects.  • To be completed: June 2012

15. Illustrative Details of Composite Energy Use Scenarios

16. Illustrative Details of Composite Travel Scenarios

17. Illustrative Details of Federal Policy Composite Scenarios

18. NCHRP 20-83 (05) Synthesize the current state of worldwide knowledge regarding the probable range of impacts of climate change for the period 2030-2050 Recommend institutional arrangements, tools, approaches, and strategies that state departments of transportation (DOTs) can use during system planning, design, construction, operations, and maintenance to adapt infrastructure and operations to these impacts and lessen their effects. To be completed: March 2012 Climate Change and the Highway System: Impacts and Adaptation Approaches PB Americas/Michael Meyer

19. Preliminary U.S. Climate Changes: 2010-2050 Average Annual Temperature: Lower 48, +4°F; Upper Midwest, +5-6°F; Coastal Regions, +2-3°F; Alaska, +6-7°F U.S. Winter Temperatures: Less than average annual change but magnitude uncertain. U.S. Summer Temperatures: Greater than average annual change but magnitude uncertain. Annual Precipitation: Wetter in the eastern U.S.; drier in the west, south-central, deep south, and Florida; much wetter in Alaska. Sea Level Rise (intermediate model): Average, 6.4±3.5 inches; maximum, 16.8 inches (LA); minimum, -5.6 inches (AK). Extreme Events: Decrease of 1-3 weeks of days below freezing; increase in north of days with >0.4 inches of rainfall. ALL ESTIMATES HAVE HIGH DEGREES OF UNCERTAINTY!

23. NCHRP 20-83 (06) Effects of Socio-Demographics on Travel Demand NuStats/Johanna Zmud Determine how socio-demographic factors are likely to affect travel demand over the next 30 to 50 years and to identify strategies and actions that can be used by policymakers in state and local transportation and planning agencies to plan and prepare for alternative future scenarios. To be completed: March 2012

24. 1st interim report identified key drivers … Individual-Level: • Population Size and Growth • Geo-Demographics of Population Size and Growth • Household Structure and Composition • Household-Based Economic Activity • Cultural and Social Diversity Macro Level: • External Factors Intertwined with Socio-Demographics • External Factors that Impact Scenario Analysis

25. Phase 3 Technical Memo examined 4 broad scenarios: • Momentum – gradual changes without radical shifts • Technology Triumphs – technology solves all problems • Global Chaos – collapse in globalism and sustainability • Gentle Footprint – widespread shift to low-impact living Key assumptions and indicators will be identified for each scenario. Future tasks will model how DOTs can predict, influence, and adapt to these scenarios.

26. NCHRP 20-83 (07) Sustainable Transportation Systems and Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies Booz Allen Hamilton/John Wiegmann Provide a framework for transportation agencies to use to identify and understand the future trends and external forces that will increasingly put pressure on their ability to carry out their responsibilities to (1) meet society’s evolving demand for transportation services and (2) meet society’s emerging need to operate on a more sustainable basis.  To be completed: September 2012

27. Major Drivers…

28. Overview of the research…

29. NCHRP 20-83A December 2010 Workshop & Supplemental Scan of Scientific and Technological Advances

30. Workshop held Dec. 8-9, 2010 • SCOR • Principal Investigators • Panel Chairs • PIs presented research approaches and summarized early work efforts • Discussion of potential NCHRP 20-83 topics • No new topics selected • Workshop report available at: http://apps.trb.org/cmsfeed/TRBNetProjectDisplay.asp?ProjectID=2934

31. NCHRP 20-83B Communication Plan and Presentation Materials • SCOR anticipates a need for a communication plan to identify the most effective methods and venues for disseminating this information. The requested funding of $500,000 will enable the development and implementation of a communications plan for the entire series of projects. SCOR requested a detailed scope of work be presented for review at their Fall 2011 meeting.

32. Thank you! Crawford Jencks Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Transportation Research Board cjencks@nas.edu 202/334-3233

33. Thoughts about the Future When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people: those who let it happen, those who make it happen, and those who wonder what happened. John M. Richardson, Jr., American University In times of change, learners inherit the Earth, while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists. Eric Hoffer, American writer 1902-1983 If you don’t like change, you’re going to like irrelevance even less. General Eric Shinseki, retired Chief of Staff, U.S. Army