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9 January 2012 Washington, D.C.

Providing Country Level Research: Climate Change in Bangladesh and Cambodia Timothy Thomas and Mark Rosegrant International Food Policy Research Institute. 9 January 2012 Washington, D.C. Objectives. Assess impact of climate change on yields of major crops

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9 January 2012 Washington, D.C.

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  1. Providing Country Level Research: Climate Change in Bangladesh and CambodiaTimothy Thomas andMark RosegrantInternational Food Policy Research Institute 9 January 2012 Washington, D.C.

  2. Objectives • Assess impact of climate change on yields of major crops • Assist in designing policies that increase the performance and resilience of agriculture and the wider economy to climatic variability and longer-term climatic change • Collaboration and policy outreach Page 2

  3. Climate Change Model Components • GCM climate scenarios • Four GCM using IPCC SRES A1B scenario, downscaled temperature and rainfall • SPAM • Spatial distribution of crops based on crop calendars, soil characteristics, climate of 20 most important crops • DSSAT crop model • Biophysical crop response to temp and precipitation

  4. DSSAT Crop Model • Simulate plant growth and crop yield by variety day-by-day, in response to • Temperature • Precipitation • Soil characteristics • Applied nitrogen • CO2 fertilization • Simulations at crop-specific locations (using local climate, soil and topographical attributes) • Resolution is 5 arc minutes, approximately 10 km • Bangladesh has 1,789 gridcells • Cambodia has 2,162 gridcells

  5. Sample of the geographically refined downscaled climate date (CNRM A1B) Changes between 2000 and 2050 climates Top left: change in annual rainfall Top right: change in rainfall in wettest 3 months Bottom right: change in normal annual maximum temperature.

  6. Yield changes for rainfed aman rice in Bangladesh: compare adaptation to business as usual Top: CNRM Bottom: MIROC. Left: Business as usual, using the same cultivar and planting month in 2050 as in 2000 Right: Optimal cultivar and month in 2050.

  7. Yield changes for irrigated boro rice in Bangladesh: compare adaptation to business as usual Top: CNRM Bottom: MIROC. Left: Business as usual, using the same cultivar and planting month in 2050 as in 2000 Right: Optimal cultivar and month in 2050.

  8. Yield changes for rainfed wet season rice in Cambodia: compare adaptation to business as usual Top: CSIRO Bottom: MIROC. Left: Business as usual, using the same cultivar and planting month in 2050 as in 2000 Right: Optimal cultivar and month in 2050.

  9. Yield changes for irrigated dry season rice in Cambodia: compare adaptation to business as usual Top: CSIRO Bottom: MIROC. Left: Business as usual, using the same cultivar and planting month in 2050 as in 2000 Right: Optimal cultivar and month in 2050.

  10. Bangladesh household survey, percent harvest losses 800 households, 20 households per village in 40 villages, stratified by 7 agroecozones

  11. Collaborators and Outreach Collaborators • Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) • Data Analysis and Technical Assistance (Bangladesh) • Ministry of the Environment, Cambodia • CDRI - Cambodian Development Research Institute Capacity building of collaborators in Bangladesh • Two-day training in GIS software (GRASS, QGIS, ArcView 3.2, ArcGIS 9.0) and statistical software (R) • National Agricultural Research and Extension Workshop - Brought together experts from Bangladesh and Cambodia in Dhaka, June 2011 Page 11

  12. Collaborators and Outreach (continued) Bangladesh Final Workshop • Participants from NARs, Agricultural Extension, NGOs, Ministry of Agriculture Cambodia Final Workshop • Key leaders from Council for Agriculture and Rural Development, Ministry of the Environment, and Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries External Conferences - research was promulgated • Cambodia Food Security and Agricultural Policy Stock-taking Roundtable Meeting, Phnom Penh, November 2010 • Enhancing Food Security in Bangladesh: Evidence for Action, Dhaka, October 2011 Page 12

  13. Policy Implications • Vital role for agricultural research and extension to develop appropriate varieties and techniques • Communicate ideas to farmers – traditional methods of learning cannot keep pace with speed of change • Increasing cropping intensities, more work needs to be done on optimizing farming systems / crop rotations • Multiple-stress seed development, especially in Bangladesh (e.g., rice that is tolerant to both salt and submersion) Page 13

  14. Policy Implications • Improve capacity for seed production and marketing • Mobilize the private sector in research, extension, marketing, input sales • Safety nets and productivity recovery after farming shocks • Coastal areas subject to salinization and inundation from sea-level rise - develop options for farmers (e.g., relocation, aquaculture) Page 14

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