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Are All the Data Making a Difference?

Are All the Data Making a Difference?. Are All the Data Making a Difference?. Data Don’t Guarantee Understanding!. Numerical Simulation 24 hours CPU = 1 hour real 20 TB of output Still trying to understand. Mother Nature Real time! Still trying to understand.

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Are All the Data Making a Difference?

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  1. Are All the Data Making a Difference?

  2. Are All the Data Making a Difference?

  3. Data Don’t Guarantee Understanding! Numerical Simulation 24 hours CPU = 1 hour real 20 TB of output Still trying to understand Mother Nature Real time! Still trying to understand

  4. Sample: March 2000 Fort Worth Tornadic Storm

  5. Local TV Station Radar Tornado

  6. NWS 12-hr Computer Forecast Valid at 6 pm CDT (near tornado time)No Explicit Evidence of Precipitation in North Texas

  7. Reality Was Quite Different!

  8. 7 pm 8 pm 6 pm Radar Fort Worth Xue et al. (2003)

  9. 7 pm 8 pm 6 pm Radar Fort Worth 4 hr 3 hr 2 hr Fort Worth Fcst With Radar Data Xue et al. (2003)

  10. Real Time Testing Today: FORECAST

  11. Real Time Testing Today: RADAR 9-Hour Forecast

  12. 9-Hour Forecast

  13. 9-Hour Forecast

  14. Challenges • Each set of forecasts (ensemble and individual) • produces 6 TB of output PER DAY • Requires 9000 cores (750 nodes) of the Kraken Cray XT5 at Oak Ridge • Takes 6.5 hours to run • Provisioning of data in real time • HUGE value for research – predictability! • Management in a repository – retention time? • Experiment reproducibility!! • Creating products that will benefit the public (smart device location-based warnings)

  15. Warn on Explicit Forecast?

  16. Challenges • Be careful what you wish for! A one-hour model-based “tornado warning” would be a game changer • Social and behavioral science elements are critical • Our ability to effectively warn the public and understand its response is relatively crude

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