Data: HadISST
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Data: HadISST Period: 1870-2004. Nino3.4 Index (170W-120W, 5S-5N). Regression analysis -using HadGEMs, MPI-ESMs, and GFDL-ESMs-. Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (HadGEM). Tropical Region Period: 1870-2004. Surface Temperature. D(0)JF(+1). MAM(+1). JJA(+1).

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Data: HadISST Period: 1870-2004

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Data hadisst period 1870 2004

Data: HadISST

Period: 1870-2004

Nino3.4 Index (170W-120W, 5S-5N)


Regression analysis using hadgems mpi esms and gfdl esms

Regression analysis-using HadGEMs, MPI-ESMs, and GFDL-ESMs-


Data hadisst period 1870 2004

Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (HadGEM)

Tropical Region

Period: 1870-2004

Surface Temperature

D(0)JF(+1)

MAM(+1)

JJA(+1)


Data hadisst period 1870 2004

Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (MPI-ESM)

Tropical Region

Period: 1870-2004

Surface Temperature

D(0)JF(+1)

MAM(+1)

JJA(+1)


Data hadisst period 1870 2004

Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (NOAA-GFDL)

Tropical Region

Period: 1870-2004

Surface Temperature

D(0)JF(+1)

MAM(+1)

JJA(+1)


Data hadisst period 1870 2004

Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (HadGEM)

Tropical Region

Period: 1870-2004

Precipitation(mmday-1)/ Surface Wind (ms-1)

D(0)JF(+1)

MAM(+1)

JJA(+1)


Data hadisst period 1870 2004

Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (MPI-ESM)

Tropical Region

Period: 1870-2004

Precipitation(mmday-1)/ Surface Wind (ms-1)

D(0)JF(+1)

MAM(+1)

JJA(+1)


Data hadisst period 1870 2004

Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (NOAA-GFDL)

Tropical Region

Period: 1870-2004

Precipitation(mmday-1)/ Surface Wind (ms-1)

D(0)JF(+1)

MAM(+1)

JJA(+1)


Data hadisst period 1870 2004

East Asia

(90E-160E, 10N-60N)

Period: 1870-2004

Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (HadGEM)

Precipitation(mmday-1)/ Surface Wind (ms-1)

D(0)JF(+1)

JJA(+1)

MAM(+1)


Data hadisst period 1870 2004

East Asia

(90E-160E, 10N-60N)

Period: 1870-2004

Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (MPI-ESM)

Precipitation(mmday-1)/ Surface Wind (ms-1)

D(0)JF(+1)

JJA(+1)

MAM(+1)


Data hadisst period 1870 2004

East Asia

(90E-160E, 10N-60N)

Period: 1870-2004

Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (NOAA-GFDL)

Precipitation(mmday-1)/ Surface Wind (ms-1)

D(0)JF(+1)

JJA(+1)

MAM(+1)


Data hadisst period 1870 2004

Conclusions

  • Among all models, MPI’s models and GFDL’s models relatively well reproduce the ENSO signals just like in the observations in their historical run.

  • It has shown in the observational reanalysis that the El Nino could cause stronger anticyclone over the western north Pacific which will ultimately lead to more precipitation over the East Asia in the next summer.

  • Especially, GFDL’s models relatively well reproduce the ENSO-East Asian summer monsoon relationship.

  • However, even the models known as good performances didn’t properly reproduce the ENSO-induced variability of the East Asia Summer Monsoon.

  • Hence, there’s still much to be examined and improved for those relationship.


Data hadisst period 1870 2004

East Asia

(90E-160E, 10N-60N)

Period: 1870-2004

Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (NOAA-GFDL)

Surface Temperature

D(0)JF(+1)

JJA(+1)

MAM(+1)


Data hadisst period 1870 2004

East Asia

(90E-160E, 10N-60N)

Period: 1870-2004

Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (HadGEM)

Surface Temperature

D(0)JF(+1)

JJA(+1)

MAM(+1)


Data hadisst period 1870 2004

East Asia

(90E-160E, 10N-60N)

Period: 1870-2004

Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (MPI-ESM)

Surface Temperature

D(0)JF(+1)

JJA(+1)

MAM(+1)


Data hadisst period 1870 2004

Composite analysis


Data hadisst period 1870 2004

Data: HadISST

Period: 1870-2004

Nino3.4 Index (170W-120W, 5S-5N)

1979-2004


Data hadisst period 1870 2004

Composite based on OBS Nino3.4 Index (MPI-ESM)

Next Summer (JJA)

Precipitation(mmday-1)/Surface Wind (ms-1)


Data hadisst period 1870 2004

Composite based on OBS Nino3.4 Index (MPI-ESM)

Next Summer (JJA)

Surface Temperature


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