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Learning Continuity and Pandemic Flu Management

This article discusses the learning continuity model and eLearning requirements and processes for managing pandemic flu situations. It explores the implications and outcomes of previous outbreaks such as SARS and the H1N1 flu.

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Learning Continuity and Pandemic Flu Management

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  1. Learning Continuity and Pandemic Flu Management Daniel Tan & Alan Soong Centre for Educational Development http://www.ced.ntu.edu.sg e: ethtan@ntu.edu.sg

  2. Outline • Singapore and NTU context • SARS • NTU campus community profile • Learning Continuity Model • eLearning Week: requirements and process model • Operational considerations • Outcomes • Implications

  3. 2003: SARS in Singapore Push Factor #1 Number of cases: 238 Number of deaths: 33 Fatality rate: 14%

  4. - 5.4% drop

  5. Push Factor #2 Singapore:Eye of the Epicentre of current avian flu outbreak

  6. Epicenter

  7. http://www.wpro.who.int/sites/csr/data/data_Graphs.htm Source: http://www.wpro.who.int/sites/csr/data/data_Graphs.htm Case Fatality Rate 2003

  8. cytokine storm – uncontrolled immune response Normal Flu Distribution

  9. Case Fatality Rate

  10. Campus Age Distribution: • 20,000 undergraduates • 7,000 post-graduates • 2,000 staff • 100 children at nursery • Not to scale 30:70 60:40 38:62

  11. eLearning Week: Requirements and Process Model as a Tool Of Learning Continuityfor Pandemic Flu Management • non-alarmist • good push to promote eLearning processes and practices

  12. http://edveNTUre.sg

  13. Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (DORSCON)

  14. NTU’s Business Continuity Plan - Learning and Research LOA: Leave of Absence HQO: Home Quarantine Order Campus closure

  15. eLearning Week I Schedule School-based: to focus on learning continuity process vs system load issues

  16. eLearning Week II Schedule Scale up to College level: To include the Colleges in the preparation process

  17. Awareness- posters- announcements- e-announcements

  18. Learning Continuity Model:Selected Core Learning Tools Lab-based sessions exempted

  19. eLW Learning Activities Guide Communication: Staff must know what to do; Students must know what is expected of them

  20. PreseNTUr for Self-paced Learning

  21. acuConference Virtual Classwith dual cameras

  22. Online Discussion Groups

  23. eAssessment Post-lecture self tests Timely self-feedback opportunity for students Open online forum item for student peers and/or teachers Teaching discussion point and lecture review Monitoring of student performance with remedial and preventive response Provides a level of Quality Assurance of the eLW processes

  24. eUrekaOnline Project Work Management System

  25. ClosingtheLoop

  26. OPTUS: Online Progress Tracking Usage System • Track activities and commitment to planned activities • Recorded lectures • Online Discussion Forum & Virtual classes • Self-test • eUreka Project work System • For management to be duly informed of the eLW learning continuity situation

  27. Lecture Recording Review StatisticsTotal Usage

  28. PreseNTUr system configuration • 1 x AcuManager • 12 x AcuStream Video Servers • 8 existing servers • 4 new servers setup in preparation of eLW • Can support up to 2,400 users via video streaming

  29. Content Delivery NetworkContent Access Process –> optimum performance redirection and very high scalability 2 1 4 AcuStream AcuStream AcuStream AcuStream student clicks on hyperlink edveNTUre.sg AcuManager IDM 2000 3

  30. Provides a quantitative understanding of the system back-end operations Graphical data of CPU, network and database services Provide understanding of load impact due to online access to learning continuity Visualization of System Utilization

  31. Implications

  32. University can – with confidence - press the button earlier

  33. Assoc Prof Daniel Tan e: ethtan@ntu.edu.sg ____ __

  34. Spares

  35. Disease Transmission ofSARS and Avian Flu

  36. Disease Transmission of SARS

  37. Assumptions aboutDisease Transmission • No one is immune to the virus; 30% of the population will become ill • Most will become ill 2 days (incubation range 1-10, typically 7) after exposure to the virus • People may be contagious up to 24 hours before they know they are sick • People are most contagious the first 2 days of being sick • Sick children are more contagious than adults • On average, each ill person can infect 2 or 3 others (if no precautions are taken) Contact

  38. Assumptions aboutDisease Transmission • Pandemics move through community in waves • Each wave in a community will last 6-8 weeks • There will be at least 2 “waves” of pandemic disease, likely separated by several months • The entire pandemic period (all waves) will last about 18 months to 2 years • Disease may break out in multiple locations simultaneously, or in isolated pockets

  39. Arithmetic of Pandemic Fluuncontrolled for country of 4M population

  40. Potential Realities over 8 weeks 30% of population = 1.2 million people sick (including 300,000 children) 120,000 hospital admissions 30,000 deaths (includes 8,000 children); 500 deaths per day (about 140 children) Not enough: Vaccine, antiviral meds (tamiflu), hospital beds, ventilators, face masks, etc. …plus schools closed, many parents/family members ill, potential quarantines, economy in trouble, little assistance from “the outside”, etc.

  41. 1918 Spanish Flu (H1N1 similar to H5N1 virus)

  42. Implications & Outcomes

  43. http://mercerselect.com/article/20076090/t/y2-cj0zMzI1MiZsPTQ5MDgzJm09NTAwODMmZj0z-ZD05NDE2/http://mercerselect.com/article/20076090/t/y2-cj0zMzI1MiZsPTQ5MDgzJm09NTAwODMmZj0z-ZD05NDE2/

  44. Post-perspective We cannot stop a pandemic (beyond your control), but we can lessen the impact (within your control) by planning, preparation and anticipation Then when it strikes, there will be more options to consider After-shock Unprepared Impact Prepared Weeks

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