Transit Estimation and Mode Split. CE 451/551. Source: NHI course on Travel Demand Forecasting ( 152054A) Session 7. Terminology. HOV Light Rail Portland ; Florence Heavy rail Commuter rail Local bus service Express bus service Paratransit service Busways Headways/frequency
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Source: NHI course on Travel Demand Forecasting (152054A) Session 7
-0.15 to -0.4
Building blocks for DMS models
Rank desirability of the alternate transportation modes
Probability models (overcomes limitations of deterministic utility functions)
Logit the most common
Incorporate utility equations into probabilistic equations
Binomial logit models
Predict choice between two alternatives
Multinomial logit models
Predict choice between more than two alternatives
Just like trip generation and distribution … can you give examples?
Auto Utility Equation: UA= -0.025(IVT) -0.050(OVT) - 0.0024(COST)
Transit Utility Equation: UB= -0.025(IVT) -0.050(OVT) – 0.10(WAIT) – 0.20(XFER) - 0.0024(COST)
IVT= in-vehicle time in minutes
OVT = out of vehicle time in minutes
COST = out of pocket cost in cents
WAIT = wait time (time spent at bus stop waiting for bus)
XFER = number of transfers
Question: what is the implied cost of IVT? OVT? WAIT? XFER?
Mode OVT IVT Cost (cents) Probabilistic Models
1 person 5 17 200.0
2-person carpool 5 21 100.0
3-person carpool 5 23 66.6
4-person carpool 5 25 50.0
Transit 7 33 160.0
Say, from trip distribution, the number of trips was 14,891. Calculate the number of trips by mode using the probabilities calculated.
Mode Trips (Zone 5 to Zone 1)