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HyMeX activities in Croatia during SOP1

HyMeX activities in Croatia during SOP1 B. Ivančan-Picek , M. Tudor, K. Horvath, A. Stanešić, S. Ivatek-Šahdan Meteorological and Hydrological Service Research and Development Department Zagreb, Croatia http://meteo.hr picek@cirus.dhz.hr. INTRODUCTION.

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HyMeX activities in Croatia during SOP1

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  1. HyMeXactivities in Croatia during SOP1 B. Ivančan-Picek, M. Tudor, K. Horvath, A. Stanešić, S. Ivatek-Šahdan Meteorological and Hydrological Service Research and Development Department Zagreb, Croatia http://meteo.hr picek@cirus.dhz.hr 6th MetMed & MI5, 20-22 February 2017, Zagreb

  2. INTRODUCTION The Global Energy and Water cycle Exchanges (GEWEX) project is dedicated to understanding Earth’s water cycle and energy fluxes at the surface and in the atmosphere. SQs: GEWEX (WCRP/WWRP) coordinates science activities to facilitate research into the global water cycle and interactions between the land and the atmosphere. www.gewex.org 6th MetMed & MI5, 20-22 February 2017, Zagreb

  3. INTRODUCTION HyMeX Hydrological cycle in Mediterranean Experiment www.hymex.org HyMeX can be seen as direct implementation of the GEWEX imperatives in the context of the Mediterranean region GEWEX imperatives - Draft mission statement - HyMeX aims: "developing improved observational, diagnostic, and modelling capabilities for measuring and predicting global and regional energy and water variations, trends, and extremes, such as heat waves, floods, and droughts, and provide the science underpinning climate services" HyMeX is endorsed by WWRP and WCRP (GEWEX, CORDEX) and is supported by national and european agencies through dedicated projects (MISTRALS, ENVI-MED, NASA, FEDER, ESA......) 10-year international project (2010-2020) concerted experimental effort at the international level aiming at advancing the scientific knowledge of the water cycle variability in all compartments (land, sea and atmosphere at various time and spatial scales 6th MetMed & MI5, 20-22 February 2017, Zagreb

  4. INTRODUCTION The Mediterranean basin: A nearly enclosed sea surrounded by very urbanized littorals and mountains from which numerous rivers originate A unique highly coupled system ( Ocean-Atmosphere-Continental surfaces) A region prone to high-impact events related to the water cycle: • Heavy precipitation, flash-flooding during fall • Severe cyclogenesis, strong winds, large swell during winters • Droughts, heat waves, forest fires during summers Water resources: a critical issue • Freshwater is rare and unevenly distributed in a situation of increasing water demands and climate change (180 millions people face water scarcity)  The Mediterranean is one of the two main Hot Spot regions of the climate change Drobinski, P., Ducrocq, V., Alpert, P., Anagnostou, E., Béranger, K., Borga, M., Braud, I., Chanzy, A., Davolio, S., Delrieu, G., Estournel, C., Filali Boubrahmi, N., Font, J., Grubisic, V., Gualdi, S., Homar, V., Ivančan-Picek, B., Kottmeier, C., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., Lionello, P., Llasat, M. C., Ludwig, W., Lutoff, C., Mariotti, A., Richard, E., Romero, R., Rotunno, R., Roussot, O., Ruin, I., Somot, S., Taupier-Letage, I., Tintoré, J., Uijlenhoet, R. and Wernli, H., 2014: HyMeX, a 10-year multidisciplinary program on the Mediterranean water cycle, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95, 1063-1082. 6th MetMed & MI5, 20-22 February 2017, Zagreb

  5. HyMeX SOP 1 (5 Sep – 6 Nov 2012) Objective : Improve the understanding and forecasting of the processes that lead to heavy precipitation and flash-flooding ~ 200 instruments deployed for the field campaign 16 over 20 IOPs dedicated to heavy precipitation • 250 flight hours (SAFIRE/ATR42, SAFIRE/F20, KIT/DO128) • 850 radiosoundings • 19 boundary layer baloons • 4 gliders • 15 argo and marisondes floats HyMeX data http://mistral/sedoo.fr/hymex Ducrocq, V., et al, 2014: HyMeX-SOP1, the field campaign dedicated to heavyprecipitation and flash flooding in the northwesternMediterranean, Bulletinof the American Meteorological Society, 95, 1083-1100. 6th MetMed & MI5, 20-22 February 2017, Zagreb

  6. HyMeX SOP 1 in Croatia Croatian research community was active in the preparation of scientific programme, take a part in scientific steering commitee DHMZ supported the HyMeX Operational Centre – visiting scientists, providing with meteorological expertise DHMZ provided all operational opservations, numerical modelling products and forecast data (ALADIN 8 km and non-hydrostatic ALADIN 2 km) Several extra radiosoundings were deployed in Zadar –Zemunik at 06 and 18 UTC (in addition at 00 and 12 UTC) – EUMETNET Observation Programme 16 IOPs dedicated to heavy precipitation over the western Mediterranean 8 IOPs affected the Adriatic 6th HyMeX workshop, 7-10 May 2012, Primošten, Croatia 6th MetMed & MI5, 20-22 February 2017, Zagreb

  7. Total precipitation amount during SOP 1 measured by the Croatian rain gauge network • 15 days with daily rainfall exceeding 100 mm • more HPEs IOPs in Oct than in Sep • several of those events caused local urban flooding (Rijeka, Pula and Zadar) • the maximum precipitation was recorded in • the N Adriatic (exceeding 1.000 mm) • was above the corresponding climatology • (Zaninović et al., 2008) for Sep and Oct 6th MetMed & MI5, 20-22 February 2017, Zagreb

  8. IOPs over Croatia 6th MetMed & MI5, 20-22 February 2017, Zagreb

  9. IOP 2 – 12 Sep Intense convection Twin type of cyclone Cold front crossing the Alps Convergence SW advection 6th MetMed & MI5, 20-22 February 2017, Zagreb

  10. IOP 2 – 12 Sep Extreme value analysis Rijeka 220 mm/24 h 6th MetMed & MI5, 20-22 February 2017, Zagreb

  11. IOP 2 – 12 Sep ALADIN 2km (shaded) – hourly accumulated precipitation and TRMM 3B41RT precipitation estimates (squares), 23 UTC • Mesoscale characteristics were correctly reproduced • Better results obtained from ALADIN 2km • Model underestimates the max amount of precipitation • Model overestimated the rainfall above the mountains (southern Velebit) • Simulation lacked precipitation over the sea • Most precipitation was of convective origin • Simulation also represented a squall-like convergence line and associated precipitaton 6th MetMed & MI5, 20-22 February 2017, Zagreb

  12. IOPs over Croatia 6th MetMed & MI5, 20-22 February 2017, Zagreb

  13. IOP 4 – 13-14 Sep Bora SST ALADIN 2km (shaded) – hourly accumulated precipitation and TRMM 3B41RT precipitation estimates (squares), 24 h Sirocco Influence of SST – control simulation using OSTIA analysis more realistic ALADIN 2 km - OSTIA ALADIN 2 km - ARPEGE 6th MetMed & MI5, 20-22 February 2017, Zagreb

  14. IOPs over Croatia 6th MetMed & MI5, 20-22 February 2017, Zagreb

  15. IOP 18 – 31 Oct - 2 Nov Scirocco over Adriatic Seablocked by the Alps - barrier wind; Convergence over N Adriatic triggered and concentrated intense convection and heavy rainfall (Rijeka 171.4 mm/24h); Venice Lagoon was hit by acqua alta ALADIN 2km (shaded) – hourly accumulated precipitation and TRMM 3B41RT precipitation estimates (squares), 24 h Sirocco ALADIN 2 km overestimated rainfall above mountains; it was closer to the extreme amounts in the Rijeka area ALADIN 8 km ALADIN 2 km 6th MetMed & MI5, 20-22 February 2017, Zagreb

  16. CONCLUSIONS • IOP2-related HPE in Croatia was a short, but remarkable event, with ~250 mm in a few hours and 20 min precipitation intensity that reached return periods longer than 1000 years • IOP4 – excellent example of very intensive heat loss caused by a strong Bora wind – nned for further improvements of the role of SST and surface heat fluxes over the Adriatic Sea • Models predicted well the overall precipitation pattern, but lacked precipitation over the sea and underestimated the measured maxima, but overestimated the precipitation over the mountains • For HPEs in the northern Adriatic measuring properties of the southerly inflow remains essential • There is a need for collaborative efforts within HyMeX communities to achive a better understanding of the complex processes that cause extreme events over the Adriatic region. 6th MetMed & MI5, 20-22 February 2017, Zagreb

  17. Thank you! ........and more in Ivančan-Picek, Tudor, Horvath, Stanešić, Ivatek-Šahdan, 2016: Overview of the first HyMeX special observing period over Croatia. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2657-2682. Doi: 10.5194/nhess-16-2657-2016 6th MetMed & MI5, 20-22 February 2017, Zagreb

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