1 / 49

Warning Verification Issues

Warning Verification Issues. Rick Smith Performance and Evaluation Meteorologist.

dillon
Download Presentation

Warning Verification Issues

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Warning Verification Issues Rick Smith Performance and Evaluation Meteorologist

  2. The government is extremely fond of amassing great quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays. What must be kept ever in mind, however, is that in every case, the figures are first put down by a village watchman, and he puts down anything he damn well pleases. ---Sir Josiah Stamp Warning Verification

  3. EXAMPLE • Your WFO issued the following tornado warnings for the month: Kinney County Issued 1833 Expired 1930 Uvalde County Issued 2006 Expired 2045 Medina County Issued 2050 Expired 2145 Uvalde County Blanco County Issued 2056 Expired 2200 Gillespie County Medina County Issued 2144 Expired 2230 Warning Verification

  4. New Policies to Take Effect 1/1/2002 • HOW WARNINGS WILL BE ENTERED INTO THE DATABASE • All data imported into the warning database will be taken directly from the warning • Data will not be entered into the database from any other information in the header/text of the warning Warning Verification

  5. EXAMPLE 1 WUUS53 KJAN 080100 SVRJAN MSC001-003-005-080200- BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 700 PM CST THU NOV 8 2001 Warning Verification

  6. EXAMPLE 1 WUUS53 KJAN 080100 SVRJANMSC001-003-005-080200- BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 700 PM CST THU NOV 8 2001 * UNTIL 800 PM CST Warning Verification

  7. EXAMPLE 2 WUUS53 KJAN 080100 SVRJAN MSC001-003-005-080200- BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 700 PM CST THU NOV 8 2001 Warning Verification

  8. EXAMPLE 2 WUUS53 KJAN 080100 SVRJAN MSC001-003-005-080200- BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 700 PM CST THU NOV 8 2001 Warning Verification

  9. EXAMPLE 3 WUUS53 KJAN 080100 SVRJAN MSC001-003-005-007-080200- BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 700 PM CST THU NOV 8 2001 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR COUNTY 001 COUNTY 003 COUNTY 005 Warning Verification

  10. EXAMPLE 3 WUUS53 KJAN 080100 SVRJAN MSC001-003-005-007-080200- BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 700 PM CST THU NOV 8 2001 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR COUNTY 001 COUNTY 003 COUNTY 005 Warning Verification

  11. EXAMPLE 4 WUUS53 KJAN 080100 SVRJAN MSC-001-003-005-007-080200- -- Extra dash before the county FIPS code -- Invalid warning – not added to database Warning Verification

  12. EXAMPLE 5 WUUS53 KJAN 080100 SVRJAN MSC001-003-005-007-080200- BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 700 PM THU NOV 8 2001 -- Time zone indicator is missing -- Invalid warning – not added to database Warning Verification

  13. EXAMPLE 6 WUUS53 KJAN 080100 SVRJAN MSC001-003-005-007-080200- BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 700 PM THU NOV 8 2001 * UNTIL 8000 PM CST -- Expiration time is not valid -- Invalid warning – not added to database Warning Verification

  14. EXAMPLE 7 WUUS53 KJAN 080100 SVRJAN BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 700 PM THU NOV 8 2001 -- UGC Code is missing -- Invalid warning – not added to database Warning Verification

  15. EXAMPLE 8 WUUS53 KJAN 080100 SVRJAN MSC001-03-005-007-080200- -- FIPS only has two digits -- Invalid warning – not added to database Warning Verification

  16. New Rule #2 • When there are overlapping warnings for a given county, the overlap portion of the earlier warning will be removed. • The expiration time of the first warning will be modified to be the second warning’s issuance time. Warning Verification

  17. EXAMPLE 1 • FFW Washington County 900 AM - 1100 AM • Second FFW Washington County 1030 AM - Noon |-----------------------| 900 1100 |-------------------------| 1030 Noon BECOMES… |-----------------| 900 1029 |-------------------------| 1030 Noon Warning Verification

  18. EXAMPLE 1 • FFW Washington County 900 AM - 1100 AM • Second FFW Washington County 1030 AM - Noon |-----------------------| 900 1100 An event at 1031 AM = |-------------------------| LT of 91 minutes 1030 Noon BECOMES… |-----------------| 900 1029 An event at 1031 AM = |-------------------------| LT of 1 minute 1030 Noon AND… the first warning is a FALSE ALARM! Warning Verification

  19. SRH Opposes this Change!! Warning Verification

  20. Monthly Reporting Reminders • WSH wants data by the 14th of the month (report to Kelly 15th) • If the 14th falls on a weekend or holiday, they must have data the Friday before • I need data one day before their deadline Warning Verification

  21. Basic Definitions • NUMBER OF WARNINGS ISSUED • Based on county/parish • A warning for three counties is counted as THREE county warnings • Warning extensions are separate warnings • For Example… • SVR 100-130 PM • SVR extended 129-145 PM • Warnings issued = 2 Warning Verification

  22. Basic Definitions • NUMBER OF WARNINGS VERIFIED • At least one event occurring in a warned county during the valid period of a warning results in one verified warning. • An event must occur in each county/parish warned for that county warning to verify. • For example… • FFW for White, Brown and Red counties • Events occur in White and Brown counties • NUMBER OF WARNINGS ISSUED = 3 • NUMBER OF WARNINGS VERIFIED = 2 Warning Verification

  23. Basic Definitions • AVERAGE LEAD TIME • Lead time is computed by subtracting the warning issue time from the time an event meeting reporting criteria is first reported in the county. • An event moving into a second county creates a second event. The lead time for this event is based on the time the event first entered the county. Warning Verification

  24. Average Lead Time • If one or more events occur in a county not covered by a warning, each missed events is assigned a lead time of zero. • Average lead time is computed from all lead times, including zeroes. • EXAMPLE: • Event 1 LT=12 minutes • Event 2 LT= 10 minutes • Event 3 LT = ZERO • Event 4 LT= 1 minute • Average Lead Time = 12 + 10 + 0 + 1 4 = 5.8 minutes Warning Verification

  25. Average Lead Time Average lead time is computed using all events regardless of whether there was a warning or not. If an event occurs with no warning, that event is assigned a lead time of zero. EXAMPLE: Event 1 LT=10 minutes Event 2 LT=10 minutes Event 3 LT=10 minutes Event 4 LT=0 minutes (no warning) Event 5 LT=0 minutes (no warning) Event 6 LT=0 minutes (no warning) Avg Lead Time = 10+10+10+0+0+0 6 Warning Verification

  26. Average Lead Time • There are no negative lead times. • Lead time is computed from time event begins, not from time impacts/damage occur • For example… • TOR issued at 500 PM • Tornado develops at 505 PM and moves across open country • Tornado hits city at 520 PM • LT is 5 minutes, NOT 20 minutes Warning Verification

  27. Basic Definitions • NUMBER OF EVENTS • Each event meeting warning criteria is recorded as either a warned event or a missed event. • Total Events = Missed Events + Warned Events • An event that crosses county/parish lines is counted as a separate event. Warning Verification

  28. Basic Definitions • NUMBER OF WARNED EVENTS • Each event meeting warning criteria is recorded as either a warned event or a missed event. • For a tornado to count as a warned event, it must be covered by a tornado warning. A tornado occurring in a severe thunderstorm warning does not count as a warned event. Warning Verification

  29. Basic Definitions • Warned events are a subset of all events • The number of warned events CANNOT exceed the number of events! Warning Verification

  30. Warning Verification

  31. WSOM J-02 • “After a significant hydrometeorological event occurs, the NWS must assess its performance. This effort to review capabilities and to seek improvements is one of our highest priorities.” Warning Verification

  32. Hydrometeorology Duty Officer Manual • Manual from WSH outlining reporting procedures • Updated periodically • Available at… • www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hdom/ • Username – hydromet • Password – manual Warning Verification

  33. ROML S-01-01 filed with J-02 • Details reporting procedures for field offices • All reports go to Significant Event Reporting Line 24 hours a day • 817-978-1100 Ext 197 Warning Verification

  34. What is a Significant Event? • Basically… • Any event(tornado, flood, ice storm, etc) that results in • At least ONE fatality • Five or more serious injuries requiring hospitalization • Significant structural damage • Extensive media attention Warning Verification

  35. What is a Significant Event? • Basically… • Any event that results in • At least ONE fatality • Five or more serious injuries requiring hospitalization • Significant structural damage • Extensive media attention Warning Verification

  36. Media Attention • Minor events may require report IF media coverage draws attention to it • Internet has made this more common • We will use restraint in reporting marginal events • WSH may request information, if needed Warning Verification

  37. What is a Significant Event? • We do NOT report… • Individual lightning fatalities • Heat fatalities less than five • Traffic fatalities not DIRECTLY caused by weather Warning Verification

  38. What is a Significant Event? • Also… • Aviation incidents are reported via the OAV • Marine incidents may require BOTH an OAV and an FTR memo • If marine incident occurs within range of “public-type” warning and advisory products Warning Verification

  39. Reporting Procedures • WFO calls Ext 197 • Voice mail message triggers a page to PEM • PEM retrieves message and determines the significance of the event • Is criteria for a report met? • Does event warrant notifying SRH leaders? Warning Verification

  40. Reporting the Event to WSH • If the event is significant… • Notify MetWatch Office • MetWatch staff will be paged and will respond (similar to SRH system) • They will condense our report down to a one page summary for Kelly Warning Verification

  41. Reporting the Event to WSH • MetWatch Office needs info by 7AM • Report to Kelly by 8 AM • May require a report to NOAA • May also require report to DOC, White House • They are MOST interested in… • Performance statistics • When was the warning issued? • How much lead time? Warning Verification

  42. The SIG-OPS List • FTR memos distributed via SIG-OPS • Over 130 people • RD’s, Regional MSD/HSD personnel, NOAA Public Affairs, NCEP Centers, WSH, NWS Senior Management Warning Verification

  43. Composing an FTR Memo • MEMORANDUM FOR: The Record • FROM: Richard Smith W/SR11x1 • SUBJECT: What, Where, When • Killer Tornado in Tuscaloosa, AL 12/16/00 • EVENT: Describe the event • Powerful thunderstorms spawned several tornadoes across Alabama on Saturday. One of these tornadoes caused extensive damage and killed at least seven people just south of Tuscaloosa, AL. The tornado began around 1258 PM CST. Warning Verification

  44. Composing an FTR Memo • LOCATION: where was the event? • Just South of Tuscaloosa along Highway 69. Other damage was reported in the Halls and Englewood communities. All of these communities are in Tuscaloosa County, AL • OFFICES: which offices were affected? • DEATHS: number, age, gender • INJURIES: number, age, gender • DAMAGE: extent • Extensive damage was reported with numerous homes and businesses damaged or destroyed. A mobile home park was especially hard hit, as was a new shopping center under construction. Warning Verification

  45. Composing an FTR Memo • WATCHES: type, valid time, lead time • Tornado watch #808 valid 10AM to 4PM CST. Lead time to the event – approximately 3 hours. • WARNINGS: type, valid/lead times • Tornado warning issued for Tuscaloosa County at 1240 PM CST. Lead time to the tornado was approximately 18 minutes. • SERVICE: how did we do? NOW, SVS, special actions, staffing problems, etc Warning Verification

  46. Composing an FTR Memo • SYSTEMS: any problems, highlight significant benefits • RESPONSE: local actions, media coverage, etc • DISCLAIMER: • Any times listed pertaining to event occurrences and lead times associated with outlooks, watches and warnings are based on the best information available at the time this preliminary report was prepared. Subsequently, these data may be changed as time permits a more thorough investigation of the circumstances surrounding the event. Warning Verification

  47. Tips on Writing the FTR • Lead Times • To the BEGINNING OF THE EVENT, not the deaths, injuries, etc Subject: Tornado in Texas Author: Kenneth Graham at W-SR-SRH Date: 5/12/99 8:01 AM Attached is information concerning injuries associated with a tornado in Mason County Texas yesterday evening “Tornado warnings issued for Mason County at 608 PM valid until 655 PM. Tornado warning was re-issued for this slow moving supercell at 650 PM valid until 755 PM. Time of injuries estimated at 655 PM.” Subject: Re: Tornado in Texas Date: Wed, 12 May 1999 10:57:00 From: "Jack Kelly“ To: "Kenneth Graham" Thanks; however, when did the tornado occur? From Geneva, Switzerland! Warning Verification

  48. Tips on Writing the FTR • Highlight accomplishments of the WFO • Hazardous Weather Outlooks, not SPC outlooks Warning Verification

  49. To Summarize… • Significant Event Reports are important, but can tax resources during active weather periods • Routine events can be handled by 1-2 people • Big events will require a team effort to get the job done Warning Verification

More Related