From models to decisions
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From Models to Decisions. Amir Hakami Carleton University. Where do models fit?. Emissions are the only variable we can control. Use models to provide Policymakers with tangible “decision metrics”. Meteorology. Transport and Transformation. Pollution. Emissions. Health Influences.

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From Models to Decisions

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From models to decisions

From Models to Decisions

Amir Hakami

Carleton University


Where do models fit

Where do models fit?

  • Emissions are the only variable we can control.

    • Use models to provide Policymakers with tangible “decision metrics”.

Meteorology

Transport and Transformation

Pollution

Emissions

Health Influences

Health Outcome

Exposure


Improving air quality

Improving air quality

  • Reducing emissions is costly.

  • Assessing the benefits of emission reductions in terms that are comparable with costs (i.e., monetized) enhances the decision-making process.

  • What is the cost of action vs. inaction?


Benefit from one average vehicle

Benefit from one average vehicle

  • Value for Toronto and coastal California: $400-$800/yr

  • Estimated benefit from the Toronto subway: $130,000,000/yr

  • NB: A fraction of benefits (non-fatal, long-term, or PM effects not included)

Pappin and Hakami, 2013


Health benefits marginal benefit damage

Health benefits: marginal benefit/damage

Mobile sources

Point sources

  • What the numbers mean?

    • Marginal benefits are key decision parameters.


Health benefits are substantial

Health benefits are substantial

Abatement costs

Health damage

Marginal benefits and costs of NOx emission reductions from power plants in the US.

Mesbah et al., 2013


B onus increasing benefits with controls

Bonus: increasing benefits with controls!

Mobile Sources

Point Sources


Next steps for air quality scientists

Next steps for air quality scientists

  • Facilitate integrated assessment.

    • Enhance our communication skills with other disciplines.

  • Quantify/reduce various uncertainties in our understanding of processes that affect air quality.

    • Uncertainty is not a justified reason for inaction.


Next steps for air quality scientists ii

Next steps for air quality scientists - II

Decision model

Air quality model

McRae and Cass (1981)


Next steps for air quality scientists iii

Next steps for air quality scientists - III

Decision model

Air quality model


Comments questions

Comments/questions

Thank you!

Funding provided by NSERC, CIHR, Environment Canada, Health Canada


Rate of change in marginal damage

Rate of change in marginal damage

$

Marginal cost

Marginal damage

Emission level

New optimal level


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