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Population Projections and Redistricting in Texas

This presentation provides population projections and information on how redistricting in Texas is informed by census data. It includes projected population changes, ideal house district size, and demographic shifts in Texas and the San Antonio metro area.

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Population Projections and Redistricting in Texas

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  1. Population Projections to Inform Redistricting in Texas • House Redistricting Committee • San Antonio, TX • September 12, 2019 @TexasDemography

  2. These slides are posted on our website: • demographics.texas.gov/presentations

  3. CENSUS 2020 Every ten years, the country conducts a census to count every person in the United States. The next count will take place April 1, 2020. Census counts used to reapportion the U.S. House of Representatives, determining how many seats each state gets. Census counts also used to determine the number of electoral college votes a state gets. Census counts used by state officials to redrawcongressional and state legislative boundaries to account for population shifts.

  4. Population Growth and Projected Congressional Seats of Select States Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2018 Population Estimates; Brennan Center for Justice.

  5. Linear Forecast of Census Bureau Population Estimates 2010-2018 and TDC Population Projections Ideal House District Size = 197,384 to 197,851 Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections; linear forecast derived by the Texas Demographic Center from Census Bureau Population Estimates

  6. 2010 Population and Projected 2020 Population, Texas Counties 2010 2020 Source: Texas Demographic Center, Population Projections, 2010-2015 Migration Scenario, Vintage 2018

  7. 2010 Population and Projected 2020 Population, San Antonio Metro Area Counties 2010 2020 Source: Texas Demographic Center, Population Projections, 2010-2015 Migration Scenario, Vintage 2018

  8. Projected Numeric Change, Texas Counties and San Antonio Metro Area, 2010-2020 Source: Texas Demographic Center, Population Projections, 2010-2015 Migration Scenario, Vintage 2018

  9. Projected Percent Change of the Total Population, Texas Counties and San Antonio Metro Area, 2010 to 2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates

  10. Population and Projected Population Change, San Antonio Metro Counties, 2010-2020 Source: Texas Demographic Center, Population Projections, 2010-2015 Migration Scenario, Vintage 2018

  11. Projected Population, 2010-2020, Texas Ideal House District Size = 197,851 Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 and 2018 Population Projections

  12. Projected Population by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010-2020 Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections

  13. Projected Population Change and Percent of Total Projected Change by Race/Ethnicity, 2010-2020, Texas Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections

  14. Population Projections, Bexar, Comal, and Guadalupe Counties, 2010-2020 Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections

  15. Population Projections, San Antonio Metro Counties with 2010 Populations Less than 50,000 Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections

  16. Percent of Total Projected Population Change by Race/Ethnicity for San Antonio Metro Counties Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections

  17. Redistricting Dates • Apportionment File sent to POTUS on 12/31/2020 • Redistricting Data File (Public Law 94-171 File) received by the Governor no later than April 1, 2021 • PL 94-171 released to states in groups of 8 states per week, with one week prior notice • PL 94-171 File to include: • Race, • Race for population 18 and older, • Race and Hispanic origin, • Race and Hispanic origin for population 18 and older, • Occupancy Status • Group Quarters (GQ) Population by GQ Type • Data available at WWW.CENSUS.GOV/RDO

  18. Lloyd B. Potter, Ph.D. (210) 458-6530 Lloyd.Potter@utsa.edu demographics.texas.gov @TexasDemography

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