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Richard Yamarone Director of Economic Research Argus Research Corp.

“What We’re Watching to Identify the Economic Recovery”. June 3, 2009. Richard Yamarone Director of Economic Research Argus Research Corp. Hoping for a “V”-Shaped Recovery. Leading Indicators Signal Some Degree of Recovery. The Most Convincing Argument of Recovery.

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Richard Yamarone Director of Economic Research Argus Research Corp.

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  1. “What We’re Watching to Identify the Economic Recovery” June 3, 2009 Richard Yamarone Director of Economic Research Argus Research Corp.

  2. Hoping for a “V”-Shaped Recovery

  3. Leading Indicators Signal Some Degree of Recovery

  4. The Most Convincing Argument of Recovery

  5. Fed Indices Point to More Prosperous Times

  6. A-D-S Business Conditions Index Improving Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

  7. Anecdotal Reports Starting to Improve

  8. Fiscal Policy Arriving at the Spigots

  9. Monetary Policy… Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

  10. Business Investment has Collapsed

  11. Little Reason for Hope in New Orders Data

  12. Key Index Implying Strong Recovery

  13. Little Need to Build With Glut of Commercial Property

  14. Signs of Stabilization

  15. Home Prices Returning to Pre-Bubble Levels

  16. Encouraging Signs in the Housing/Construction Market

  17. “Stimulus” May Help Ailing Construction Sector

  18. Trade, the Unsexy Savior

  19. Some Recovery in Container Traffic

  20. Some Signs of Peak in Unemployment

  21. Unemployment Benefit Claims Point to Economic Trough

  22. Ever-Resilient Consumer Tossed in Towel

  23. ‘Fab Five’ – Dining Out

  24. ‘Fab Five’ – Jewelry & Watches

  25. ‘Fab Five’ – Cosmetics & Perfumes

  26. ‘Fab Five’ – Women’s Dresses

  27. ‘Fab Five’ – Casino Gambling

  28. ‘Fab Five’ Recovery…

  29. Bad Signs for Summer Spending

  30. Auto Industry is the Wildcard

  31. America Still Loves Those Trucks

  32. Prices Aren’t ‘Collapsing’

  33. Market Inflation Expectations Rising

  34. Consumer Inflation Expectations on the Rise

  35. Broad Inflation Measures Still Elevated

  36. No ‘Deflation’ in this Respected Measure

  37. Inflation Pressures Appear to be ‘Well-Anchored’… For Now

  38. Monetary Policy Getting Easier Every Month

  39. Internal Fed Gauge Implies Fed to Remain on ‘Hold’

  40. Risks to “V”-Shaped Recovery… • Auto Industry Collapse • Commodity (Food), Energy, Healthcare Inflation • (price pass alongs announced during the quarterly earning season) • Stimulus Fails to Generate Jobs • Consumers Decide to Save • Jobs Climate Deteriorates Further

  41. Reasons for Optimism… • Massive Monetary Stimulus in Pipeline • Large Stimulus of Falling Energy Prices • Government Has Approved Whopping Fiscal Spending Program • Home Prices Have Returned to Pre-Bubble Levels • Frozen Credit Markets Have Thawed Considerably

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