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Setting the Scene for Change

Setting the Scene for Change. Richard Murray Office of the Chief Economic Adviser. Synchronised Global Downturn. Scale of the Recession in Scotland. Fiscal Impact of Recession. Government borrowing. Expenditure. Revenue. Sharp Rise in UK Borrowing. Type of Borrowing.

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Setting the Scene for Change

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  1. Setting the Scene for Change Richard Murray Office of the Chief Economic Adviser

  2. Synchronised Global Downturn

  3. Scale of the Recession in Scotland

  4. Fiscal Impact of Recession Government borrowing Expenditure Revenue

  5. Sharp Rise in UK Borrowing

  6. Type of Borrowing

  7. UK Government’s Fiscal Mandate

  8. Total Scottish Government Budget Approximately half the cuts to occur next year

  9. Long-Term Budgetary Impact Scottish Government DEL Expenditure (2010-11 prices) 2009-10 2025-26 16 years £39 billion

  10. Stage of the Recovery

  11. Unemployment Remains High

  12. Gradual Recovery in Scottish GDP

  13. Significant Risks Remain • Impact of the fiscal consolidation • Rising inflationary pressures • Sovereign debt concerns in Euro Area

  14. Concluding Thoughts • Scottish economy in early stages of recovery • Effects of the recession still being felt • Significant uncertainty remains over strength of the recovery • Impact on the public finances over the medium to long term

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