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Theory of Change and Logic Models

Theory of Change and Logic Models. Set Up Directions… (10 minutes). Sit with your team Share one fun thing you did this weekend Share your draft Change Initiative Goal Statements with each other. REVIEW: Setting Standards for Acceptable Performance. Specifies how good is good enough

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Theory of Change and Logic Models

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  1. Theory of Change and Logic Models

  2. Set Up Directions… (10 minutes) • Sit with your team • Share one fun thing you did this weekend • Share your draft Change Initiative Goal Statements with each other

  3. REVIEW: Setting Standards for Acceptable Performance • Specifies how good is good enough • Specifies “success” in advance—Begin with the end in mind • Provides a benchmark/baseline for comparison before and after staff development

  4. OUTCOMES VS. IMPACTS OUTCOMES: • Immediate outcomes (or Effects) directly attributable to the program IMPACTS: • The long-term effect—what happens 10 to 15 years down the road

  5. REVIEW: SMART Goals • Specific change • Measurable change • Attainable, realistic outcome • Relevant • Timebound —Garmston, JSD, Summer 1997, pp. 64-65

  6. Sample Standards for Success • Increased student achievement • 8% increase in students in advanced or proficient categories on statewide assessment of mathematics • 7% increase in students in the advanced category and 20% fewer students in the not-proficient category on statewide assessment of reading • 25% more underrepresented students in the proficient category on statewide assessment of reading

  7. Ask yourself this question… Is it reasonable to expect that your intervention will have the expected impact? (i.e., 1:1 Laptops & Student Achievement)

  8. Goal Statement Activity

  9. SMART Goals… next steps: • End Goals: Define the outcome of the program • Means Goals: Define the process through which the end goals will be achieved.

  10. Results What results occur from professional learning for individuals, schools, communities …

  11. Types of Change • Knowledge • Attitude • Skill • Aspiration • Behavior IN THE BOOK Page 38

  12. KASAB IN THE BOOK Page 38

  13. Theory of Change • Identifies the components/actions of a program (what the program does) • Specifies the relationship among the components to explain how the change occurs (sequence of actions) • Delineates the underlying assumptions upon which the program is based IN THE BOOK Pages 40-46

  14. Theory of Change • A good theory of change is: • Plausible • Doable • Testable • Meaningful IN THE BOOK Pages 40-46

  15. Teachers participate in collaborative learning experiences. Teachers implement new learning in their instruction. Student performance increases.

  16. Organization Central Office Principals Coaches Teachers Students Layering Theories of Change for Systemic Reform

  17. Possible Theories of Change OR… K + S B + Att + Asp Asp + Att K B

  18. Activity • As a group, create 3 theories of change… make each different in terms of the changes and the order of the change. • For each theory of change you create, identify its underlying assumptions. • For each theory of change, also identify the potential implications for key decisions about professional development.

  19. Logic Models

  20. Logic Models A diagram of the theory of how a program is supposed to work A graphic depiction of relationships between activities and results

  21. What does a logic model look like? • Graphic display of boxes and arrows; vertical or horizontal • Relationships, linkages • Any shape possible • Circular, dynamic • Cultural adaptations; storyboards • Level of detail • Simple • Complex • Multiple models

  22. A simple logic model This graphic representation shows the logical relationships between: * The resources that go into a program. * The activities the program undertakes. * The changes or benefits that result. The logic model describes the sequence of events thought to bring about benefits or change over time. It portrays the chain of reasoning, that links investments to results.

  23. INPUTS: Staff resources, school resources, curriculum activity development, assistive and instructional technology, computers, data system development OUTPUTS: Staff training, computer installation and maintanance, implement instructional and assistive technologies with curriculum activities, record data on student achievement and behavior, collect information on school change OUTCOMES: Technology is being used, appropriate student behavior for learning, school spirit and collaboration increases, student achievement rises, retain staff over long term

  24. Situation: Stating the Problem The situation is the foundation for logic model development. The problem or issue that the program is to address sits within a setting or situation--a complex of sociopolitical, environmental, and economic conditions. If you incorrectly understand the situation and misdiagnose the problem, everything that follows is likely to be wrong. Take time to understand the situation and carefully define the problem. This may be the most important step. As you do so, consider the following questions: 1. What is the problem/issue? 2. Why is this a problem? (What causes the problem?) 3. For whom (individual, household, group, community, society in general) does this problem exist? 4. Who has a stake in the problem? (Who cares whether it is resolved or not?) 5. What do we know about the problem/issue/people that are involved? What research, experience do we have? What do existing research and experience say?

  25. Embedded Assumptions Among other things, we are assuming that * the resources are adequate and available, * a culturally appropriate curriculum can be developed and delivered effectively, * targeted parents are willing and able to attend, * and that knowledge change leads to behavior change.

  26. External Factors The environment in which the program exists includes a variety of external factors that can influence the program's success. External factors include the cultural milieu, the climate, economic structure, housing patterns, demographic patterns, political environment, background and experiences of program participants, media influence, changing policies and priorities. These external factors may have a major influence on the achievement of outcomes. We can't ignore them! They may affect a variety of things including the following: # Program implementation # Participants and recipients # The speed and degree to which change occurs # Staffing patterns and resources available These factors interact with the program. They not only influence the initiative but are influenced by the initiative. A program does not sit in isolation - somehow "outside" or "apart" from its surrounding environment. A program is affected by and affects these external factors.

  27. Tamara Otto Research and Evaluation Center for Technology in Education tamaraotto@jhu.edu

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