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ERCOT LTSA

ERCOT LTSA. RPG 10/17/08. Introduction. Objective Year of study General procedure Transmission reliability Economic analysis Assumptions. Reliability Study Model Development. Vintage Load Summer peak 90-10 forecast (83,500MW; 9,200MW flat) Growth rates

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ERCOT LTSA

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  1. ERCOT LTSA RPG 10/17/08

  2. Introduction • Objective • Year of study • General procedure • Transmission reliability • Economic analysis • Assumptions

  3. Reliability Study Model Development • Vintage • Load • Summer peak • 90-10 forecast (83,500MW; 9,200MW flat) • Growth rates • Future transmission and generation projects • Planned generation with I.A. as at July 31, 2008

  4. Reliability Study Approach • Sub-area/Region-based • North East • Houston • South Central • Valley • Transmission network reliability • Applicable generation • Bulk power needs

  5. Sub-area details • Northeast sub-area • Major load centers: DFW metro; IH-20, IH-35, IH-45 corridors, Brazos county • 31,600MW load • Generation resources (33,000MW) • 10,400MW coal, 800MW wind, 130MW hydro, Comanche nuclear plants (2,350MW), Kiamichi, 600MW DC tie. • Key future projects • CREZ: West Krum – Anna, Willow Creek – Hicks, Navarro – Central C, Sam Switch – Central C, etc. • Lufkin – Nacogdoches 345kV line. • Bosque Power Expansion, Oak Grove.

  6. Sub-area details

  7. Sub-area details • Houston sub-area • Major load centers: Houston metro, Galveston, Freeport. • 18,450MW load • 18,750MW generation • 2,500MW coal, 0 wind, 0 hydro • Key future projects • Rothwood • Zenith • Kuykendahl • Cedar Bayou 4

  8. Sub-area details

  9. Sub-area details • South-Central sub-area • 7,200MW load • 9,500MW generation • 6,000MW coal, 250MW hydro • Key future projects • Salado – Clear Springs double ckt 345kV • CREZ: Kendall – Gillespie - Newton • Sandow 5

  10. Sub-area details

  11. Sub-area details • Valley sub-area • Major load centers: Corpus Christi, Laredo, Brownsville-McAllen • 5,350MW [6,600MW] load • 5,775MW [11,050MW] generation • 4,200MW gas; 550MW wind, 100MW hydro, [STP nuclear] • Key future projects • Miguel – Lobo 345kV • Nueces Bay #7 re-powering

  12. Sub-area details

  13. Sub-area details • Western ERCOT sub-area • Major load centers: Abilene, Odessa, Wichita Falls. • 4,100 MW load • 13,700MW generation • 220MW DC tie, 4,500MW gas; 630MW coal • Key future projects • CREZ transmission only • Reactive compensation

  14. Reliability Criteria - Voltage

  15. Reliability Analysis • AC contingency-based • Generation dispatches (age, size, location, influence, DC ties, VFT) • Outages/unavailability • Age; size; location. • Problem categories • Wide area bulk power transfer • Local area regional problems • No assessment of adequacy (LOLE, location, type) of available generation

  16. Reliability Analysis • Dispatch scenarios • Generation deficient area • 10% unavailability to assess import sensitivity • Generation surplus area • 10% unavailability modeled using target gens • Hydro and wind resources not included • Monitor interface loading and voltage sensitivity

  17. Reliability Findings • Northeast sub-area

  18. Reliability Findings • Houston sub-area

  19. Reliability Findings • South-central sub-area

  20. Reliability Findings • Valley sub-area

  21. Reliability Findings • Western ERCOT sub-area • No analysis performed. CREZ analysis deemed adequate until further clarity is established.

  22. Next Steps • Align findings with results from economic analysis • Discuss fixes with Transmission Owners to develop solution alternatives

  23. Economic analysis • The economic viability of different projects are being evaluated using a base case and several change cases: • High load case • High natural gas price case ($11/MMBtu) • Two cases for different levels of expansion/construction of new nuclear plants • High wind case (in excess of CREZ scenario 2 wind) • New technologies (solar, energy storage, plug-in hybrids) • Carbon tax

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