The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate risk

1. The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate risk Climate Adaptation Flagship Philip Kokic Research Scientist, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems with Steven Crimp, Rohan Nelson, Mark Howden, Peter Brown & other colleagues

2. Overview Australia’s exposure to climate risk The rural livelihoods framework Adaptive capacity measures for rural communities Sample surveys used to construct an adaptive capacity index Vulnerability assessment

3. The climate is variable & changing Rainfall variability Trend in total rainfall Source: BoM

4. Australian temperatures • 1975-2009 • +0.24oC/decade • Marked acceleration in Australian warming trend. • 1910-2009 +0.12oC/decade • 1957-2009 • +0.20oC/decade Source: CBoM

5. Southern hemisphere – high pressure, spring Trend in anti-cyclone density, 1970-2008 Lo et al., 2007. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 3506-3520.

6. Southern hemisphere – high pressure, spring

7. The science – policy interface • Narrow disciplinary and institutional perspectives have provided few practical options for policymakers dealing with the complex and interacting goals of adaptation • climate-centric not human-centric • identifies the problem but not solutions • pressure to reduce policy goals to fit the scientific methods and agendas • Significant blockage in science-policy interface

8. Outcomes Livelihood platform Access modified by In the context of Resulting in Composed of With effects on Human Natural Resource based activities Social relations Livelihood security Social Trends Livelihood strategies Natural Institutions Environ’l sustainability Shocks Physical non -NR based activities Organisations Financial H’hold capacity Rural livelihoods context Attributes of management practices Aspirations The rural livelihoods conceptual framework …Source: Ellis (2000)

9. The Australian farm survey Survey regions Survey ~ 2000 farms annually Broadacre and dairy industries only Stratified rotating random sample GREG estimates based on Agricultural census benchmarks Basic collection Physical Production Financial Supplementary surveys Human and social aspects Sampled farms 2004-05 Source: ABARE

10. Measuring adaptive capacity Human capital Operator and spouse education level,health status Social capital Landcare member, number of business partners, internet use Natural capital Pasture growth index,dams per hectare,remnant vegetation Physical capital Plant and machinery, structures, livestock Financial capital Capital value, total income, access to finance Source of data: Australian farm survey, ABS survey, Natural resource surveys

11. Adaptive Capacity Index Human Social Natural Physical Financial Result using PCA loadings Using equal weights Pv1 Pv2 Sv3 Sv1 Sv2 Hv1 Hv2 Hv3 Nv1 Nv2 Nv3 Nv4 Fv1 Fv2 Fv3 Constructing the adaptive capacity measure

12. Financial Human Social Adaptive Capacity Natural Physical (Nelson et al. 2010)

13. Vulnerability to income risk Exposure to income risk High Medium Low Adaptive capacity Low High High Moderate Medium High Moderate Low High Moderate Low Low Integrated vulnerability assessment

14. The vulnerability of rural communities To pasture growth variability To farm income variability No data Least vulnerable Moderately vulnerable Most vulnerable

15. Summary Rural communities have adapted and flourished in extreme climate risk Evaluating risk solely on biophysical measures is misleading Adaptation measures are policy relevant Sample survey techniques can be used to measure and construct an adaptive capacity index Vulnerability needs to be assessed against all sources of risk.

16. Thank you CMIS Environmetrics Dr. Philip Kokic Senior Research Scientist Phone: +61 2 6242 1735 Email: philip.kokic@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au/cmis Contact Us Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176 Email: enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au