1 / 56

A Tale of Two Regions in China - Impact of Demography on Social Security

A Tale of Two Regions in China - Impact of Demography on Social Security. A speech at Conference on Chinese Healthy Aging and Socioeconomics: International Perspectives, August 20 – 21 by Michael Sze, PhD, FSA, CFA. Agenda. Worldwide perspective Fundamental theory of social security

dante
Download Presentation

A Tale of Two Regions in China - Impact of Demography on Social Security

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. A Tale of Two Regions in China - Impact of Demography on Social Security A speech at Conference on Chinese Healthy Aging and Socioeconomics: International Perspectives, August 20 – 21 by Michael Sze, PhD, FSA, CFA

  2. Agenda • Worldwide perspective • Fundamental theory of social security • Pension reforms in various countries • Some older economies • Some younger economies • Some Asian economies • Situation in Hong Kong • Mandatory Provident Fund • Ultimate solution for Hong Kong • Situation in Xinjiang • Aging demography • Income disparity • Possible solutions?

  3. Basic Demographic Effect Pension Cost as % of GDP Source: OECD Aging Populations: The Social Policy Implications. Paris, 1988.

  4. Source: Estelle James: The European Pension Crisis

  5. Source: Estelle James: The European Pension Crisis

  6. Source: Estelle James: The European Pension Crisis

  7. Source: Chris Daykin – Speech at IAA meeting

  8. Source: Chris Daykin – Speech at IAA meeting

  9. Fundamentals of Social Security • Let B be average pension benefit per retiree R be number of retirees • Total pension payment = R x B • Total output = W x P, where W is number of workers, and P is productivity • Output not consumed by workers is used to pay retiree pensions: W P (S + T), where • S is saving rate, and T is tax rate RB = W P(S + T)

  10. Social Security Formula RB = W P(S + T) R / W = P (S + T) / B Ln R – Ln W = Ln P + Ln (S + T) – Ln B Taking partial derivative with respect to time r’ – w’ = p’ + (s + t)’ – b’ where each term denotes % rate of increase of the term

  11. Comments on Social Security Formula • Left side is completely dependent on demographic changes • To keep the equation in balance, we must narrow down the gap between retiree increase and worker increase • Most effective way is to increase retirement age according to life expectancy increase

  12. Comments on Social Security Formula (Continued) • Right side depends on economic increase vs. benefit increase • There is no solution to social security problems without economic expansion • Social security is part of the economy • A healthy national economy is essential

  13. Implication on Pension Reforms • Technical formula is independent of • DB or DC method • Full funding or PAYGO • Some fallacies in reform policy • Moving from PAYGO to full funding will not save social security • Moving from public to private funded pensions cannot avoid tax increase • Difference between DB and DC plans: easier detection of trouble in DB plans

  14. Some Social Security Reforms • US not been able to agree on any reform • Canada’s tax increase and benefit cut in 1999 found inadequate in subsequent years • Italy’s proposal in 2002 to increase RA to 65 by 2008 failed after general strike by 25% of workers • France’s proposal to increasing RA gradually from 60 to 65 resulted in strike by over 2 million workers in April, 2003 • Germany’s encouragement to workers to take out private pensions or company options found not adequate (2001) • UK: Modest minimum benefit funded by public PAYGO plan, plus private savings found to provide inadequate pensions, leading to wide spread protests

  15. Other Social Security Reforms • Japan DB reform: increasing RA gradually from 60 to 65 • Singapore Central Provident Fund contribution • 20% from employee, 16% from employer • Combined contribution rate recently decreased to 33% • Used for housing, education, medical care, retirement • Malaysia Employee Provident Fund contribution • 9% from employee, 12% from employer • Hong Kong implemented Mandatory Provident Fund in 2000 • 5% mandatory employee contribution, with equal match from employer (to be discussed in following slides)

  16. Hong Kong Population Source: Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong

  17. Source: Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong

  18. Source: Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong

  19. Dependency Ratios

  20. Annual Rates of Increase

  21. Implications of Demographic Changes for Hong Kong • Continual decline in mortality rates • Life expectancy from birth: 78.2 for males and 84.1 for female in 2001; 82.3/87.8 in 2031 • Dependency ratio increases from 22% in 2002 to 54% in 2031 • Two workers must carry one retiree • % rate of retiree increase exceeds that of worker by 4-5%. Possible remedy includes • Productivity increase: not easy • Benefit decline: not desirable • Savings and tax rate increases: only choice

  22. Brief Description of Mandatory Provident Fund of Hong Kong • Implemented in 2000 to cover workers aged between 18 and 65 • High compliance rate, as of 12/31/2003 • 95.4% of employers • 96.3% of relevant employees • 81.5% of self employed • Contribution Rate • 5% pay from employer and employee each • Employees with monthly pay < HK$5,000 may opt-out

  23. Description of MPF (Continued) • Tax deductible contributions • Employee: 5% pay, up to $1,000/month • Employer: 5% pay • Investment options: flexible for employee • Investment income: not taxable • Retirement age: flexible • Retirement benefit: lump sum of individual accumulated fund, with no tax

  24. Test Effectiveness of MPF • Stochastic simulation program constructed to test the effectiveness of MPF • Analysis of impact on retirement income as % of pay due to various strategies on • Contribution rate • Retirement age • Entry age • Investment • Retirement income % is called Pay Replacement Ratio (PRR)

  25. Projection Parameters for Base Case Study

  26. Investment Strategies

  27. Data Source

  28. Source: Results of author’s stochastic simulation

  29. Source: Results of author’s stochastic simulation

  30. Concluding Remarks on Hong Kong • Need for assurance varies with individuals • The higher the assurance, the higher the contribution rate • For older employees without sizeable savings, retirement income is grossly inadequate • For these employees, a contribution rate of over 30% is required to produce decent retirement income at age 60 • Better if they retire at 65 • Severe transition issue must be addressed

  31. Concluding Remarks for Hong Kong (continued) For young employees: • 10% contribution is inadequate • It takes over 15% contribution to produce reasonable retirement income • For early retirement, say at 55, more than 25% contribution may be needed • Starting at 45 instead of 30, 5% more contribution is bu 5% less • Current investment strategy is quite optimal

  32. Source: 2000 Population Census of People’s Republic of China

  33. About Chinese Demography • Mid segment of population is broad • Current working population is sizeable • When this segment retires, there will be much pressure on country’s finance • Population at lower ages is smaller • May cause increasing dependency ratio problem • We should consider different dichotomy of the population

  34. 2000 Chinese Population Source: 2000 Population Census of People’s Republic of China

  35. Dichotomy of Chinese Population • Consider percentage of population at younger ages • Percentage for Urban population much smaller than that for rural population • Old age crisis more imminent in cities • Fewer young people among Han population than in minorities • Old age crisis more imminent among Han population

  36. Social Security for China • Wide differences among provinces • Geographical • Economical • Many differences between cities and rural areas • Xinjiang is an example • Begin with study of economic factors

  37. Basic Statistics of Xinjiang 2003

  38. Source: Xinjiang Lingdao Ganbu Shouce 2004

  39. Source: Xinjiang Lingdao Ganbu Shouce 2004

  40. Source: Xinjiang Lingdao Ganbu Shouce 2004

  41. Souce: Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook 2003

  42. Source: Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook 2003

  43. Urban Population of Xinjiang Source: Results of author’s population modeling

  44. Rural Population of Xinjiang Source: Results of author’s population modeling

  45. Urban Lower fertility Decreasing mortality Rapidly aging population Dependency ratio increases to 38.5% by 2030 Rural area Higher fertility Decreasing mortality Migration to Urban increases aging Dependency ratio increases at slower rate to 32.7% by 2030 Demographic Trend in Xinjiang

  46. Source: Results of author’s population modeling

  47. Additional Problems for Xinjiang • Water scarcity • Limited amount of surface water, • Only 60% available for cultivation • Only 8% of underground water has been developed • Expanding desert: • Covering 42.4% of province • Scarcity of forest, further depleted by • Unplanned expansion of cultivated land, • Over grazing • 20% of good farm land destroyed since 1980

More Related