1 / 18

GHG projections of Romania-How much is available? April 30 Bucharest, Romania

GHG projections of Romania-How much is available? April 30 Bucharest, Romania. Gamze Celikyilmaz-Aydemir Climate Change Department The Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe. GHG Emission Trends and Projections in Europe in 2008. In cooperation with ETC-EEA

Download Presentation

GHG projections of Romania-How much is available? April 30 Bucharest, Romania

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. GHG projections of Romania-How much is available?April 30Bucharest, Romania Gamze Celikyilmaz-Aydemir Climate Change Department The Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe

  2. GHG Emission Trends and Projections in Europe in 2008 • In cooperation with ETC-EEA • Covering all the European countries • Web page: http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_5

  3. OUTLINE • Base year GHG emissions and Kyoto target • GHG Emission trends by sector • GHG Projections • Available AAUs for carbon market for the first commitment period. • Conclusions

  4. Base year GHG Emissions and Kyoto target • Kyoto base year is 1989 for all gases • Initial Report………281.895 Mt CO2 eq • Expert review……..278.225 Mt CO2 eq • Kyoto Target: -8% by 2012 278.225 x 92% = 255.967 Mt CO2 eq

  5. GHG EMISSION TRENDS BY SECTOR

  6. Source: Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2007

  7. Difference in base year emissions2005 vs. 2006 Source: Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2007

  8. GHG by sectors in 2004 • fossil fuels combustion • domestic energy sources as lignite and hard coal • Fuel switch and increased EE. • methane emissions from agriculture and waste sectors possible. Source: Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2007

  9. GHG PROJECTIONS

  10. WEM and WAM projections for 2010 • 31.6 % and 35.3 % less then base year Source: European Environmental Agency, 2008

  11. Projections for 2015 and 2020 based on WAM • Kyoto compliance even in 2020 • But GHG emissions further accelerating Source: European Energy Agency, 2008

  12. GIS in Romania

  13. Why GIS in Romania? • A strongdecline in the GHG emissions and has a possible big surplus in Romania • Advantage of GIS: • Optional instrument to secure the environmental benefits of the sales of AAUs • flexibility in project eligibility and approval • flexibility in designing financial mechanisms for project support.

  14. How much AAUs can be sold? • AA2008-2012 = 1,299,349,047 tCO2-eq. • Commitment Period Reserve (most recent inventory bases) 5 x GHG emissions in 2004 =800,298,657 tCO2-eq • Remaining AAUs 1,299,349,047 - 800,298,657 =499,050,390 tCO2-eq.

  15. Why to be careful with AAUs? • Energy sector increase since 1999 • Increase in the investments since 2004 (EU membership) • global economic crisis is TEMPORARY • Energy and agriculture sectors are projected to increase GHG emission for the 2010-2020 • GHG emmission calculation models to be improved • Projection models to be improved

  16. Why to be careful with AAUs? • New methodologies/models are implemented • Projection calculations to be revised based on new emission calculation & projection models • Overselling the AAUs may jeopardize the compliance with Kyoto targets

  17. Summary and Conclusion • WEM will be enough for 2012 commitment • Projected emissions for 2015 and 2020 will remain still very much below the Kyoto target. • A high potential of further GHG reduction • High potential for GIS projects • However, there is a potential of accelerated increase of emissions • Changes in the models and methodologies for projections should be taken into account • Compliance to Kyoto targets should be the priority

  18. Thank you Gamze Celikyilmaz-Aydemir Climate Change Department Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe gamze@rec.org www.rec.org

More Related