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TRANSPORT – MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION

TRANSPORT – MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION. Tamás Fleischer Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences http://www.vki.hu/~tfleisch/ tfleisch@vki.hu.

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TRANSPORT – MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION

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  1. TRANSPORT – MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION Tamás Fleischer Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences http://www.vki.hu/~tfleisch/ tfleisch@vki.hu Climate Change 2007: Implications for Hungary AR4 – key insights – an IPCC Outreach EventCentral European University, Budapest, April 10-11, 2008

  2. Transport – mitigation and adaptation • Mitigation: decreasing the emissions (decreasingthe driving forces of the climate change). It suppose known reasons, known relations, known target • Adaptation: • posterior adaptation: reaction to changes already happened • preventive adaptation: to improve capability of resistance / of survival of future changes • flexibility, buffers, reserves, redundancies, diversity, • Characteristics that are not „efficient” or „uniform” or „optimal” etc. • („Post-modern” versus „modern” values)

  3. Mitigation and adaptation Source: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. IPCC TAR Vol II. indirect source: Smit et al 1999. Mitigation and adaptation as policy answers

  4. Usual (also IPCC) mitigation approach • The myth of the negative feedback loopExpectation: the more technology, the less emission / CC • Experience: the more technology – increasing emission • Behaves rather like a positive feedback loop (transport) sector emissions technology

  5. Usual (also IPCC) mitigation approach • „Fuel economy regulations have been effective in slowing thegrowth of GHG emissions, but so far growth of transport activityhas overwhelmed their impact.” (AR4) • What happened? • Misleading message to the user: „technology can solve the problem, you don’t have to change anything” • Transport: target: to gain time => higher speed => no time gain, but bigger distance covered => (+higher emission) • The cumulated social result differs from the direct one

  6. IPCC mitigation approach • The non-technical solutions • From the point of view of the sector: this is a change of the external conditions – that is an adaptation enforcement, not „mitigation” (transport) sector emissions regulations, prices,emissions trade etc.

  7. IPCC mitigation approach • The non-technical solutions • From the point of view of the sector: this is a change of the external conditions – that is an adaptation enforcement, not „mitigation” (Adaptation to new regulatory environment) (transport) sector (transport) sector emissions regulations, prices,emissions trade etc.

  8. IPCC mitigation approach • The non-technical solutions • From the point of view of the sector: this is a change of the external conditions – that is an adaptation enforcement, not „mitigation” (Adaptation to new regulatory environment) • How to make the feedback even more back to policy level? (transport) sector (transport) sector emissions regulations, prices,emissions trade etc.

  9. IPCC four basic storylines or scenario families

  10. IPCC scenarios 1 • 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A B 2

  11. IPCC scenarios Global, converged, connected world 1 • 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A B Local, fragmented, regional world 2

  12. IPCC scenarios Global, converged, connected world 1 • 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) Economic priority, efficiency, market based world, competition Environment, equity, participative decisions,co-operation A B Local, fragmented, regional world 2

  13. IPCC scenarios 1 global • 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A market B co-operation 2 regional

  14. IPCC scenarios 1 A1 ‘global market’no state intervention, global competition,capital concentration, TNCs, polarised world,technology development global • 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A market B co-operation 2 regional

  15. IPCC scenarios 1 A1 ‘global market’no state intervention, global competition,capital concentration, TNCs, polarised world,technology development global B1 ‘global co-operation’social and environmental factors are important, global equity, global redistribution, world government, centralised lead of environment oriented and technical development[WEU] • 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A market B co-operation 2 regional

  16. IPCC scenarios 1 A1 ‘global market’no state intervention, global competition,capital concentration, TNCs, polarised world,technology development global B1 ‘global co-operation’social and environmental factors are important, global equity, global redistribution, world government, centralised lead of environment oriented and technical development[WEU] • 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A market B co-operation A2 ‘regional market’protectionist, anti-globalsystem of efficient localmarkets, based on limited range TNCs rather than statesgood local connections 2 regional

  17. IPCC scenarios 1 A1 ‘global market’no state intervention, global competition,capital concentration, TNCs, polarised world,technology development global B1 ‘global co-operation’social and environmental factors are important, global equity, global redistribution, world government, centralised lead of environment oriented and technical development[WEU] • 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A market B co-operation B2 ‘regional co-operation’intra-regional redistribution, equity and environment-friendly development directed by regional institutions, Harmony with SD principles: regional production, -trade, -employment; regional institutions and -governance. A2 ‘regional market’protectionist, anti-globalsystem of efficient localmarkets, based on limited range TNCs rather than statesgood local connections 2 regional

  18. Transport scenarios (for Hungary) fitted 1 A1 ‘global market’sustainability targets subordinated to efficiency, priority to supply side infrastructure of road transport, sever profitability criteria for public transport, decreasing service level in space and time, transport policy determined by lobby groups global • 2005 Background paper to Hungarian Sustainability Strategy A market B co-operation 2 regional

  19. Transport scenarios (for Hungary) fitted 1 A1 ‘global market’sustainability targets subordinated to efficiency, priority to supply side infrastructure of road transport, sever profitability criteria for public transport, decreasing service level in space and time, transport policy determined by lobby groups global • 2005 Background paper to Hungarian Sustainability Strategy A market B co-operation B2 ‘regional co-operation’integrated urban, spatial and transport policy, integrated modal policy, innovative local shuttle services, priority to PT, congestion price, local calming, in rural areas integrated goods and passenger transport 2 regional

  20. Transport scenarios (for Hungary) fitted 1 A1 ‘global market’sustainability targets subordinated to efficiency, priority to supply side infrastructure of road transport, sever profitability criteria for public transport, decreasing service level in space and time, transport policy determined by lobby groups global B1 ‘global co-operation’top-down elaborated legal and institutional changes,support sustainable scenarios at national and international level, eliminate regional inequalities • 2005 Background paper to Hungarian Sustainability Strategy A market B co-operation B2 ‘regional co-operation’integrated urban, spatial and transport policy, integrated modal policy, innovative local shuttle services, priority to PT, congestion price, local calming, in rural areas integrated goods and passenger transport A2 ‘regional market’ 2 regional

  21. Transport – mitigation and adaptation • While technology is very important to promote mitigation, without a proper wider context it may lead to more emissions instead of less. • The adaptation scenario is not just necessary, but also represent a different and multidimensional approach of risk management • From the IPCC scenarios ‘B2’ and „B1” dispose of values fitting pro-sustainability, and canpresent a multi-dimensional world • B1 ‘global co-operation’ scenario shows a kind of „world-wide union” approach for a global, bureaucratic, centrally governed co-operation – somewhat contradicting to certain values of sustainability • B2 ‘regional co-operation’ scenario is a regionally organised world with strong internal connections within the single unites and secondary connections between those unites. This form of governance seems to fit best to sustainability principles, while more moderated in globalisation

  22. TRANSPORT –MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION THANKS FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION ! Tamás Fleischer Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences http://www.vki.hu/~tfleisch/ tfleisch@vki.hu Climate Change 2007: Implications for Hungary AR4 – key insights – an IPCC Outreach EventCentral European University, Budapest, April 10-11, 2008

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