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Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP): Where do we stand after 3 years?. Bob Gall – HFIP Development Manager Fred Toepfer—HFIP Project manager Frank Marks – HFIP Research Lead Ed Rappaport – HFIP Operations Lead March 6, 2013. The HFIP Project – Vision/Goals. Vision

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Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP): Where do we stand after 3 years?

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Hurricane forecast improvement project hfip where do we stand after 3 years

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP):Where do we stand after 3 years?

Bob Gall – HFIP Development Manager

Fred Toepfer—HFIP Project manager

Frank Marks – HFIP Research Lead

Ed Rappaport – HFIP Operations Lead

March 6, 2013


The hfip project vision goals

The HFIP Project – Vision/Goals

  • Vision

    • Organize the hurricane community to dramatically improve numerical forecast guidance to NHC in 5-10 years

  • Goals

    • Reduce numerical forecast errors in track and intensity by 20% in 5 years, 50% in 10 years

    • Extend forecasts to 7 days

    • Increase probability of detecting rapid intensification at day 1 to 90% and 60% at day 5


Hfip baselines and goals track

HFIP Baselines and Goals:Track


Hfip baselines and goals intensity

HFIP Baselines and Goals:Intensity

4


Hfip overall strategy

HFIP Overall Strategy

Use global models at as high a resolution as possible to forecast track out to 7 days

Use regional models at 1-3 km resolution to predict inner core structure to meet intensity goals out to 5 days including rapid intensification

Hybrid DA for both regional and global using as much satellite and aircraft data as possible

Both regional and global models run as ensembles

Statistical post processing of model output to further increase forecast skill


Track error of models 2010 2011 improvement over hfip baseline

Track Error of Models (2010-2011)(% Improvement over HFIP baseline)


Impact of aircraft data improvement over d shifor

Impact of Aircraft Data(% improvement over D-SHIFOR)

7


How are we doing

How are we doing?

  • The HFIP goals are for model products delivered from NCEP to NHC.

    • The delivery date for these goals is hurricane season 2014

  • The following show the operational models (Global and Regional) performance for hurricane track and intensity in the Atlantic for latest hurricane season (2012)


Hurricane forecast improvement project hfip where do we stand after 3 years

Comparison of 2012 NCEP Operational Models to the 5 Year HFIP Goal: Track

GFS

5-year skill goal

Baseline skill

HWRF

GFDL


Hurricane forecast improvement project hfip where do we stand after 3 years

Comparison of 2012 NCEP Operational Models to the 5 Year HFIP Goal: Intensity

HFIP 5 year Goal

Baseline skill

GFS

GFDL

HWRF


Hurricane forecast improvement project hfip where do we stand after 3 years

Stream 1.5 Results for 2012


Hurricane forecast improvement project hfip where do we stand after 3 years

ECMWF

FSU

TVCA

UKMET

NOGAPS

GFS

AHW

FIM

HWRF

Canadian Model

GFDL


Hurricane forecast improvement project hfip where do we stand after 3 years

IntensityConsensus

GFDL

SPC3

FSU

LGEM

DSHP

HWRF

Wisconsin

AHW

TC-COAMPS


Hurricane forecast improvement project hfip where do we stand after 3 years

2012 HWRF Upgrades

  • The upgrade to the 3km triple-nested HWRF is a result of multi-agency efforts under HFIP support

    • EMC - Computational tuning to speed up the model, nest motion algorithm, physics improvements, 3km initialization and pre-implementation T&E

    • HRD/AOML - multi-moving nest, nest motion algorithm, PBL upgrades, interpolation routines for initialization and others.

    • DTC - code management and maintain subversion repository

    • ESRL - Physics sensitivity tests and idealized capability

    • NHC - Diagnose the HWRF pre-implementation results

    • URI - 1D ocean coupling in Eastern Pacific basin


Hurricane forecast improvement project hfip where do we stand after 3 years

2012 3km HWRF Operational

Upgrade Summary

  • Significant Improvements of H212

    • Track/intensity forecast skills for 2011/2010 seasons on Atlantic basin 20-25% improvement against HOPS

    • Track forecast skills of H212 of Eastern Pacific basin maximum 25% over the HOPS in 2011 season, but little degradation at day 4 and 5 in 2010 season mainly due to Hurricane Frank

    • Intensity of 2011 EP basin with over 40% to HOPS. Significant improvements in intensity bias is noted for both Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, for both 2010-2011 seasons.

    • The storm structure in terms of storm size and PBL height significantly improved

    • Much improved wind-pressure relationship in high wind speed regime

ATL Tracks

HOPS: oper. HWRF

H212: 2012 HWRF

ATL Intensity

HOPS: oper. HWRF

H212: 2012 HWRF

20-25% improvement


Hurricane forecast improvement project hfip where do we stand after 3 years

Impact of Radar Data


Hurricane forecast improvement project hfip where do we stand after 3 years

2.2.2 (EMC)

TDR assimilation

OPR HWRF

HWRF TDR

Impact of TDR data assimilation to hurricane intensity forecast

Cross section at initial time


Hurricane forecast improvement project hfip where do we stand after 3 years

Impact of TDR Data In Operational HWRF

Track Error

Intensity Error

Without TDR

Without TDR

With TDR

With TDR


Hurricane forecast improvement project hfip where do we stand after 3 years

  • Questions?


Extra slides

Extra Slides


Comparison of 2012 ncep operational models to the 5 year hfip goal track

Comparison of 2012 NCEP Operational Models to the 5 Year HFIP Goal: Track


Comparison of 2012 ncep operational models to the 5 year hfip goal intensity

Comparison of 2012 NCEP Operational Models to the 5 Year HFIP Goal: Intensity


Statistical post processing

Statistical Post Processing

  • Statistical Post Processing can add skill to dynamical forecasts.

  • There are a number of techniques based on ensembles or individual models.

  • One method is shown in the following figure

    • From the FSU Multi-Model Ensemble (MMEN) which forms a weighted mean of the many global and regional models run both operationally and by HFIP in real time.


Hurricane forecast improvement project hfip where do we stand after 3 years

2012 all storms


Hurricane forecast improvement project hfip where do we stand after 3 years

Genesis


Hurricane forecast improvement project hfip where do we stand after 3 years

Verification of model genesis for operational global models

  • All models have a bias towards over-prediction, caused by both false alarms as well as genesis occurring in the forecast long (>>48h) before observed genesis.

  • 4-ensemble consensus close to reliable up through 50-60%.


Nhc hurricane genesis statistics

NHC Hurricane Genesis Statistics


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