Module 4 understanding recent trends in ict policy
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Module 4: Understanding Recent Trends in ICT Policy. Dr Tim Kelly, Lead ICT Policy Specialist, infoDev/World Bank Sunday 8 March 2009. Agenda. Global trends Market competition Private sector participation Independent regulation MegaTrend 1: Convergence

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Module 4 understanding recent trends in ict policy

Module 4: Understanding Recent Trends in ICT Policy

Dr Tim Kelly, Lead ICT Policy Specialist, infoDev/World BankSunday 8 March 2009


Agenda

Agenda

  • Global trends

    • Market competition

    • Private sector participation

    • Independent regulation

  • MegaTrend 1: Convergence

  • MegaTrend 2: From fixed to wireless

  • MegaTrend 3: From narrowband to broadband

  • Groupwork brainstorming exercise:

    • What skills and competences might MCIT-IC require in five years time?


Global trends market competition

Global Trends: Market competition

Competition status by region, 2008

Source: ITU World Telecom Regulatory Database.


Global trends market competition1

Global Trends: Market competition

Competition status by service, 2008

Source: ITU World Telecom Regulatory Database.


Factors driving competition

Factors driving competition

  • It works

    • Strong demonstration effect of competitive market structures

  • It is mandated

    • Regional (e.g., EU) and Global (e.g., WTO) moves towards competitive market rules

  • Facilitated by technology

    • Many new competitive niches (e.g., VoIP, WiMAX, ISPs)

    • New techniques for spectrum efficiency and sharing

  • Intermodal competition

    • Incumbent PTO, cable TV, Internet and spectrum-based services are main platforms

  • Customers demand it

    • Large users, especially in the financial sector, demand more choice and lower costs

Countries allowing VoIP competition

Source: ITU World Telecom Regulatory Database.


Private sector participation

Private sector participation

Share of privately-owned incumbents,

By country (1991-2008) and by region (2008)

Source: ITU World Telecom Regulatory Database.


Independent regulation

Independent regulation

Number of independent regulators,

In total (1990-2008) and by region (2008)

Source: ITU World Telecom Regulatory Database.


Megatrend 1 convergence

MegaTrend 1: Convergence

A typology of convergence

Source: World Bank (forthcoming) “Information and Communication for Development Report 2009”


Examples of convergence

Examples of convergence

  • Service convergence

    • Triple Play, Service bundling

    • eg FIOS in USA offers TV, high-speed internet and voice services over an IP platform

  • Network convergence

    • Next Generation Networks (NGN)

    • eg KPTV in the Netherlands is migrating away from separate mobile and fixed networks onto a single NGN

  • Corporate convergence

    • Mergers, acquisitions, new service development

    • eg France Telecom has acquired Orange and rebranded its own mobile service and Wanadoo broadband under the Orange brand

  • Regulatory convergence

    • eg, OFCOM created in UK from five separate agencies

NTT: Shift from narrowband to broadband

Source: NTT Japan, cited in ITU Trends in Telecom Reform 2008.


Megatrend 2 from fixed to wireless

MegaTrend 2: From fixed to wireless

Number of users/subscribers, by service, 1995-2007 (in billions)

Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database.


Policy implications of shift to mobile

Policy implications of shift to mobile

  • Change in definition of universal service

    • Universal service becomes possible, as well as universal access

    • But operation of universal service funds may need review

  • Spectrum becomes key platform for future growth

    • Can available spectrum meet demand?

    • Embracing market mechanisms for spectrum allocation

  • Changing definitions of market dominance

    • To what extent are fixed and mobile services substitutable?

    • Will broadband internet be provided on a fixed or mobile platform? (or both)

Mobile overtaking fixed in Egypt (per 100 inhabitants)

Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database, MCIT-IC


Megatrends 3 from narrow to broadband

MegaTrends 3: From narrow to broadband

Number and type of Internet subscribers worldwide, millions, %

Source: ITU World Telecom Indicators Database, and World Bank estimates


From narrow to broadband in egypt

From narrow to broadband in Egypt

Number and type of Internet subscribers Egypt, millions, %

Source: ITU World Telecom Indicators Database, and MCIT-IC


Group work exercise brainstorming

Group Work Exercise: Brainstorming

  • Based on your understanding of the policy trends shaping the global and national ICT policy environments over the next five years:

    • What are the likely future competences and skills that would be required in MCIT-IC to help prepare for the next five years?

      • In the area of statistics and indicators?

      • In the requirement to provide policy guidance and advice?

      • In serving the industry and people of Egypt?

    • How can MCIT-IC prepare itself for these challenges?

      • Do these skills and competences already exist in-house?

      • Can they be developed from among the existing staff?

      • What new staff profiles might be needed?


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