Optimal adaptive survey design
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Optimal Adaptive Survey Design. Lars Lyberg, Frauke Kreuter, and James Wagner ITSEW 2010 Stowe, VT, USA, June 16. What Should Be Designed?. Requirements+specifications+operations Ideal goal+ Defined goal+Actual results

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Optimal Adaptive Survey Design

Lars Lyberg, Frauke Kreuter, and James Wagner

ITSEW 2010

Stowe, VT, USA, June 16


What Should Be Designed?

  • Requirements+specifications+operations

  • Ideal goal+ Defined goal+Actual results

  • Good survey design means control of accuracy through the specs (QA) and control of operations (QC)


Some Early Thinking

  • Hansen-Hurwitz-Pritzker 1967

    • Take all error sources into account

    • Minimize all biases and select a minimum-variance scheme so that Var becomes an approximation of (a decent) MSE

    • The zero defects movement that later became Six Sigma

  • Dalenius 1969

    • Total survey design


Some More Thinking

  • Textbook on total survey design

    • Hansen-Hurwitz-Cochran-Dalenius

  • Survey models and specific error sources

  • Cochran’s comment from 1968


Alternative Criteria of Effectiveness

  • Minimizing MSE for a given budget while meeting other requirements

  • Maximizing fitness for use for a given budget

  • Maximizing comparability for a given budget

  • All these reversed

  • Something else?


The Elements of Design

  • Assessing the survey situation (requirements)

  • Choosing methods, procedures, “intensities”, and controls (specifications)

  • Allocating resources

  • Assessing alternative designs

  • Carry out one of them or a modification of it

  • Have a Plan B


So, What’s the Problem?

  • No established survey planning theory

  • Multi-purpose, many users

  • The information paradox

  • Uninformed clients/users/designers

  • Much design work is partial, not total

  • Limited knowledge of effects of measures on MSE and cost


More Problems

  • Decision theory and economics theory not used to their potential

  • New surveys conducted without sufficient consideration of what is already known

  • No one knows the proper allocation of resources put in before, during and after

  • The literature is small


Various Skills Needed Which Calls for a Design Team

  • Survey methodology

  • Subject-matter

  • Statistics (decision theory, risk analysis, loss functions, optimization, process control)

  • Economics (cost functions, utility)

  • IT


The Adaptive Element

  • The entire survey process should be responsive to anticipated uncertainties that exist before the process begins and to real time information obtained throughout the execution of the process

    or

  • Use process data (paradata) to check, and if necessary, adjust the process


We Should Assemble What We Know

  • Assessment methods

  • Design principles

  • Trade-offs and their effects

  • The potential offered by other disciplines

  • We shouldn’t accept partial designs


Apply Design Principles

  • If pop is skewed then….

  • If pop is nested then….

  • If questions are sensitive then….

  • If a high NR rate is expected then…


Apply SOPs, CBMs or Best Practices

  • Part of the design is to use known, dependable methods


Examples of Trade-offs

  • Accuracy vs timeliness

  • Response burden vs wealth of detail

  • Conduct survey vs other information collection

  • Large n vs smaller n

  • Mixed vs single mode

  • NR bias vs measurement error

  • NR vs interpretation by family members


Process view

  • Upstream thinking (prevention)

  • Understanding variation

  • Measure cost of poor quality and waste

  • Intervention or improvement actions should be based on good data and statistical analysis

  • Continuous monitoring


Tentative Course Syllabus

  • The elements of design

  • Real world examples (e.g., CPS Technical Paper 63, PIAAC, the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Annual Survey of Hale Mountain Fish & Game Club, VT)

  • The literature on optimal decisions

  • Theory for adaptive treatment design and risk management


Course syllabus continued

  • Data for monitoring and decision making

  • Analysis of such data

  • Design lessons learned

  • Examples of bad designs and not so great trade-offs

  • Student project with TSE perspective

  • Student presentations


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