TRENDS AND CHALLENGES IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

1. TRENDS AND CHALLENGES IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC Sukti Dasgupta Senior Economist | ILO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific Decent Work for All ASIAN DECENT WORK DECADE 2006-2015

2. Overview • Key regional trends and challenges • Looking forward: Areas for action

3. Strong economic growth… • Real GDP annual average growth, 2002-07 and 2008-13 (%) … despite deceleration post global crisis, and poor growth in advanced countries. Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (Nov. 2014).

4. …growing middle class… • Middle class employment by Asia-Pacific subregions, 1991 and 2011 (000s & %) Note: Middle class defined as $4 and above. Source: Kapsos, S. and E. Bourmpoula: Employment and Economic Class in the Developing World, ILO Research Paper No 6 (Geneva, ILO, 2013).

5. …but income inequality persists • Income share of the top and bottom deciles, latest available year (%) … which calls for enhanced wage setting mechanisms, social dialogue and labour legislation. Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (Nov. 2014).

6. Mixed trends in employment growth… • Employment growth, 2013-14 (000s & %) Note: Non-seasonally adjusted; ages 15+, except Macau, China (ages 16+). Source: ILO estimates based on labour force survey data from national statistical offices.

7. …relatively low unemployment rates… • Total and youth unemployment rates, 2014 (%) … but youth unemployment rates are much higher. Young people are 2 to 5 times more likely to be unemployed than adults. Note: Youth ages 15-24, except in Macau (China) (16-24) and Singapore (15-29). Source: ILO estimates based on labour force survey data from national statistical offices.

8. …and poor job quality pervasive… • Vulnerable employment rate, 2013 and 2014 (%) … with high incidence of vulnerable employment. Note: Vulnerable employment is defined as own-account and contributing family workers. Source: ILO estimates based on labour force survey data from national statistical offices.

9. …agricultural employment still high… • Agriculture as a share of total employment, latest available year (%) Source: ILO: KILM, 8th Edition.

10. …informality is a challenge… • Informal employment as a share of non-agricultural employment, latest available year (%) …indicating poor working conditions, with limited job security, legal and social protection and representation. Note: Indonesia includes only Banten and Yogyakarta; Sri Lanka excludes the Northern Province; China covers six urban areas. Source: ILO: Statistical update on employment in the informal economy (Geneva, June 2012); National statistical offices.

11. …persistent working poverty… • Working poverty and share of total employment (million & %) … with many workers living on less than $2 per day. Note: Working poverty defined as workers living on less than $2 per day. Source: October 2013p update of the model in: Kapsos, S. and E. Bourmpoula (2013p). Employment and Economic Class in the Developing World. ILO Research Paper No 6; ILO - Trends Econometric Models, October 2013p.

12. …gender disparities widespread… • Labour force participation rates, latest available year (%) …regarding participation, equal pay and access to wage employment, among others. Source: National statistical offices; ILO: KILM, 8th Edition.

13. …and wages remain low… • Average monthly wages, latest year available (US$) … with wide intra-regional differences, and minimum wages the main wage setting mechanism, but challenges in rationalization and robust mechanisms for wage setting. Note: Hong Kong (China) and Japan refer to full-time employees. Source: ILO Global Wage Datatase 2014/15, based on national statistics.

14. …low ratification of Conventions… …economic progress not matched by social progress and labour market institutions…. Source: ILO: Normlex.

15. …mixed labour force trends… • Projected labour force growth, 2010-15, 2015-20, and 2020-25 (per cent) …while the labour force will expand significantly in some countries, others face ageing societies, factor spurring migration in the region, with large segments undocumented. Source: official national sources; ILO: Estimates and Projections of the Economically Active Population (EAPEP), Jan. 2014; ILO: ILOstat database.

16. In South East Asia, AEC 2015 • Will create new opportunities • But could also aggravate inequalities and vulnerabilities • The free mobility of skilled workers likely to have little impact, while increased migration of low and medium skilled likely, • Urgent policy action required to prepare labour markets for AEC, and to protect migrant workers.

17. In a nutshell, challenges include: • Inequality, wages, and labour market institutions • Gender equality • Social protection • Labour migration and regional integration • Large informal segments that are not organized • Low ratification rates of core conventions • Incomplete and irregular regional labour market information system

18. Overview • Key regional trends and challenges • Looking forward: Areas for action

19. Concerted action is needed Promote shared prosperity Manage structural change Greater tripartite dialogue

20. Manage structural change • Industrial and sectoral policies • Education and training • Social protection • Small and medium enterprises • Investing in infrastructure

21. Promote shared prosperity • Strengthening productivity-wage link • Improving opportunities for better quality jobs • Promoting gender equality • Protecting migrant workers

22. Greater cooperation and dialogue • Improving labour market information • Tripartite dialogue

23. THANK YOU SuktiDasgupta ILO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific Decent Work for All ASIAN DECENT WORK DECADE 2006-2015