Fire Growth Modeling
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Fire Growth Modeling Principles, Concepts, Development of New Model, Examples and Live Demo. Integrating Fire and Forest Management, February 25-28, 2002, Hinton, AB. Fire Growth Modeling – Principles and Concepts. Types of Fire Growth Models.

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Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

Fire Growth Modeling

Principles, Concepts,

Development of New Model,

Examples

and

Live Demo

Integrating Fire and Forest Management, February 25-28, 2002, Hinton, AB


Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

Fire Growth Modeling – Principles and Concepts

Types of Fire Growth Models

  • Approaches to Propagating Fire Spread

    • Cellular Propagation ( Raster )

    • Wave Propagation ( Elliptical )

    • Stochastic Propagation

  • Time Frame

    • Short-term ( 1 - 5 days )

    • Long-term ( weekly / monthly )

  • Search Mechanisms for Raster Models

    • Raster

    • Hash-link

    • Symmetrical

    • Asymmetrical


Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

Elliptical Models

FireBRAND Gwynfor Richards

Prometheus

Canadian Agencies

Farsite

Mark Finney

Fire Growth Modeling – Principles and Concepts

Examples of Fire Growth Models

Raster Models

Wildfire - Bernie Todd

PFAS - Kerry Anderson

ARCView

Rams Model

Others - FireNB - Ugo Feunekes - Remsoft Inc. PBMS - Tome Grimes, Evergreen


Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

Fire Growth Modeling – Principles and Concepts

Information Required to Run a Fire Growth Model

Required

  • Fuel Information ( cell-based … ie. 25, 50 100 m )

  • Fire Information ( start location, times and shape )

  • Hourly Weather Data, Wind Speed & Direction

  • Rate of Spread Equations

Desirable

  • Elevation Information

  • Fire Line Information

  • Fire Construction Efficiency Equations


Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

Fire Growth Modeling – Principles and Concepts

Fire Growth Models Should …..

Allow User Interactions to

  • Create Different Fire Scenarios

  • Change Fire Simulations

  • Change Weather Values

  • Change Fire Breaks / Fire Lines

  • Model Fire Extinguishment

  • Model Fire Spotting and Breaching

Desirable Outputs

  • Maps of Fire Perimeters and Area by Time

  • Maps of Actual Fire Behavior ( ROS, HFI, CFB )

  • Maps of Potential of Fire Behavior

  • Tabular Spatial Hourly Statistics

Be Easy to Use and Integrate into Operational

and GIS Environments


Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

Fire Growth Modeling – Principles and Concepts

Rate of Spread Equations - CFFDRS

Developed by Setting Fires under Different Fuel and Weather Conditions and Monitoring the Results

  • Early work - 2 minute test fires ( 1931 – 1961 )

  • Current work monitors the crown fire capability in

    large forest experimental plots (ICFME)


Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

Fire Growth Modeling – Principles and Concepts

The Ellipse is the Basic Concept of CFFDRS

  • 1ST Developed by Van Wagner in 1969

    • Length / Breadth Ratio

    • Fire Growth - Head Fire / Flank Fire / Back Fire

  • First applied (Sanderlin and Sunderson 1975)

  • Fire literature (Anderson et. al. 1982)

  • Four vertice technique (French et. al. 1990, French 1992)

  • Differential equation (Richards 1990, 1995)


Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

Fire Growth Modeling – Principles and Concepts

Raster Based Models

  • Works on a Cellular or Raster Basis

  • Uses the Theory of CFFDRS Ellipse

    • but a square is not a ellipse

  • 8 Point is the Simplest Model, also 16, 32 Point

  • Easy to Program

  • Does not Use the Complex Mathematical Equations

    • In Elliptical Models


  • Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Principles and Concepts

    Raster Based Models - Search Mechanisms

    • Different Search Mechanisms to try to Replicate the Ellipse

    • Raster Calculations can be Symmetrical or Asymmetrical

    • Symmetrical - 8 point / 16 point / 32 point

      • More points the better the search

  • Asymmetrical - 12 point / 20 point

    • Better than Asymmetrical

  • 8 Point 16 Point 32 Point 12 Point

    Symmetric Asymmetric

    Good

    Really Good

    Better

    Best


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Principles and Concepts

    Raster Based Models – Errors in the Elliptical Calculation

    • Error of Calculation in Multi-Point Models

    • Error Exists with Fast ROS in Homogeneous Fuels

    • Error is Less at Higher Search Levels ( 16, 32, 20 )

    8 Point

    16 Point

    32 Point

    Error increases as wind speed increases


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Principles and Concepts

    Elliptical Model Calculation

    • Calculations are based on complex mathematical

    • differential equations

    • Small wavelets around the perimeter of the ellipse

    • Reduces error calculation in raster technique

    • Works well in all fuels under all wind conditions

    • More realistic results – reduces tear-drop problem

    Raster Example

    Elliptical Example


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM

    The Canadian Wildland Fire Growth Model - Prometheus

    Why Prometheus ?

    In Greek mythology, Prometheus was a “ForeThinker”. “All arts, all skills, all men owe to the ForeThinker.”

    He stole fire from Zeus to give back to humanity


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM

    The Canadian Wildland Fire Growth Model - Prometheus

    The Need

    We need a fire growth model that is designed to work in the Canadian fuel complexes and that is based on fire behavior conditions as defined by the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System ( CFFDRS ).

    Also, the model should incorporate the latest -

    • Equations for Elliptical Fire Growth Modeling

    • Fire Behavior / Science Integration Methods

    • Diurnal Weather Modeling Techniques

    And be applicable to -

    • Operational and Strategic Fire Suppression Planning

    • Landscape Modeling


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM

    The Canadian Wildland Fire Growth Model - Prometheus

    The Purpose

    The purpose of this project is to develop, customize, and implement a physically-based, deterministic fire growth model that will allow for the operational and strategic assessments of spatial fire behaviour potential on the Canadian landscape.


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM

    The Canadian Wildland Fire Growth Model - Prometheus

    The Objectives

    • To develop a spatially-explicit, wave propagation fire growth model

    • that will simulate fire spread over a landscape on an hourly or daily basis.

    • To demonstrate the application of the FGM in the operational, real-time

    • prediction of fire growth for escaped wildfires and prescribed fires.

    • To strategically apply the FGM to determine the potential threat that

    • an individual wildfire or multiple wildfires may pose to selected

    • values-at-risk and the effectiveness of possible mitigative strategies

    • (e.g. fuel management).

    • To develop a FGM as a stand alone application that is easy to use

    • and integrate with other applications ( ie. landscape modeling )


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM

    Potential Applications

    Operational Fire Suppression

    • Prediction of wildfire behaviour for :

    • Escape wildfire fire situations

    • Prescribed burn planning.

    • Primary Users

    • Fire suppression organizations

    • Necessary Features :

      • Deterministic, real-time

      • FBP system equations

      • Single / Multiple ignitions

      • Multiple day simulations

      • Daily / hourly weather

      • Spatial fuels and topography

      • Point or polygon ignitions

      • Fuel Breaks

      • Fire Line Construction

      • Breaching of Fire Breaks


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM

    Strategic Management Planning

    Potential Applications

    Evaluating threat to key values-at-risk

    Conduct “what-if” scenarios in a planning mode to determine the threat of potential wildfires to important values (communities, recreation, industries, timber areas, etc.)

    • Primary Users

      • Land / resource managers

      • Fire managers

    Los Alamos, 2000


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM

    Strategic Management Planning

    Potential Applications

    Assessing wildfire

    threat mitigation strategies

    Assess the effectiveness of alternative forest management strategies at reducing the threat of large fires.

    In Relation to :

    • Harvest scheduling

    • Cut block design

    • Silviculture

    • Stand density management

    • Level of Use

      • Stand

      • Compartment

      • Landscape Level

    • Primary Users

      • Land / resource managers

      • Fire managers


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM

    Strategic Management Planning

    Potential Applications

    Evaluate Burn Probabilities

    across a Landscape

    Use stochastic modeling to produce a burn probability map for all points on the landscape under different forest / fuel and weather conditions.

    • Primary Users

      • Land / resource managers

      • Fire managers

    • Level of Use

      • Landscape level

    • Desired Features

      • Stochastic simulation model

      • Link to spatial timber supply models

      • Link to values at risk to produce quantitative threat assessment


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM

    Potential Applications

    Strategic Management Planning

    Function of Fire as

    a Landscape Disturbance

    Use a process based fire growth model to investigate the role of fire in establishing and maintaining landscape patterns

    • Primary Users

      • Land / resource managers

      • Landscape ecologists

      • Fire researchers

      • Fire managers

    • Level of Use

      • Landscape level

    • Desired Features

      • Requires succession models for vegetation, stand structure, etc.

      • Link to landscape disturbance models


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM

    Potential Applications

    Teaching and Training

    Consequence modeling of “what-if” scenarios.

    • Primary Users

      • Fire Suppression organizations

      • Companies

      • Educational institutes


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM

    Integrated Multi-Disciplinary Team Approach

    Project Scope

    Fire Management Agencies

    ( Operational )

    Landscape Disturbance Simulation/Modelling

    Land/Forest Managers

    ( Government/Industry )

    Canadian Fire

    Growth Model

    Project Team

    Fire Research

    ( CFS )

    Fire Propagation Algorithm

    ( Brandon University )

    Software Engineers

    ( Ramsoft,Victoria, BC )


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM

    Integrated Multi-Disciplinary Team Approach

    Project Contributors

    • Alberta Forest Protection Division

    • Alberta Ecological Landscape Division

    • British Columbia Forest Service

    • CFS

    • Foothills Model Forest

    • Manitoba Conservation Fire Program

    • Millar Western Industries

    • Parks Canada

    • Ontario Ministry of Lands and Forest

    • Quebec Ministry of Forests, SOPFEU

    • Resources, Wildfire and

    • Economic Development, NWT

    • Saskatchewan Environment and

    • Resource Management

    • Yukon - Indian and Northern Affairs Canada


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM

    Integrated Multi-Disciplinary Team Approach

    Project Design

    • Project Steering Committee

      • Cordy Tymstra - Project Leader ( Alberta LFS )

      • Gary Mandrusiak ( Alberta LFS )

      • Kelvin Hirsch, Bernie Todd ( Canadian Forest Service )

      • Gwynfor Richards ( Brandon University )

      • Rob McAlpine (Ontario MNR)

    • Technical Sub-Committees


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM

    Integrated Multi-Disciplinary Team Approach

    Technical Sub-Committees :

    Ensures the Integration of the Latest Fire Behaviour / Science Technology

    • Spread AlgorithmGwynfor Richards ( Brandon University )

    • Spotting and Breaching of Fire BreaksMarty Alexander ( Canadian For. Service )

    • Diurnal Weather ModelingJudi Beck ( BC Ministry of Forests )

    • Fire ExtinguishmentKerry Anderson ( Canadian For. Service )

    • Fuels / FBP TypingMike Etches ( Parks Canada )

    • Data I/O StandardsHua Sun ( AB Land and Forest Service )

    • ProgrammingGuy Thibault ( SOPFEU )

    • Interface DesignBernie Todd ( Canadian For. Service )

    • FBP CodeMike Wotton ( Canadian For. Service )

    • Topography and Spatial WeatherJudi Beck ( BC Ministry of Forests )

    • Fire Line ConstructionKelvin Hirsh ( Canadian Forest Service )

    • Technology TransferTerry Van Nest ( ETC )


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM

    Developmental Phases of the CWFGM

    Phase 1

    Phase 2

    • Enhancements to Spread Algorithm

    • Fire Line Construction

    • Fire Line / Resource Efficiency

    • Spotting and Breaching of Fire Breaks

    • Residual Stand Modeling

    • 3-D view

    • Topography

    • Elliptical Spread Algorithm Engine

    • FBP Equations and Calculations

    • Spatial Data Input

    • Diurnal Weather Calculations

    • Fire Ignitions

    • Modeling of Fire Extinguishment

    • Modeling of Fuel Breaks

    Phase 3

    • Landscape Disturbance & Succession

    • Deterministic and stochastic model development


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Examples

    Types of Fire Spread

    Burning Conditions

    FFMC80 - 88

    DMC35

    DC300

    Fuel Type C2 / C3

    Temperature15 – 27

    RH50 – 98 %

    Fire StartJune 20, noon

    Fire StopJune 21, 8 pm

    Wind Speed0 – 1 km/ hr

    Fire spreads in a circular pattern under now wind conditions


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Examples

    Types of Fire Spread

    Burning Conditions

    FFMC80 - 88

    DMC35

    DC300

    Fuel Type C2 / C3

    Temperature15 – 27

    RH50 – 98 %

    Fire StartJune 20, noon

    Fire StopJune 21, 8 pm

    Wind Speed5 – 10 km/ hr

    Fire spreads in a elliptical pattern under moderate wind conditions


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Examples

    Types of Fire Spread

    Burning Conditions

    FFMC80 - 88

    DMC35

    DC300

    Fuel Type C2 / C3

    Temperature15 – 27

    RH50 – 98 %

    Fire StartJune 20, noon

    Fire StopJune 21, 8 pm

    Wind Speed10 – 25 km/ hr

    Fire spreads in a oblong elliptical pattern under high wind conditions


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Examples

    Types of Fire Spread

    Burning Conditions

    FFMC80 - 88

    DMC35

    DC300

    Fuel Type C2 / C3

    Temperature15 – 27

    RH50 – 98 %

    Fire StartJune 20, noon

    Fire StopJune 21, 8 pm

    Wind Speed10 – 25 km/ hr

    If the fire lines do NOT stop the spread of the fire at the beginning of the burn period, then the final size will very similar to the situation where NO control was attempted.


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Examples

    Types of Fire Spread

    • Fire spreads is controlled by

    • spatial fuel patterns.

    • Green Hardwood stands will

    • limit fire spread

    • This is used in fire suppression

    • planning to control fire spread

    Spatial Fuel Patterns are important in Fire Spread


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Examples

    Types of Fire Spread

    • As wind speed and directions change over daily periods, the spread direction of the fire will; change.

    • This fire started as a low wind spread situation on day 1, then on day 2 the winds picked up from the south and then switched to the south westerly direction.

    Wind Speed and Direction are important in Fire Spread


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Examples

    Types of Fire Spread

    Burning Conditions

    FFMC80 - 88

    DMC25

    DC300

    Fuel Type C2 / C3

    Temperature15 – 30

    RH50 – 98 %

    Fire StartJune 20, noon

    Fire StopJune 21, 8 pm

    Wind Speed1 – 35 km/ hr

    The model will simulate multiple fire starts, which start at different times and locations but burn under the same weather conditions.


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling – Examples

    Future Model Outputs

    Actual --->

    Rate of Spread

    Head Fire Intensity

    Fire Type ( CFB )

    Hourly Perimeters

    Potential --->

    Sample outputs from WILDFIRE FGM


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling - Summary

    CWFGM Summary – Model Design

    • Easy to use and implement into operational environment

    • Developed in C and C++ for Windows 95 / NT platforms

    • GIS integration of spatial data

      • inputs and outputs will be ARCView GridAscii compliant

  • Diurnal weather modeling

    • for both weather and FFMC values

  • Interactive use of model

    • adaptive to changes ( ie. fuel data and weather streams )

  • Outputs

    • spatial statistics, tables, graphs, ascii files and color graphics files

  • Easy to integrate with other models and information systems


  • Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling - Summary

    CWFGM Summary - Benefits

    • Reduce potential for losses due to wildfires

      • improved fire suppression

      • fuels management

    • Improve public safety

    • Enhance sustainable forest management capability

    • Increase understanding of fire as a natural disturbance

    • Evaluate effect of climate change and other natural and human factors on wildfire potential


    Fire growth modeling principles concepts development of new model examples and live demo

    Fire Growth Modeling

    Questions ?

    Chisholm Fire, 2001


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