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The Tubis Family of Quantitative Systems for Integrity Management of Gas Distribution

The Tubis Family of Quantitative Systems for Integrity Management of Gas Distribution Pipeline Networks. Presentation to ONEOK Corporation January 19-21, 2010. Who is Optima. Established in 1984

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The Tubis Family of Quantitative Systems for Integrity Management of Gas Distribution

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  1. The Tubis Family of Quantitative Systems for Integrity Management of Gas Distribution Pipeline Networks Presentation to ONEOK Corporation January 19-21, 2010

  2. Who is Optima • Established in 1984 • Pioneer in developing models and methods for large-scale decision and optimization problems in: • Risk assessment and safety enhancement • Asset management • Maintenance and improvement strategies for infrastructure networks • Optimal replacement and budget planning • Characteristics of Problems Solved: • Multi-objective problems with budget constraints • Uncertainties, incomplete information and probabilistic consequences: optimal decisions under uncertainty • Dynamic decisions and multi-stage planning • Need for multi-disciplinary effort

  3. Systems for Gas Utilities • Tubis • Comprehensive decision support tool for risk assessment, risk reduction and cost optimization of gas distribution networks • Super-Tubis • Unique optimization system for monitoring, coordinating, and allocating resources to independent networks to achieve corporate objectives while maintaining independence of network decisions • SALAS • Innovative, unique, fast and inexpensive tool for segmenting pipe networks and attaching pipe data and histories to individual pipes • Meter Sampling and Replacement Model • Optimal sampling of residential meters and optimal repair/replacement strategies • Gas Supply Planning Model • Optimal strategies for purchasing, storing and transporting natural gas when uncertainties in cost, capacity and availability exist

  4. Other Systems for Infrastructures • Pontis • National bridge management system adopted by FHWA and AASHTO, implemented in 48 states. Won 1996 Edelman Prize • Road Network Optimization System (NOS) • Beginning with Arizona pavement management system, it has transformed network pavement management worldwide. Won 1982 Edelman Prize • PRISM • Latest generation of road management system implemented in several European countries • ASOP • System for optimal selection of performance levels—widely used in maintaining non-pavement elements and bridge management • Multi-network Management System for City of Beijing

  5. Under Development • Web-based Tubis system • Multi-attribute risk assessment model for plastic pipes (OTD and GTI) • Tubis plastic module (ONEOK) • Country-wide multi-network optimization model (Portugal, Hungary) • Tubis for water networks- Pilot • Tubisfor electrical transmission networks (feasibility study for PSE&G)

  6. Awards • The Institute for Management Sciences • 1982 Winner of International TIMS Competition and Edelman Prize – for Arizona PMS • The Institute for Operations Research and Management Sciences • 1996 Edelman Finalist Prize – for Pontis Edelman Prize is an annual award to the winner of international competition for ‘the most innovative high impact application of management sciences’

  7. Infrastructure Management Clients • Federal Highway Administration • The World Bank • Portugal National Road Directorate • Ministry of Communications, Saudi Arabia • States of California, Arizona, Kansas, Vermont, Washington, Minnesota, North Carolina • City of San Francisco • City of Beijing • National Science Foundation • The Urban Institute World Bank

  8. Energy Clients • US Department of Energy • Gas Research Institute • New York Gas Group • Gas Technology Institute • Rochester Gas and Electric • Niagara Mohawk • Central Hudson Gas and Electric • Pacific Gas and Electric • KeySpan Energy Corporation

  9. Energy Clients (continued) • British Gas • Gaz de France • Long Island Lighting Company • Dominion: Pennsylvania, Ohio • ONEOK Corporation • New Jersey Natural Gas • Consolidated Edison of NY • CenterPoint Energy • Public Service Electric and Gas

  10. Benefits of PMS in Arizona • Saved $14 million ($32 vs. $46 million in first year) • Saved over $100 million in next 5 years • Focal point of centralized decision process • Coordinated data gathering and management • Made budget requests defensible

  11. Impacts of Arizona PMS • Pioneering system and impetus for Intermodal Surface Transportation Act • Forms the core of courses in infrastructure mgt • Some countries and states using the model: • Arizona • Kansas • Alaska • Colorado • California • New Jersey • Holland • Finland • Portugal • Hungary • Australia (NSW) • Saudi Arabia • Greece

  12. Impacts of Pontis • Major and influential system, adopted by Federal Highway Administration and AASHTO • Implemented in 48 States • Fundamentally changed all aspects of: • Data gathering and information management • Maintenance, repair and replacementdecisions, and • Federal funding allocations for managing bridge networks in US • Adopted by several other countries • Forms the core of infrastructure management courses in Berkeley, M.I.T. and Cornell, among others

  13. Impacts of Tubis • Has influenced (we hope) risk management by introducing rigorous analytical methods and learning systems to deal with uncertainties • Approved by NY PSC, CA PUC, OPS and NTSB • Saved CHG&E 8 mill. in penalties • Helped PG&E negotiate budget for cast iron replacement in San Francisco • Helped RG&E settle long-standing regulatory issues

  14. Introducing our partner PAconsulting.com

  15. Introduction to PA Consulting • PA Consulting has a world-wide presence and is involved in Energy in many countries. PA is probably the largest utility consulting firm in the world Americas Boulder, CO Buenos Aires Cambridge, MA Chicago, Il Houston, TX Los Angeles, CA Madison, WI New York, NY Plainsboro, NJ Washington, DC Europe Belgium Italy Czech Republic Luxembourg Denmark Netherlands Finland Norway France Spain Germany Sweden Ireland United Kingdom Main U.S. Office In D.C. Asia-Pacific Australia Japan China Malaysia Hong Kong New Zealand Indonesia Singapore Revenues $ 660 Million Staffing: ~ 4,000 Optima and PA Group Inc. are working together to expand their footprint in this market.

  16. Who is PA? PA’s has a number of related practices.Over 20% of PA’s market share is in Energy. IT Consulting & Technology Systems Integration & Solutions Energy Global Business Transformation Strategy & Industries Government Transport & Infrastructure IT Strategy IS Implementation People & Organizational Change Financial Services Gov’t & Public Services IT Infrastructure Enterprise Wide Solutions Business Ops & Performance Manufacturing Infrastructure & Dev Services Decision Sciences Project Management Strategy &Marketing Transportation Life Sciences & Technology Wireless Technology Energy Business Transformation Product & Process Engineering Environmental & Resource Analytics Wholesale Energy Markets Energy Strategy & Risk Management

  17. Relevant Experience PA Energy Clients

  18. Management of Pipeline Networks

  19. Regulatory Environment

  20. The Problem • What is the optimal balance between • Risk reduction • Short-term costs • Long-term costs • Public perception • What is the value of additional inspection/data? • What additional data should be collected? • What is the optimal pipe replacement policy?

  21. Objectives • Reduce risks to public • Reduce risks to property • Preserve investments in distribution systems • Minimize expected long term costs • Maintain reliability of service • Meet regulatory concerns • Coordinate with other activities

  22. Risk Management of Gas Pipes knowledge Information Data Need More Information Analysis & Decision Making Individual Recommended Actions

  23. Issues • New regulations • External and internal economic concerns • Dynamism of budget planning • Actions and budge spent now affect: • future conditions • future risks • future actions needed • future costs • Decisions are made under uncertainty

  24. Areas of Uncertainty • Physical condition of pipes • Soil environmentof pipes • Rates of deterioration • Consistency of past information • History on construction, repair and other activities • Effect of various factors on failure rates • Future regulatory requirements

  25. What needs to be done?

  26. Approach • Use common basis for assessment of all risks • Produce policies that can be • quantified • justified • Show effect of policies (or lack of) on • future conditions • future risks • future budget needs • future asset value

  27. Design Considerations • Comprehensive information management, budget allocation, and planning tool • Rigorous, defensible system • Require minimum amount of past data • Be easy to use and inexpensive to implement. • Address corporate and regulatory concerns. • Implement, improve and expand • Compatible with GIS and other systems

  28. Overview Optima Incorporated This presentation is confidential to Optima Inc. and should not be duplicated or distributed.

  29. Objective • Tubis is a comprehensive information management, gas pipeline maintenance and risk management system designed to assist gas utilities with decisions in maintenance and replacement planning and resource allocation. The principal objectives of the system are to help in: • Increasing public safety, • Reducing risks to property, • Minimizing overall short and long term costs, and • Preserving the integrity of the pipeline system

  30. Network Information Tubis Recommendations Specification Experience Replace History Risk Management ResourceAllocation Repair Survey Mantain Maintenance Opportunity Policy

  31. Meeting Data Needs • The foundation of Tubis information needs is a database of segments from your network and relevant info which is produced jointly with client. • We can use geographic information system or a proprietary product developed by Optima, known as SALAS to build it. Dynamic Updating Knowledge & Practice Company Leak Data Geographic Information

  32. General Features of Tubis • A state-of-the-art system to assist planners in pipe replacement decisions • A defensible tool for optimal budget planning • A database management system for all relevant field, historical, and economic data. • A formal mechanism for building on experience and judgment of engineers. • Ability to automatically achieve higher accuracy with time.

  33. Functions of Tubis • Pipe and leak dynamic information management • Risk assessment • Risk management • Optimal pipe replacement • Network-wide risk management • Network-wide optimization

  34. Characteristics of Tubis • Provides comprehensive information management • Uses existing knowledge base • Models learn automatically with time • Extensive optimization capabilities • Can coordinate with public work ‘opportunities’ • Defensible risk and seismic models • Considers economics, risk, environmental, segment specific data, population, and corporate policy • Answers ‘what if ?’ questions

  35. Optimization and Planning Models • Provides answers for: • budget planning • resource allocation • prioritization of replacements • coordination with ‘opportunities’ • effect of budget and length constraints • entire or any subset of network • resolution of conflicts • captures dynamics of decision making • utilities’ specific planning objectives

  36. Adaptive Learning of the Prediction Models • Learns from future data • Adapts the probabilities and/or ranges • Direct updating of the probabilities • Indirect updating of the probabilities

  37. Risk Assessment and Quantification • Probability of corrosion leak, graphitization, break, and joint leak • Various levels of risk consequences for every pipe segment in system • Seismic activity on pipe rupture and its consequences as a result of • Surface faulting • Liquefaction • Landslides

  38. Risk Assessment cont’d • Probability of gas entering buildings is calculated thru various engineering and geotechnical models. • All aspects of economical and public safety issues are quantified.

  39. Tubis Considers the Risks of: • Effect of seismic activity on pipe rupture • Surface faulting • Liquefaction • Landsliding • Cast iron breaks • Cast iron joint leaks • Steel corrosion leaks • Plastic slow growth failure • Plastic breaks • Plastic joint leaks

  40. Regulatory Evaluation and Acceptance Tubis has been approved by: • New York State Public Service Commission • California Public Utilities Commission • National Transportation Safety Board

  41. Optimal Segmental Policy Model • Quantifies risks and other factors in economic terms • Detailed replacement cost calculations • Sophisticated multi-period optimization model • Defensible replacement priority ranking

  42. Network Risk Evaluation • Ranks all segments by risk • For any budget finds optimal set of pipes to be replaced • Can accept budgets as constraints by • material network • geographical divisions • administrative divisions • Can accept minimum replacement lengths as constraints

  43. The “SuperTubis” Corporate-wide administrative, auditing and budget planning tool • Optimal allocation of resources • Considers planning needs of each division in overall network decisions • Considers budget policies • Ties different regional TUBIS and related systems • Possibility of expansion to transmission and service lines

  44. Benefits • Provides least cost maintenance strategy, saves money and reduces risk • Comprehensive • Flexible, answers “what if” questions • Addresses uncertain nature of pipeline risk and maintenance management • Ties in different planning and budgetary policies

  45. Who contributed to Tubis? • Dr. KamalGolabi, Principal Investigator Operations Research-modeling and optimization models (Optima) • Dr. Chi-Hyuck Jun, Operations Research predictive models (Optima) • Dr. James McNab, Corrosion Engineering corrosion models (Exponent) • Dr. Rose Ray, Statistics (Exponent) • Dr. Shirley Nozaki, Data base (Consultant) • Dr. Aldo Moezzi, Data base (Optima) • Dr. Michael Gordon, learning systems (Optima) Data analysis and statistical models

  46. Contribution (continued) • Jose Wong, statistical analysis (Optima) • Michael Clements, programming (Optima) • Sergio Beider, system design and programming (Optima) • Yan Kitsis, system design and programming (Optima) • Anil Garg,system design and programming (Optima) • Dr. Li-Hui Tsai,Learning systems (Optima and Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory) • Dr. Woody Savage,(PG&E) Seismic Models

  47. Framework of Tubis Plastic Failure Prediction Model

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