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Greening Freight: Policy Options for Moving the EU Forward

Greening Freight: Policy Options for Moving the EU Forward. Deborah Gordon Carnegie Europe and Edelman-The Centre Brussels 9 November 2011. Heavy-Duty Truck Roadmap Business-as-usual freight transport Growing truck dominance Growing diesel demand Growing climate burdens

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Greening Freight: Policy Options for Moving the EU Forward

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  1. Greening Freight:Policy Options for Moving the EU Forward Deborah Gordon Carnegie Europe and Edelman-The Centre Brussels 9 November 2011

  2. Heavy-Duty Truck Roadmap • Business-as-usual freight transport • Growing truck dominance • Growing diesel demand • Growing climate burdens • Public policy prescriptions • Protect public health • Reduce climate forcing • Enhance energy and economic security y

  3. EU Energy and Economic Security Issues Related to HDVs • Reduce dependence on dwindling diesel supplies and oil imports • Protect against unstable global oil markets • Maintain EU competitiveness through production of future fuel-efficient HDVs • Avoid possible off-loading of high-C HDVs from makers in nations with GHG standards Source: European Commission, European Energy and Transport Trends to 2030 (2008)

  4. EU Climate Security Issues Related to HDVs • EU to reduce emissions by 80-95% below 1990 levels by 2050 • Growing GHGs in transport sector requires a 60% reduction by 2050 (with respect to 1990) • By 2030, the goal for transport will be to reduce GHG emissions to around 20% below their 2008 level Source: European Commission, European Energy and Transport Trends to 2030

  5. Current EU Freight Situation • Trucks haul 70+% EU freight • The EU HDV market is dominated by 7 major manufacturers (accounting for 93% of EU registrations) • DAF (Netherlands) • Daimler AG (Germany) • M.A.N. (Germany) • Renault (France) • Scandia (Sweden) • Volvo (Sweden) • Iveco (Italy) • Major EU HDV manufacturers account for an estimated 40% of worldwide HDV production • The majority of freight operators are small in size, with 85% having fewer than 10 vehicles • Major shipping companies determine which technologies enter the marketplace by closely watching fuel use, fuel price, and driving patterns

  6. EU FreightBusiness-as-usual Trends • 31% more HDVs by 2030 • 27% more HDV travel by 2030 • HDV fuel economy could deteriorate by ~3% annually due to Euro VI (2013) Source: European Commission, European Energy and Transport Trends to 2030 (2008)

  7. Growing HDT Diesel Demands • Long-haul trucks account for 37% diesel use in 2010 • HDV diesel use projected to increase 21% by 2030 Source: European Commission, European Energy and Transport Trends to 2030 (2008)

  8. Increasing HDT CO2 Emissions • Trucks account for 85% all freight CO2 (2010) • Long-haul trucks account for 39% of the 2030 emissions; fuel saving potential is the greatest of all categories • HDV CO2 emissions increase in BAU of 15% from 2010 to 2030

  9. EU Existing and Planned HDV-related Policies • Conventional pollutant emission standards • Short-term climate forcing • Balancing dual objectives (air quality/climate) • Driver training • Reduce in-use GHGs • Greater reduction when paired with GHG standards • HDV road fees • Indirect GHG benefit • GHG emission standards • Standards in progress • Component efficiencies (tyres) Source: AEA, Report to the European Commission, “Reduction and Testing of GHG Emissions from Heavy Duty Vehicles,” February 2011.

  10. HDV Policies at EU Member State Level • EU HDV GHG standards should not be left to individual states • National variability too great • Long-haul and regional delivery vehicles present greatest opportunity for GHG emission reduction • State policies, especially fiscal, can support EU HDV GHG standards • Reduce in-use GHGs Source: AEA, Report to the European Commission, “Reduction and Testing of GHG Emissions from Heavy Duty Vehicles,” February 2011.

  11. A Way Forward:HDV GHG Reduction Potential HDV Technology Potential Improvement in Fuel Consumption (U.S.) Fuel consumption reduction potential 35% – 50% U.S. Comparison of 2015-2020 New Vehicle Potential Fuel Savings Technology for Seven Vehicle Types: Tractor Trailer (TT), Class 3-6 Box (Box), Class 3-6 Bucket (Bucket), Class 8 Refuse (Refuse), Transit Bus (Bus), Motor Coach (Coach), and Class 2b Pickups and Vans (2b). SOURCES: ICCT, Moving the World, December 1, 2010; TIAX (2009) at ES-4

  12. Technologies Improve HDV Performance • Technologies in the drivetrain and vehicle categories can have a large impact on fuel consumption • Hybridisation, dual fuel, lightweighting, automatic tire pressure, automated transmission, aerodynamics, low rolling resistance tyres, heat recovery,……… • For vehicles with an urban duty cycle with frequent stop / start operation, hybrid vehicles offer the highest benefit: savings of between 20% and 30% • For HDVs on long-haul aerodynamic aids (e.g. trailers) offer benefits: 10% reduction (and more)

  13. Next Step: EU Set HDV GHG Standards

  14. Frameworks Paving the Way on HDV GHG Regulatory Design

  15. Policy Options to Reduce HDV CO2 Emissions Direct Policies Indirect/Supporting Policies • Performance (GHG) Standards for HDVs • Guaranteed timeline • Technology forcing • Requires enforcement • Fuel Taxes • Variable responsiveness • Must be indexed to inflation • Self enforcing • Emissions trading • Labeling HDVs • Speed limits on HDVs • Driver training • Road user charges • Differentiated vehicle purchase taxes/incentives

  16. Thank you Deborah Gordon Senior Associate Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Energy & Climate Program Washington, DC http://www.carnegieendowment.org/programs/

  17. U.S. Standards for Improved HDV Performance U.S. Standards (MY 2017): Largest Reductions in HDV Categories

  18. HDV Technology Compendium

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