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Week 2: The Problem of Crime

Week 2: The Problem of Crime.  To deal effectively with crime we need good info about: What kinds of crimes are happening How much they are occurring Who is involved in them Where & when they are likely to happen How do we get this information? The “crime data problem”.

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Week 2: The Problem of Crime

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  1. Week 2: The Problem of Crime  To deal effectively with crime we need good info about: What kinds of crimes are happening How much they are occurring Who is involved in them Where & when they are likely to happen How do we get this information? The “crime data problem”

  2.  How to get empirical crime data? Different info sources on social events • Official records (of criminal cases) • Surveys (of people’s experiences) • Observations (of criminal events) • Other sources (of information about criminal persons or events)  Mostly emphasize the first two (for estimating crime trends and patterns)

  3. A. Official Records of crime cases • Police  Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) • Police records of “crimes reported” and “arrests made” • From statistics reported to the FBI by police depts. • Note Division of UCR into 2 categories: • Part I: the “Index” Crimes (Crimes known + Arrests) • Part II: the “other” crimes (all other offenses) (Arrests) • UCR = “aggregate” (group-level) reports • Problems only include recorded crimes • Selective reporting (to police and by police) • “Hierarchy rule” undercounts • Non-reporting of many crimes (“dark figure”) • NIBRS = incident-level reports (recent alternative to traditional UCR)

  4. Official Records (continued)  Other types of official records? • Court records (cases filed & adjudications) • Juvenile courts • Administrative/regulatory courts • Correctional records (data on outcomes) • Data on hard-core vs. lesser offenders  These all represent only “processed” cases  Beyond Official records = “Semi-official records” from other agencies (e.g., ERs, fire depts, social services [DFSC], insurance companies, stores, security firms)

  5. B. Surveys as 2nd major source of crime data • How do surveys differ from records? • Sample from population • Questionnaire or interview of responders • 2 Kinds of surveys used for crime data • Victimization Surveys • Self-Report Surveys

  6. B. Surveys (of potential victims & offenders) • “Victimization” or “Victim” surveys • Survey of population re: victimization • Official victim survey = NCVS (BJS) • Unofficial surveys (for special crimes) • “Self-report” surveys • Juvenile delinquency • Victimless crimes (e.g., drugs) • “Ordinary crimes” • Chronic offenders

  7. Comparing sources of crime data: • Surveys vs. Official records • Strengths & weaknesses of records? • It’s always being collected and it’s official • Biases & errors? • Strengths & weaknesses of surveys? • More detailed info & unrecorded crimes • Biases & errors? • Which kind of data is best?

  8. Other Data Sources for Crime? • Observations (natural or contrived) • Other possibilities • Life Histories • Case studies & field studies • Historical documents • Media accounts • Personal experiences

  9. According to the available crime data: What crimes occur & how often? • Part I crimes & Part II crimes • Other categories of crimes? • Violent Crimes (crimes against persons) • Property Crimes • Public Order Crimes (vice; disorder) • Political Crimes • White-Collar Crimes • Organized Crime

  10. Part I (Index) Crimes • Murder (nonnegligent homicide) • Aggr. Sexual Assault (Forcible Rape) • Robbery • Aggravated Assault (& Battery) • Burglary • Larceny/Theft • Motor Vehicle Theft • Arson

  11. Part I (Index) Crimes • Part I Crimes known or reported to police: • About 12% are violent crimes • About 88% are property crimes • Crimes Known vs. Crimes Occurring? • 47% of violent crimes are reported to police (54% of serious violence) • 40% of property crimes are reported to police • Crimes known vs. arrests made? • 46% of reported violent crime result in arrest • 17% of reported property crimes result in arrest

  12. Crimes Reported to Police

  13. Clearances of UCR Crimes

  14. Part II Crimes (all other crimes)? • Only arrest statistics reported for these • 83% of all arrests involve Part II crimes (17% = Part I arrests) • Largest category = public order crimes (alcohol + drug-related) • Part 2 includes both violent & property crimes, as well as public order crimes • Part 2 crimes cover the whole range of severity (from trivial to lethal acts) • Note: Part 1 and Part 2 do not correspond simply to “serious” and “minor” crimes

  15. Are crime rates changing? • Short-term fluctuations = “noise” • Regular cyclical changes? • time of day & seasonal variations • Irregular trends and changes? • Over the centuries? • During last century? • During this century (since 2000)? • Future trends

  16. UCR Crime Rates 1960-2010

  17. UCR Crime Rates 1960-2010

  18. 30-year Trend in UCR Murder Rates: 1990-2010

  19. Trends from 4 Different Data Sources

  20. Variations in crime by location? Where are we at greatest risk? • Regional differences? • Urban-rural differences? • Public spaces • Residential locations • International patterns? • Is the US one of the more crime-ridden countries in the world?

  21. Regional Differences in Crime

  22. Who commit crimes (usually)? The Usual comparisons: • Young vs. Older people • Males vs. females • Racial Minorities vs. majorities • Lower vs. middle vs. upper classes

  23. Age Differences in Crime • The Universal Age Curve of crime

  24. Gender Differences in Crime • Different percentages/ratios of male-to-female involvement in crime • Violence = about 8-to-1 (male/female) • Property = about 3-to-1 (male/female) • Recent changes in female criminality? • Convergence hypothesis  gender rates getting closer • Note differences between property & violence almost all of convergence occurs in a few property crimes • Problem of relying on arrest data we can’t separate changes in criminal behavior from changes in police practices

  25. Racial Patterns in Crime • Large, persistent Black/White differentials in arrest rates • Other offenses may show different pattern • Violent crimes (including domestic violence) • Property Crimes • Substance Abuse • White-Collar crimes • Organized crimes • Other crime data sources may be different • UCR vs. NCVS vs. Self-report  The racial picture is more complex if we look at all the data (not just UCR arrests)

  26. Social Classes Differences in Crime? • An old idea = hard to document empirically • “Social Class” = difficulty to define precisely • Some offensesshow differences by economic level • Violent crimes(but less for domestic violence) • Property Crimes (much smaller differences) • Substance Abuse (inconsistent differences) • White-Collar crimes • Differences depend on crime data sources • Biggest differences in arrest data • Least difference in self-report data • Overall, social class differences are arguable

  27. Characteristics of Victims? • How has highest risk of being a victim of crime? • Victims have similar profiles to Offenders • Young • Male • Minority • Poor

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