1 / 29

U.S. Metalcasting Forecast & Trends Webinar

U.S. Metalcasting Forecast & Trends Webinar. Alfred Spada Director of Marketing, PR & Communications. U.S. Metalcasting Profile U.S. Casting Forecast Global Competition. Outline. Profile of the U.S. Metalcasting Industry. 2170 Casting Facilities 700+ Ferrous; 1400+ Nonferrous

cisco
Download Presentation

U.S. Metalcasting Forecast & Trends Webinar

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. U.S. Metalcasting Forecast & TrendsWebinar Alfred Spada Director of Marketing, PR & Communications

  2. U.S. Metalcasting Profile U.S. Casting Forecast Global Competition Outline

  3. Profile of the U.S. Metalcasting Industry • 2170 Casting Facilities • 700+ Ferrous; 1400+ Nonferrous • Employs More Than 200,000 • 80% Are Small Businesses (less than 100 employees) • 2007: $32.3 Billion; 13.4 Million Tons • 2008: $33-34 Billion??; 13.4 Million Tons?? • 2nd in Production

  4. What Happened in 2007? • Imports for Light Vehicles: Forecasted at 21% of Demand; Reality is 24% of Demand • Med. To Heavy Trucks & Trailers: Forecasted 15% reduction (420,000 trucks/260,000 trailers); Reality is 25% reduction (370,000 trucks/229,000 trailers) • Housing Starts: Forecasted 3% growth; Reality 8% decline • Ductile Iron Pipe: Forecasted 2.3 million tons; Reality 2.07 million tons

  5. U.S. Production • 1955—6150 Plants • 1991—3200 Plants • 2008—2170 Plants • From ’91-’07, production capacity off only 4% • From ’91-’07, Alum growth at 91% (1.1 to 2.1 mil. Tons) • From ’91-’07, Mg growth at 331% (29,000 to 125,000 tons) • Greater number of castings produced today than in ‘91

  6. 2008 Capacity & Utilization

  7. 2008 Shipment Mix: Tons

  8. 2008 Shipment Mix: Sales

  9. Casting End-Use Markets

  10. Casting Shipments 1990-2007

  11. Projected Shipments(all metals) • 2009: 13.4 million tons$34.2 Billion in sales • 2011: 12.3 million tons; $31.8 Billion in sales • 2017: 14.14 million tons$42 billion in sales Forecast based on GDP, housing starts, auto, railcar and truck production, construction activity, end-user and supplier interviews.

  12. Shipment Forecast Through 2017

  13. Sales Forecast Through 2017

  14. What Happens in 2010-13? • Cyclical economic recession is expected every 10 years, affecting auto, rail, truck, construction, etc. • Happened in 2001, 1991, 1981, 1971, etc. • Forecasted by economic experts for 2011 • Similar Shipment tonnage as 2001 • Sales hit a low of $31.7 billion in 2011 • Truck/Trailer: 300,000/190,000 in 2012 • Freight Cars: 40,000 in 2012 • GDP: -0.2% growth in 2010-11

  15. Globalization & Imports

  16. Imports 2008 3,681,000 tons of castings 23.4% of demand (from 7% in 1998) • Gray Iron: 1,630,000 tons (29% of demand) • Ductile Iron: 576,000 tons (12% of demand) • Carbon and Low Alloy Steel: 266,000 tons (21% of demand) • Aluminum Die Castings: 334,000 tons (25% of demand) • Aluminum Permanent Mold/Sand: 566,000 tons (44% of demand) • Copper-Base: 67,000 tons (19% of demand)

  17. Imports to U.S. By Market: 2008

  18. Imports to U.S. By Country: 2008

  19. Metalcasting Across the Globe

  20. Global Production (in 000s metric tons)

  21. Global Production 2006 (metric tons) • China: 28.1 million—26,000 plants • U.S.: 12.5 million—2190 plants • Japan: 7.9 million—1701 plants • India: 7.2 million—4750 plants • Russia: 6.9 million—1900 plants • Germany: 5.5 million—619 plants • Brazil: 3.1 million—1372 plants • Italy: 2.6 million—1171 plants • France: 2.4 million—469 plants • Korea: 1.9 million—851 plants

  22. India Others China 8% Russia 31% 7% Easter Europe 2% Japan EU 9% 17% Other Asian 6% Brazil 3% U.S. 14% The Global Pie 14%

  23. Comparison of Casting Labor/Benefit Rates 2008

  24. European Markets Germany • Capacity Utilization: 92% for ductile iron, 83% for gray iron, 90% for aluminum; Maybe Higher • Normally a net exporter: 400,000 tons of ferrous casting in 2006 • 33% of gray and 30% of ductile iron production for Western Europe • Highest productivity per plant by 30% Russia • Produced 26 million tons in 1991 as Soviet Union; 7 million tons today • Suppliers love the possibilities • Capacity Utilization: 67% for ductile iron, 59% for gray iron, 92% for aluminum

  25. Latin America • Brazil • 3.1 million metric tons production • 1300 plants • Engineering Skill • Currency problems • Mexico • Nemak-largest aluminum caster in world • 1.7 million tons • Several large, rest small, no medium • Costs raising to U.S. levels

  26. China • 26,000 plants • 13.9 million tons gray, 6.8 million ductile, 3.8 million steel, 2.3 million aluminum • 15% growth from 2005-06 • Capacity Utilization: 67% gray iron and 75% for ductile iron and aluminum • Export 3.2 million tons in 2006

  27. India • 4750 Plants • 4th in the World: 4.8 million tons gray iron, 0.7 ductile, 0.9 steel, 0.5 aluminum • Since 2002, India’s output has doubled • Productivity rose 17.5% from 2005-06 • 160,000 employees

  28. Global Productivity Per Plant

  29. For Further Information • Metalcasting Forecast & Trends 2008 • Data Available By Metal, End-Use Market • Demand & Supply Forecast for Metal Castings in the U.S. (Vol 1 & 2) • Further Questions for AFS Corporate Members, email aspada@afsinc.org Thank You

More Related