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Extratropical Report: Simulating 2007 and 2005 storms in Massachusetts

Extratropical Report: Simulating 2007 and 2005 storms in Massachusetts. Don Slinn, Jeff Ren , Go Fujita Univ of Florida Coastal Engineering. MDL’s Extratropical Storm Surge. An Introduction. Anne Kramer Scientific Programmer NOAA/NWS/OST/MDL & TCA. ETSS background.

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Extratropical Report: Simulating 2007 and 2005 storms in Massachusetts

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  1. Extratropical Report: Simulating 2007 and 2005 storms in Massachusetts Don Slinn, Jeff Ren, Go Fujita Univ of Florida Coastal Engineering

  2. MDL’s ExtratropicalStorm Surge An Introduction Anne Kramer Scientific Programmer NOAA/NWS/OST/MDL & TCA

  3. ETSS background • ETSS model is based on SLOSH, but modified to use GFS winds on 1° grid • Runs 4x daily in NCEP operations • Basins updated at MDL’s discretion; updates: • Alaska, Bering Sea: 1996 • Alaska, Arctic: 1998 • Gulf of Alaska: 2008 • East Coast: 1999, 2008 • Gulf of Mexico: 1999, 2011 • West Coast: 1998, 2011

  4. ETSS background • Resolution varies • Gulf of Mexico ~ 4km • East Coast ~ 9.4km • Alaska ~ 6.7km • West Coast ~ 6.5km • Each run has a 2 day initialization and a 4 day forecast period, for a total of 6 days • Results posted to the web • http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/ (text & hydrographs) • http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/SL.us008001/ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.slosh/ (gridded data) • http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/SURGE_GOM_EAST/SURGE_GOM_EAST_96_HR.shtml (gridded)

  5. MDL’s Participation in SURA Inundation Testbed Effort • Completed • Uploaded to SURA server: • archived forecast graphs and text files for north East Coast stations for the 3 periods of interest • Projected • Reproduce gridded forecasts using archived GFS wind data • Potentially create gridded hindcasts using reanalysis GDAS winds

  6. Northeast Coast Basin: PV2

  7. 44013 44009 44005 44008

  8. 44017 44029 44025 44018

  9. 4430 44034 44037 44033

  10. Another 4 days of the 2007 storm when winds and waves were smaller

  11. 2005 Storm 100 hours

  12. 44005 44013 44008 44009

  13. 44018 44029 44025 44017

  14. 44030 44038 44034 44037

  15. Summary • Simulated 2005 and 2007 storms for 4 or 8 days • Waves heights are reasonable • In the 2007 storm, 30% of the surge is from waves • Wind fields (no pressure fields) in different formats implemented into SLOSH (no tides) • Waves on Nested grids • Operational Extratropical Slosh on coarser grid

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