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What’s Next for the Global Semiconductor Industry? Rich Goldman CEO, Synopsys Armenia VP Corporate Marketing & Stra

What’s Next for the Global Semiconductor Industry? Rich Goldman CEO, Synopsys Armenia VP Corporate Marketing & Strategic Alliances Synopsys, Inc. Sept 18, 2008 7 th IEEE EAST-WEST DESIGN & TEST SYMPOSIUM. 2007. 2008. Layoffs in the Thousands Consolidation Full Speed Ahead

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What’s Next for the Global Semiconductor Industry? Rich Goldman CEO, Synopsys Armenia VP Corporate Marketing & Stra

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  1. What’s Next for the GlobalSemiconductor Industry? • Rich Goldman • CEO, Synopsys Armenia • VP Corporate Marketing • & Strategic Alliances • Synopsys, Inc. • Sept 18, 2008 • 7th IEEE EAST-WEST DESIGN & TEST SYMPOSIUM

  2. 2007 2008 Layoffs in the Thousands Consolidation Full Speed Ahead Just Survive, Or Thrive?

  3. Length of Recession Dec ’07 - Present

  4. Semiconductor Market Went Into Freefall + Total Employment Declining* Mass Layoff Events High* + = Hot Products Using Cheaper Semis Collapse in Chipmakers Performance *Data as of August 2009

  5. Who Will Come Out Ahead? Economic Stimulus Calculator No Bull Run in the Year of the Ox

  6. Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place

  7. Semiconductor “Peak to Trough” Cycles Source: SIA WSTS; Note: 3-month average

  8. Semiconductor “Peak to Trough” Cycles Source: SIA WSTS; Note: 3-month average

  9. Semiconductor “Peak to Trough” Cycles 07/09 Source: SIA WSTS; Note: 3-month average

  10. Analysts Estimates for Semiconductor Industry • 2008 down ~3% • 2009 forecast going up from -20% • Q1 proclaimed the bottom • Source: • IC Insights – The McCleanReport, January 2009 • VLSI Research – Forecast, January 2009 • IBS – Email, April 29, 2009 • Gartner – Q109 Forecast, February 24, 2009

  11. The Restructuring of the Global Semiconductor Industry

  12. Q2’09 Semiconductor Leader Shakeup 5 10 TSMC Taiwan 10,556 8% 1,162 2,238 93% 10 13 HynixS.Korea 6,182 -33% 927 1,301 40% 12 9 AMD U.S. 5,808 -1% 1,177 1,184 1% 20 18 Freescale U.S. 4,959 -11% 798 784 -2% 22 17 Fujitsu Japan 17 19 MediaTek Taiwan 2,845 16% 704 847 20% Source: IC Insights July 2009

  13. Chipmakers were suffering even before the global economic downturn. Recession is heightening the pain and highlighting changes in structure and ownership

  14. More Industry Restructuring Rumor mill: UMC to join IBM 'fab club‘? NXP name dropped as ST-Ericsson powers ahead Speculation simmers over Intel-TSMC announcement Does Renesas-NEC Electronics merger make sense? Analysis: Is TI ready for a major analog IC acquisition? Oracle snatches Sun Microsystems for $7.4 billion Our take on Intel – Wind River European services sector to see more consolidation Trade group still wary of Taiwan's DRAM plan …

  15. Who Will Be #2 in the Foundry Space? ATIC to buy, fold Chartered into GlobalFoundries Source:  Semico Research Corp, Q3 2009 Foundry Market Trends

  16. New Semiconductor Fabs in Russia?

  17. RUSNANO Investing Despite Global Recession RUSNANO entices largest investment banks to search for international hi-tech projects to be realized in Russia Moscow, Russia | Posted on May 14th, 2009

  18. VLSI: Chipmakers’ Performance Date: 9/11/2009

  19. Wafer Fab Utilization:Beginning to Recover Towards Normal. Ratio of Silicon Consumed to Fab Capacity

  20. What Shape Will the Recovery Take? V W U Source: VLSI Research, September 2009

  21. Sooner Better Revenue Differentiate Standardize Cheaper Cost

  22. Design YOURCOMPANY Manufacturing Technology

  23. Manufacturing • Consolidation of Foundries Billion Dollar Spenders Design 2006 2007 2008 2009F UMC TI AMD Powerchip Elpida Fujitsu ST Sony SanDisk Infineon Micron Hynix Toshiba TSMC Samsung Intel ProMos Spansion AMD Powerchip Elpida Fujitsu ST Sony SanDisk Infineon Micron Hynix Toshiba TSMC Samsung Intel YOURCOMPANY Sony SanDisk Infineon Micron Hynix Toshiba TSMC Samsung Intel Manufacturing Technology TSMC Samsung Intel $45.3 $24.1 $11.5 $40.8 Amount Spent ($B) 71% 74% 56% 43% % of Total Cap Ex

  24. Technology • ROI on Moore's Law Decreasing 2 Years 2 Years ? Years 90nm 65nm 45/40nm 32/28nm Process Development Costs: 45nm: ~$1.1B 32nm: ~$1.6B

  25. Technology • Cost Must be Controlled! • Design Software Verification & Synthesis

  26. What Have We Learned

  27. Who Will Succeed?

  28. Drivers for Growth & Opportunities Within “….you’ve got smartphones, you’ve got cloud computing and data centers, you’ve got ultra mobilityfactoring into the market, you’ve got a multimedia storm coming with all these exceptionally low priced LCD TVs that pretty soon are going to be wireless connected and with touchscreens.”

  29. Convergence Drives the Recovery

  30. Smartphones Major Driver for Recovery Smartphone sales increased by 27% year/year in Q2 to 41 millions units.

  31. Sooner Better Revenue Differentiate Standardize Cheaper Cost

  32. USB3.0: Super Speed 27GB HD Video Transfer USB 3.0 USB 2.0 ~ 14 Minutes ~ 1 Minute 27GB video transfer

  33. Putting It All Together

  34. Verification & Validation SystemValidation Embedded Software Video input/output Multiple processors RF interfaces OS boot Legacy components Software codecs 3rd party IP Software-tuned analog Complex power management Legacy software High-speed external interfaces 3rd party software Standards compliance Drivers & firmware Image source: Qualcomm datasheet

  35. Market DynamicsSoftware is already a huge issue today! 65nm: SW effort 57% today! 45nm: HW effort <40% in 2011 Software a real issue today! Source: IBS

  36. Effort spent on software is growing • % of Respondents • Effort • Spent • Source: SNUG surveys 2008 & DVCon survey Feb. 2009

  37. So It’s the Software… “Phone differentiation used to be about radios and antennas and things like that. We think, going forward, the phone of the future will be differentiated by software.” Steve Jobs CEO, Apple August 11, 2008

  38. … Unless It’s The Hardware “PA Semi is going to do system-on-chips for iPhones...” Steve Jobs CEO, Apple June 10, 2008 “…a strategic choice…ensuring Apple can continue to differentiate its flagship phone...” Forbes.com April 23, 2008

  39. Total Cost of Design Specs / Architecture / Algorithms / I/O / Standards Hardware Software Design Verification Debug Develop SW Apps / Internet Protocols, … Sensors / MEMs / Antenna / Battery / Shell / … Manufacturing Download (into memories) Assembly / Test

  40. Total Cost of Design Specs / Architecture / Algorithms / I/O / Standards Hardware Software Design Verification Debug Develop SW Apps / Internet Protocols, … Sensors / MEMs / Antenna / Battery / Shell / … Manufacturing Download (into memories) Assembly / Test

  41. Cost of Verification: Out of Sight! 675% higher verification productivity needed in next 7 years Source: ITRS, 2007

  42. Building Software to Silicon Verification

  43. What’s New: Faster! • Multicore enabled • Low power verification • New unified circuit simulator • Highest throughput for mixed-signal simulation Discovery VCS VMM CustomSim

  44. New in Verification Methodology VMM-LP Industry’s 1stVerification Methodology for Low-Power

  45. HW / SW Validation NewFrontier! System-Level Hardware Software

  46. Speed! - The Critical Requirement Boot OS in 10 days Boot OS in 24 hrs. Boot OS in 15 min. Boot OS in 10 sec. RTLSimulation GSM Standard Reference Frequency 13 MHz Acceleration MPEG-2 System Time Clock 27 MHz Emulation HDTV 72 MHz USB 30 MHz FPGA Prototype 1 eps 100 eps 1 MHz 10 MHz 100 MHz System Performance (evaluations/sec or MHz Clockrates)

  47. System Prototyping: The Next Wave IP Models System-Level VirtualPrototyping Hardware Software RapidPrototyping Transistor RTL / VIP TLM Apps OS Drivers

  48. Top Down: Virtual Prototyping • Simulatable model of system before RTL • Start software 9-12 months before silicon • SystemC TLM 2.0 – Very fast

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