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Project title: Google African Meningitis Project. Goal: Provide weather forecast information to the World Health Organization, Benin Chad, Nigeria, Togo, relevant to vaccinate dissemination decision-making. Sponsor : Google non-profit wing Current and Anticipated Funding

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Project title google african meningitis project
Project title:Google African Meningitis Project

  • Goal:Provide weather forecast information to the World Health Organization, Benin Chad, Nigeria, Togo, relevant to vaccinate dissemination decision-making.

  • Sponsor: Google non-profit wing

  • Current and Anticipated Funding

    • Calendar Year 2009: $230K

    • Calendar Year 2010: $230K

    • Calendar Year 2011 $230K

    • Calendar Year 2012: $210K

  • Participants:

    • RAL: T. Hopson, M. Hayden, Arnaud Dumont, MukulTewari, Raj Pandya (UCAR), Tom Yoksas (UNIDATA)

  • New Opportunities

    • Utilization of Thorpex-Tigge multi-center ensemble; medium-range disease forecasting


Significant Accomplishments to Date

-- context and weather linkages

  • Meningitis endemic in Africa

  • Sporadic large epidemics (1996-1997:, 250,000 cases)

    • 5-10% fatality rate

    • 10-20% of survivors have permanent impacts: hearing loss, brain damage, learning disabilities

  • Vaccine in very limited supply

  • Risk = f(Relative Humidity)

  • We can forecast RH & vaccines can be pre-positioned for maximum effectiveness

  • Weekly telecons with WHO, Chad, Nigeria, Togo, Benin on 2-week epidemic outlook

  • High Epidemic Risk when Dry

    Low Risk when Wet

    National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)


    Significant Accomplishments to Date

    -- context and weather linkages

    Relative humidity

    across the Meningitis

    Belt forecast 1 week

    in advance …

    Within dashed region,

    risk has doubled

    (above background levels)

    … converted to

    probability of an

    epidemic alert occurring

    across the Belt

    3 weeks in advance

    National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)


    Capabilities demonstrated weekly who telecons today
    Capabilities Demonstrated-- weekly WHO telecons (today)

    • Determined weather variables impacting meningitis incidence (RH)

    • Employing Thorpex-Tigge ensemble operationally

    • Providing weekly telecon 1- and 2-wk ahead forecast updates on meningitis belt status to WHO/countries

    Comparison with 2011 for the same week …

    … and the climatological state for the same week

    Today’s telecon 2-week ahead RH forecast (epidemiological week 17) for the ECMWF ensemble mean


    Capabilities demonstrated africa decision information system
    Capabilities Demonstrated-- Africa Decision Information System


    Capabilities Demonstrated-- Africa Decision Information System (cont)


    Capabilities Demonstrated-- Africa Decision Information System (cont)


    Capabilities Demonstrated-- Africa Decision Information System (cont)


    Capabilities Demonstrated-- next steps

    Climatology of West Africa

    SH

    SHL

    January

    July

    World Survey of Climatology, 1972



    Unique Datasets/Software Created

    Thorpex-Tigge

    UKMO

    CMC

    CMA

    ECMWF

    MeteoFrance

    NCAR

    NCEP

    JMA

    KMA

    NCDC

    IDD/LDM

    HTTP

    FTP

    Archive Centre

    CPTEC

    BoM

    Current Data Provider

    Unidata IDD/LDM

    Internet Data Distribution / Local Data Manager

    Commodity internet application to send and receive data



    Unique Datasets/Software Created

    Thorpex-Tigge -- fields


    Additional science … quantile regression

    Our application

    Fitting T quantiles using QR conditioned on:

    Ranked forecast ens

    ensemble mean

    ensemble median

    4) ensemble stdev

    5) Persistence


    Space-Time Continuum: Where are you?

    Mark with an X where your projects are now and where you anticipate being in the future

    107 m

    105 m

    X

    Spatial Scale

    103 m

    101 m

    min

    decade to century

    hour

    day

    season

    Time Scale


    Project title assessing the ensemble spread error relationship
    Project title:Assessing the ensemble spread-error relationship


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