project title google african meningitis project
Download
Skip this Video
Download Presentation
Project title: Google African Meningitis Project

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 19

Project title: Google African Meningitis Project - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 82 Views
  • Uploaded on

Project title: Google African Meningitis Project. Goal: Provide weather forecast information to the World Health Organization, Benin Chad, Nigeria, Togo, relevant to vaccinate dissemination decision-making. Sponsor : Google non-profit wing Current and Anticipated Funding

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' Project title: Google African Meningitis Project' - carr


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
project title google african meningitis project
Project title:Google African Meningitis Project
  • Goal:Provide weather forecast information to the World Health Organization, Benin Chad, Nigeria, Togo, relevant to vaccinate dissemination decision-making.
  • Sponsor: Google non-profit wing
  • Current and Anticipated Funding
    • Calendar Year 2009: $230K
    • Calendar Year 2010: $230K
    • Calendar Year 2011 $230K
    • Calendar Year 2012: $210K
  • Participants:
    • RAL: T. Hopson, M. Hayden, Arnaud Dumont, MukulTewari, Raj Pandya (UCAR), Tom Yoksas (UNIDATA)
  • New Opportunities
    • Utilization of Thorpex-Tigge multi-center ensemble; medium-range disease forecasting
slide2

Significant Accomplishments to Date

-- context and weather linkages

  • Meningitis endemic in Africa
  • Sporadic large epidemics (1996-1997:, 250,000 cases)
      • 5-10% fatality rate
      • 10-20% of survivors have permanent impacts: hearing loss, brain damage, learning disabilities
  • Vaccine in very limited supply
  • Risk = f(Relative Humidity)
  • We can forecast RH & vaccines can be pre-positioned for maximum effectiveness
  • Weekly telecons with WHO, Chad, Nigeria, Togo, Benin on 2-week epidemic outlook

High Epidemic Risk when Dry

Low Risk when Wet

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

slide3

Significant Accomplishments to Date

-- context and weather linkages

Relative humidity

across the Meningitis

Belt forecast 1 week

in advance …

Within dashed region,

risk has doubled

(above background levels)

… converted to

probability of an

epidemic alert occurring

across the Belt

3 weeks in advance

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

capabilities demonstrated weekly who telecons today
Capabilities Demonstrated-- weekly WHO telecons (today)
  • Determined weather variables impacting meningitis incidence (RH)
  • Employing Thorpex-Tigge ensemble operationally
  • Providing weekly telecon 1- and 2-wk ahead forecast updates on meningitis belt status to WHO/countries

Comparison with 2011 for the same week …

… and the climatological state for the same week

Today’s telecon 2-week ahead RH forecast (epidemiological week 17) for the ECMWF ensemble mean

slide9

Capabilities Demonstrated-- next steps

Climatology of West Africa

SH

SHL

January

July

World Survey of Climatology, 1972

slide11

Unique Datasets/Software Created

Thorpex-Tigge

UKMO

CMC

CMA

ECMWF

MeteoFrance

NCAR

NCEP

JMA

KMA

NCDC

IDD/LDM

HTTP

FTP

Archive Centre

CPTEC

BoM

Current Data Provider

Unidata IDD/LDM

Internet Data Distribution / Local Data Manager

Commodity internet application to send and receive data

slide13

Unique Datasets/Software Created

Thorpex-Tigge -- fields

slide14

Additional science … quantile regression

Our application

Fitting T quantiles using QR conditioned on:

Ranked forecast ens

ensemble mean

ensemble median

4) ensemble stdev

5) Persistence

slide15

Space-Time Continuum: Where are you?

Mark with an X where your projects are now and where you anticipate being in the future

107 m

105 m

X

Spatial Scale

103 m

101 m

min

decade to century

hour

day

season

Time Scale

slide17

a)

b)

c)

d)

e)

f)

h)

g)

slide18

b)

a)

c)

d)

f)

e)

slide19

b)

a)

c)

d)

f)

e)

ad